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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
VMW
Primary Facts
Software�Infrastructure
Name:
-
Sector:
1.20B
Industry:
115.66
CEO:
Mr. Patrick Gelsinger
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-5.09284816
-9.866232066
Vmware, Inc. (XNYS:VMW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
VMWARE, INC. (XNYS:VMW)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$116.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$118.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$116.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$120.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P472
This week:
$109.89
This month :
$102.75
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
423.02M
Market Cap Classification:
48.44B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-11.53%
$89.84
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$130.31
24.78%
$101.01
$142.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$123.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$88.84
$107.56
$126.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Software�Infrastructure
Sharpe Ratio:
VMW, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.63%
-1.46754706
Sharpe ratio is -146.75% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Software�Infrastructure
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
-0.01%
Monthly returns:
-0.05%
Yearly returns:
-2.33%
Comparison of returns:
-1.161838606
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -116.18% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
VMW is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.71
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -133.54% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.43%
Monthly Volatility:
5.43%
Yearly Volatility:
10.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
47.30%
-62.82%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.82% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.99%
Monthly VaR:
-11.16%
How Much Can the price of
Software�Infrastructure
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$92.69
This translates to price declining to:
-20%
This translates to price declining to:
-77.35%
Severe Crash Probability
-22.33%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
35.01%
VMW is a 57.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 35.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
VMW is a 57.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Software�Infrastructure
0.670
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.679
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.565
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.67
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -39.77% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.437
-0.462
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -46.22% lower than peers
-0.397702306
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -24.87% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.799
-3.782
-6.407
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Software�Infrastructure
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -641% below the market average
-0.281
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -28.13% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
-3.08%
Overall debt rating:
-2.43%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-3.08%
-24.87%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -53.66% below the industry mean
-39.80%
EPS:
One Billion Six Hundred Thirty Million Nine Hundred Ninety-Two Thousand One Hundred Fifty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -76.19% lower than the industry
-133.66%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -68.77% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -549.56% lower than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 48% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Software�Infrastructure
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.1
-0.523316569
252.4615314
-0.541870798
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$22.72
-0.536573145
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -53.66% below the industry mean
-
-0.761885674
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -39.80% below industry average
-97.06%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -97.06% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
$27.40
Previous Dividend: $27.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $27.40
Previous Dividend: $27.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $27.40
-
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 27/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 11/01/2021
Previous dividend record date: 29/10/2021
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/10/2021
--$0.00
--$0.00
2021-11-02--$27.40
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
0.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
62.20%
-70.73%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.73% below industry average
-0.90
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-108.82%
0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
19.07009413
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.42%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.589
22.78%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.589
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.347
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
-0.016
18.413
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
1.131
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Software�Infrastructure
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
6.85B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -280.73% lower than the industry
-295.98%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
6.85B
Effective Tax Rate:
12.75%
-0.53567821
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -288.99% lower than the industry
-79.57%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -295.98% lower than the industry
-288.99%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -90.50% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -79.57% lower than the industry
-0.532590712
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$13.90
-0.391804048
Current ratio is -53.26% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -39.18% below industry average
-0.349490427
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -35% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.480963652
Profit generated per employee:
$8.58
163%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 163% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.61170535
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 61% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.61170535
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
11.66%
-5.495614351
Competitors/Peer firms of
Software�Infrastructure
$175.93
TE Connectivity Ltd (XNYS:TEL)
PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:PANW)
AMPHENOL CORPORATION (XNYS:APH)
SUNSTONE METALS LTD (XASX:STM)
DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNYS:DELL)
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNYS:MSI)
HP INC. (XNYS:HPQ)
ARISTA NETWORKS, INC. (XNYS:ANET)
Current Analyst Ratings
$3.87
Strong buy�38%
Buy�54%
Hold�58%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/29/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.61B
2.76B
-277%
3.83B
1.32B
6.44B
5.12B
-
13.03B
-
- 181000.00K
1.40B
740%
351.00M
177.00M
617%
351.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
425.00M
Differed Income Tax :
269.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 48000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
263.00M
Accounts Receivables:
320.00M
Other Working Capital:
65.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
571.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
37.00M
Investments in PP&E:
1.27B
Net Acquisitions:
- 70000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 10000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/30/2021
2022
Q1
5.59B
120.00M
5.71B
2.29B
-
537.00M
8.54B
1.34B
9.60B
926.00M
-
5.82B
2.59B
20.28B
-
28.81B
205.00M
-
-
5.83B
1.81B
7.85B
5.88B
1.26B
11.51B
-
19.36B
4.00M
7.49B
- 3000.0K
Value
10.27B
1.96B
9.45B
28.81B
-
5.88B
-
8.00M
-
- 72000.00K
- 1000.00K
131.00M
- 427000.00K
-
-
- 297000.00K
-
897.00M
5.67B
4.77B
1.27B
- 70000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
2590.309054
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Software�Infrastructure
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
147.5331301
$147.53
$154.17
$161.11
$168.36