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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
WAFD
Primary Facts
Banks�Regional
Name:
-
Sector:
24.07M
Industry:
31.53
CEO:
Mr. Brent Beardall
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.727913705
3.567100351
Washington Federal, Inc. (XNAS:WAFD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
WASHINGTON FEDERAL, INC. (XNAS:WAFD)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$31.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.67
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P546
This week:
$29.89
This month :
$27.87
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
65.32M
Market Cap Classification:
2.02B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.58%
$24.22
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.67
15.41%
$27.39
$39.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.94
$29.26
$34.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Banks�Regional
Sharpe Ratio:
WAFD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.23%
-0.962580081
Sharpe ratio is -96.26% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Banks�Regional
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.05%
Yearly returns:
2.40%
Comparison of returns:
-0.779785903
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -77.98% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
WAFD is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.80
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -97.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.53%
Monthly Volatility:
5.66%
Yearly Volatility:
11.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
49.33%
-89.38%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.38% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.19%
Monthly VaR:
-11.60%
How Much Can the price of
Banks�Regional
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$25.10
This translates to price declining to:
-20%
This translates to price declining to:
-80.36%
Severe Crash Probability
-23.20%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
40.27%
WAFD is a 63.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
WAFD is a 63.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Banks�Regional
0.799
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.837
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.62
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.80
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -17.10% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.49
-0.237
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -23.75% lower than peers
-0.17096378
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -29.05% below industry mean WACC
-33.40%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.877
-6.361
-3.959
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Banks�Regional
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -396% below the market average
-0.116
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -11.57% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.98%
Overall debt rating:
3.15%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.98%
-29.05%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -19.45% below the industry mean
7.12%
EPS:
One Hundred Seventy-Eight Million Nine Hundred Forty-Three Thousand Nine Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.68% lower than the industry
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -28.38% below the industry mean
-
0.32305931
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 44.87%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -31% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Banks�Regional
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -33.40% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.36
-0.165339532
33.99966942
-0.072638042
$2.68
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.07
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$9.15
-0.194462323
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -19.45% below the industry mean
-
-0.546798863
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 7.12% above the industry average
-89.88%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -89.88% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 9.30%
$0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.94
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.37%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
2022-02-03--$0.24
2021-08-05--$0.23
2022-05-19--$0.24
2021-11-04--$0.23
2021-05-06--$0.23
-0.941842149
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-7.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-0.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
80.03%
-94.83%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.83% below industry average
4.75
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.1x
-11560.91%
44.87%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
14.43767205
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.42%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.484
-3.43%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.484
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.234
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.034
Kurtosis
0.051
7.491
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.035
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Banks�Regional
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
153.38M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -6.86% lower than the industry
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
153.38M
Effective Tax Rate:
0.70%
-0.016832709
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -56.67% lower than the industry
-22.21%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-
-56.67%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 475.42% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.21% lower than the industry
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$26.33
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 32.31% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-0.243407894
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.305130223
Profit generated per employee:
$5.00
-32%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.860976094
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.860976094
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Banks�Regional
$45.42
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SASR)
WESBANCO, INC. (XNAS:WSBC)
COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CLBK)
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
BANCFIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BANF)
TOWNE BANK (XNAS:TOWN)
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.74
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
597.87M
-
100%
-
259.13M
259.13M
-
-
-
598.31M
68.53M
5.25M
218%
53.61M
-
169%
53.61M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
50.28M
Differed Income Tax :
7.94M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
1.39M
Accounts Receivables:
- 32838.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1397.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
64.00K
Investments in PP&E:
26.84M
Net Acquisitions:
- 2771.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
12/31/2021
2022
Q1
1.88B
1.95B
3.83B
51.75M
-
14.59B
18.47B
253.49M
303.46M
6.29M
2.27B
-
-
2.84B
22.81B
19.97B
-
-
2.73M
-
-
-
1.72B
-
1.72B
19.54B
17.82B
136.20M
1.56B
61.9M
Value
-
90.72M
2.15B
19.97B
4.22B
1.72B
-
214.04M
- 758037.00K
- 546772.00K
- 1400000.00K
-
- 2973.00K
- 18555.00K
1.73B
309.77M
-
- 210162.00K
1.88B
2.09B
26.84M
- 2771.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
10327.20549
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Banks�Regional
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
36.8432381
$36.84
$38.82
$40.91
$43.10