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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
VMC
Primary Facts
Building Materials
Name:
-
Sector:
15.20M
Industry:
164.95
CEO:
Mr. J. Thomas Hill
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-1.627543129
-1.619361327
Vulcan Materials Company (XNYS:VMC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY (XNYS:VMC)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$165.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$169.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$165.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$173.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P475
This week:
$156.65
This month :
$146.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
132.90M
Market Cap Classification:
21.85B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-17.61%
$127.81
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$185.77
17.77%
$144.13
$203.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$176.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$126.42
$153.67
$180.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Building Materials
Sharpe Ratio:
VMC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.11%
-0.169737654
Sharpe ratio is -16.97% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Building Materials
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.26%
Yearly returns:
12.52%
Comparison of returns:
-0.223899472
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.39% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
VMC is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.60
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -23.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.48%
Monthly Volatility:
5.54%
Yearly Volatility:
11.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
48.28%
-75.13%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.13% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.03%
Monthly VaR:
-11.26%
How Much Can the price of
Building Materials
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$133.09
This translates to price declining to:
-19%
This translates to price declining to:
-77.99%
Severe Crash Probability
-22.51%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
36.14%
VMC is a 58.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 36.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
VMC is a 58.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Building Materials
0.796
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.677
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.614
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.80
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -12.20% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.516
-0.192
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -19.19% lower than peers
-0.121964665
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -9.74% below industry mean WACC
-50.11%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.869
-0.422
2.492
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Building Materials
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 249% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.081
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -8.09% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.26%
Overall debt rating:
2.58%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.26%
-9.74%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.41
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -2.96% below the industry mean
-12.34%
EPS:
Five Hundred Ninety-Nine Million Three Hundred Sixty Thousand Nine Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-89.50%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -13.18% below the industry mean
-
-2.129439928
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.17%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -40% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Building Materials
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -50.11% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.13
0.656753195
98.35741832
0.677046865
$3.80
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.59
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$45.33
-0.029550331
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -2.96% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -12.34% below industry average
-45.90%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -45.90% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 8.84%
$0.40
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.17
Expected next dividend best case: $0.42
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.38
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -8.15%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/05/2022
2022-02-28--$0.40
2021-11-15--$0.37
2022-05-26--$0.40
2021-11-16--$2.00
2021-08-17--$0.37
-0.797863939
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
32.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
68.53%
-18.13%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -18.13% below industry average
-0.82
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
376.00%
2.17%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
19.35823991
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.37%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.595
-2.84%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.595
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.354
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.022
Kurtosis
0.031
9.803
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.075
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Building Materials
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.41B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -39.14% lower than the industry
-8.17%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.41B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.25%
0.003933523
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -51.26% lower than the industry
-46.46%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -8.17% lower than the industry
-51.26%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -82.11% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -46.46% lower than the industry
0.268725444
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$33.91
3.453170332
Current ratio is 26.87% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -212.94% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 345.32% above industry average
-0.184454156
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -18% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.401642478
Profit generated per employee:
$10.64
-49%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -49% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.907829868
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.907829868
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Building Materials
$225.09
ALBEMARLE CORPORATION (XNYS:ALB)
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS, INC. (XNYS:MLM)
Franco-Nevada Corporation (XNYS:FNV)
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:GOLD)
LyondellBasell Industries NV (XNYS:LYB)
NUCOR CORPORATION (XNYS:NUE)
AVANTOR, INC. (XNYS:AVTR)
CORTEVA, INC. (XNYS:CTVA)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.51
Strong buy�29%
Buy�21%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.02B
4.61B
95%
-
-
448.06M
-
62.22M
5.12B
1.00M
150.47M
503.63M
95%
158.15M
- 144183.00K
52%
158.15M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
92.10M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.10M
Change in Working Capital :
7.50M
Accounts Receivables:
- 77800.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
152.70M
Investments in PP&E:
175.60M
Net Acquisitions:
- 160400.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 148200.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
123.10M
-
123.10M
917.90M
524.50M
97.10M
1.66B
6.41B
3.71B
1.75B
36.50M
-
295.30M
12.20B
-
13.86B
-
103.90M
-
-
788.80M
892.70M
4.51B
689.10M
6.37B
-
7.26B
132.90M
3.79B
- 151600.0K
Value
510.27M
-
6.58B
13.84B
-
4.61B
-
-
6.10M
- 302500.00K
- 99800.00K
-
-
- 53200.00K
171.40M
18.40M
-
- 108500.00K
133.00M
241.50M
175.60M
- 160400.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-159.5587416
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Building Materials
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
182.7182258
$182.72
$192.50
$202.80
$213.65