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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
TWNK
Primary Facts
Packaged Foods
Name:
-
Sector:
6.67M
Industry:
22.87
CEO:
Mr. Andrew Callahan
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-1.338897813
-0.248348472
Hostess Brands, Inc. (XNAS:TWNK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
HOSTESS BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:TWNK)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$22.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.75
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P38
This week:
$22.13
This month :
$21.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
136.50M
Market Cap Classification:
3.11B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-9.69%
$19.57
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.69
8.16%
$21.05
$26.29
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.45
$21.91
$24.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaged Foods
Sharpe Ratio:
TWNK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.31%
2.507807442
Sharpe ratio is 250.78% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaged Foods
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.42%
Yearly returns:
19.92%
Comparison of returns:
1.36616878
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 136.62% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
TWNK is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.93
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 101.69% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.61%
Monthly Volatility:
3.61%
Yearly Volatility:
7.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
31.44%
-77.57%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.57% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.23%
Monthly VaR:
-7.22%
How Much Can the price of
Packaged Foods
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$20.17
This translates to price declining to:
-12%
This translates to price declining to:
-50.03%
Severe Crash Probability
-14.44%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-12.67%
TWNK is a 1.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -12.67% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
TWNK is a 1.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaged Foods
0.572
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.302
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.498
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -2.34% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.391
-0.136
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -13.56% lower than peers
-0.023407524
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 1.32% above industry mean WACC
-29.30%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.704
9.238
8.180
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaged Foods
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 818% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.013
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -1.31% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.55%
Overall debt rating:
2.80%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.55%
1.32%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 11.37% above the industry mean
-94.29%
EPS:
One Hundred Twenty-Seven Million Two Hundred Twenty-Four Thousand Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-18.53%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -62.76% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.25%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -10% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaged Foods
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -29.30% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.86
-0.356692114
35.5490621
-0.356663759
$0.87
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$8.85
0.113719387
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 11.37% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.29% below industry average
309.94%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 309.94% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 168.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
24.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
62.29%
-42.52%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.52% below industry average
-0.97
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.4x
-100.40%
0.25%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
13.26601355
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.19%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.452
5.37%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.452
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.204
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.066
Kurtosis
0.061
4.534
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.021
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaged Foods
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
430.09M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 117.90% higher than the industry
263.45%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
430.09M
Effective Tax Rate:
1.84%
-0.367196519
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -19.60% lower than the industry
-34.65%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 263.45% higher than the industry
-19.60%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -97.29% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -34.65% lower than the industry
-0.155464798
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$8.04
-0.594827875
Current ratio is -15.55% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -59.48% below industry average
-0.409441508
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.102945149
Profit generated per employee:
$1.93
-6%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -6% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.689001361
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -169% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.689001361
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaged Foods
$34.31
KRISPY KREME, INC. (XNAS:DNUT)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (XNAS:GO)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
PRICESMART, INC. (XNAS:PSMT)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.92
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.21B
778.58M
142%
-
106.66M
195.95M
89.29M
23.51M
998.04M
-
39.41M
52.29M
87%
44.19M
- 40724.00K
57%
44.19M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.56M
Differed Income Tax :
13.30M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.32M
Change in Working Capital :
2.34M
Accounts Receivables:
- 26740.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.56M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
750.00K
Investments in PP&E:
31.53M
Net Acquisitions:
- 23034.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
238.43M
-
238.43M
193.09M
59.87M
6.97M
498.36M
354.06M
706.62M
1.94B
-
-
42.82M
3.04B
-
3.54B
90.59M
14.13M
10.20M
-
110.40M
215.12M
1.10B
135.84M
1.56B
-
1.78B
14.00K
509.96M
17.7M
Value
219.46M
-
1.76B
3.54B
-
1.11B
-
-
- 1825.00K
- 24859.00K
- 2792.00K
-
- 9680.00K
-
- 4997.00K
- 17469.00K
74.00K
- 10728.00K
238.43M
249.16M
31.53M
- 24859.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-3.609440428
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaged Foods
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
29.50188633
$29.50
$30.64
$31.81
$33.04