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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
WM
Primary Facts
Waste Management
Name:
-
Sector:
840.00M
Industry:
168.45
CEO:
Mr. James Fish
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.750946698
-0.474996981
Waste Management, Inc. (XNYS:WM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
WASTE MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:WM)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$169.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$172.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$169.04
Price Upper limit ($) :
$177.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P227
This week:
$162.97
This month :
$156.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
413.34M
Market Cap Classification:
69.92B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-11.12%
$143.93
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$182.03
9.05%
$154.87
$193.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$175.65
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$143.04
$161.25
$178.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Waste Management
Sharpe Ratio:
WM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.41%
0.649922955
Sharpe ratio is 64.99% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Waste Management
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.37%
Yearly returns:
17.61%
Comparison of returns:
0.151961917
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 15.20% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
WM is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.83
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 74.76% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.62%
Monthly Volatility:
3.62%
Yearly Volatility:
7.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
31.59%
-54.31%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.31% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.25%
Monthly VaR:
-7.28%
How Much Can the price of
Waste Management
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$148.19
This translates to price declining to:
-12%
This translates to price declining to:
-50.42%
Severe Crash Probability
-14.55%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-12.00%
WM is a 2.72% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -12.00% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
WM is a 2.72% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Waste Management
0.763
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.562
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.626
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -26.06% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.316
-0.207
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -20.69% lower than peers
-0.260631666
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -20.22% below industry mean WACC
-8.02%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.885
0.820
5.882
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Waste Management
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 588% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.180
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -18.03% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.62%
Overall debt rating:
2.07%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.62%
-20.22%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $42.68
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 56.10% above the industry mean
117.54%
EPS:
One Billion Eight Hundred Eighty Million Eight Hundred Eighty-Seven Thousand Seven Hundred Ten Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -16.57% lower than the industry
-31.53%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 119.83% above the industry mean
-
-2.02703057
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.92%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 66% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Waste Management
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -8.02% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.93
0.319997934
113.0205883
0.490436412
$5.73
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $60.34
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$44.71
0.561037835
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 56.10% above the industry mean
-
-0.165710604
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 117.54% above the industry average
-106.94%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -106.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 14.41%
$0.65
Previous Dividend: $0.65
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.65
Previous Dividend: $2.45
Expected next dividend best case: $0.69
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.61
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.57
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.49%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-16--$0.65
2021-09-02--$0.58
2022-06-02--$0.65
2021-12-02--$0.58
2021-06-03--$0.58
-1.194784879
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
186.62%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
45.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
182.70%
-27.44%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -27.44% below industry average
0.30
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.8x
-127.64%
15.92%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
24.6615704
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.20%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.686
22.63%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.686
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.47
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.052
Kurtosis
0.049
9.395
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.446
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Waste Management
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
6.98B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 78.07% higher than the industry
187.73%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
6.98B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.31%
-0.066059787
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 60.24% higher than the industry
130.26%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 187.73% higher than the industry
60.24%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 29.91% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 130.26% higher than the industry
-0.412474398
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$31.58
-1.195076332
Current ratio is -41.25% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -202.70% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -119.51% below industry average
0.242053427
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 24% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.662735735
Profit generated per employee:
$11.70
85%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 85% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
1.976169259
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 198% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
1.976169259
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Waste Management
$226.27
EATON CORPORATION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:ETN)
FEDEX CORPORATION (XNYS:FDX)
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LIMITED (XNYS:CP)
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:NOC)
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION (XNYS:GD)
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC. (XNYS:ITW)
EMERSON ELECTRIC CO. (XNYS:EMR)
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC (XNYS:JCI)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.53
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
18.48B
11.50B
151%
-
1.86B
1.86B
-
2.05B
15.41B
-
353.00M
2.01B
105%
565.00M
- 608000.00K
53%
565.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
514.00M
Differed Income Tax :
482.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 11000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
25.00M
Accounts Receivables:
182.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 11000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
66.00M
Investments in PP&E:
1.26B
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
155.00M
-
155.00M
2.48B
149.00M
276.00M
3.06B
14.30B
9.03B
868.00M
625.00M
-
1.34B
26.16B
-
29.22B
1.38B
435.00M
-
600.00M
1.39B
3.81B
13.05B
3.54B
18.27B
-
22.07B
6.00M
12.25B
15.0M
Value
3.91B
-
7.14B
29.22B
-
13.49B
-
-
- 568000.00K
- 572000.00K
- 2471000.00K
-
- 250000.00K
- 275000.00K
2.36B
- 635000.00K
1.00M
52.00M
246.00M
194.00M
1.26B
- 418000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-23.49372823
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Waste Management
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
185.2756321
$185.28
$194.77
$204.75
$215.24