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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
WMT
Primary Facts
Discount Stores
Name:
-
Sector:
644.00M
Industry:
133
CEO:
Mr. C. Douglas McMillon
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.65655571
19.39617674
Walmart Inc. (XNYS:WMT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
WALMART INC. (XNYS:WMT)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$133.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$135.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$133.41
Price Upper limit ($) :
$137.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P59
This week:
$128.58
This month :
$123.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.71B
Market Cap Classification:
359.53B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-11.38%
$113.24
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$144.10
11.71%
$121.90
$153.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$139.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.49
$126.98
$141.03
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Discount Stores
Sharpe Ratio:
WMT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.32%
-0.454116299
Sharpe ratio is -45.41% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Discount Stores
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.15%
Yearly returns:
7.08%
Comparison of returns:
-0.469620246
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -46.96% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
WMT is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.76
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -44.48% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.63%
Monthly Volatility:
3.65%
Yearly Volatility:
7.30%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
31.82%
-34.56%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.56% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.32%
Monthly VaR:
-7.43%
How Much Can the price of
Discount Stores
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$115.97
This translates to price declining to:
-13%
This translates to price declining to:
-51.47%
Severe Crash Probability
-14.86%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-10.16%
WMT is a 4.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -10.16% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
WMT is a 4.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Discount Stores
0.530
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.405
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.583
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.53
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -24.46% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.343
-0.324
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -32.44% lower than peers
-0.244600212
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -9.44% below industry mean WACC
-71.38%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.824
-0.944
0.193
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Discount Stores
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 19% compared to market & is healthy
-0.148
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -14.77% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.27%
Overall debt rating:
1.80%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.27%
-9.44%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $35.90
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -39.72% below the industry mean
-47.11%
EPS:
Twelve Billion Seven Hundred Forty-Six Million Three Hundred Forty-Seven Thousand Five Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -66.31% lower than the industry
52.15%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -23.39% below the industry mean
-
-0.949376506
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.89%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -52% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Discount Stores
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -71.38% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.55
0.14448279
107.8682144
0.232986017
$1.12
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $55.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$212.22
-0.397205294
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -39.72% below the industry mean
-
-0.663123628
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -47.11% below industry average
-9.07%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -9.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 11.92%
$0.56
Previous Dividend: $0.56
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.56
Previous Dividend: $2.22
Expected next dividend best case: $0.57
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.55
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/02/2022
2022-03-17--$0.56
2021-08-12--$0.55
2022-05-05--$0.56
2021-12-09--$0.55
2021-05-06--$0.55
-0.987222495
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
51.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
16.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
72.77%
-63.15%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -63.15% below industry average
-0.92
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-100.18%
0.89%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
13.77639315
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.25%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.466
-5.49%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.466
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.217
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
-0.003
12.626
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.072
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Discount Stores
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
143.44B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -55.80% lower than the industry
-17.19%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
143.44B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-0.039175294
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -29.30% lower than the industry
-31.32%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -17.19% lower than the industry
-29.30%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -92.11% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -31.32% lower than the industry
-0.276757855
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$21.00
-1.594958134
Current ratio is -27.68% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -94.94% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -159.50% below industry average
-0.32844912
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -33% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.524189055
Profit generated per employee:
$10.91
-63%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -63% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.738566351
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -74% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.738566351
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Discount Stores
$189.89
THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (XNYS:PG)
THE COCA-COLA COMPANY (XNYS:KO)
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM)
THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:EL)
DIAGEO PLC (XNYS:DEO)
TARGET CORPORATION (XNYS:TGT)
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (XNYS:BUD)
Altria Group, Inc. (XNYS:MO)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.65
Strong buy�33%
Buy�29%
Hold�63%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
4/30/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
576.01B
432.58B
100%
-
-
119.09B
-
-
551.66B
164.00M
1.43B
10.68B
21%
4.52B
- 6598000.00K
12%
4.52B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.73B
Differed Income Tax :
2.66B
Stock Based Compensation :
- 155000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
- 5239000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1004000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4250000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.86B
Investments in PP&E:
2.86B
Net Acquisitions:
- 2214000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
7.94B
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/30/2021
2022
Q1
22.85B
-
22.85B
5.80B
46.38B
1.57B
76.59B
108.63B
28.87B
-
-
-
22.49B
159.99B
-
236.58B
48.15B
5.82B
851.00M
-
26.87B
80.84B
57.01B
-
71.15B
-
151.99B
280.00M
82.58B
- 7946000.0K
Value
119.09B
3.42B
78.34B
230.32B
-
62.82B
-
-
129.00M
5.85B
- 510000.00K
-
- 2809000.00K
- 1549000.00K
- 531000.00K
- 5399000.00K
- 51000.00K
5.11B
22.89B
17.79B
2.86B
- 2214000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
236.9408892
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Discount Stores
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
165.0988731
$165.10
$170.97
$177.06
$183.36