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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
TSCO
Primary Facts
Specialty Retail
Name:
-
Sector:
- 53321.00K
Industry:
187.6
CEO:
Mr. Harry Lawton
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.283580906
-2.357834542
Tractor Supply Company (XNAS:TSCO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (XNAS:TSCO)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$188.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$193.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$188.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$198.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P174
This week:
$179.57
This month :
$169.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
111.00M
Market Cap Classification:
20.87B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.52%
$151.71
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$207.38
10.64%
$167.82
$224.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$197.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$150.41
$177.21
$201.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Specialty Retail
Sharpe Ratio:
TSCO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.86%
0.800884387
Sharpe ratio is 80.09% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Specialty Retail
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.60%
Yearly returns:
28.59%
Comparison of returns:
-0.181187617
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.12% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
TSCO is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.44
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 125.99% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.14%
Monthly Volatility:
4.79%
Yearly Volatility:
9.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
41.74%
-34.63%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.63% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.28%
Monthly VaR:
-9.57%
How Much Can the price of
Specialty Retail
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$158.43
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-66.28%
Severe Crash Probability
-19.13%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
15.69%
TSCO is a 35.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 15.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
TSCO is a 35.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Specialty Retail
0.903
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.505
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.624
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -36.87% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.356
-0.404
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -40.40% lower than peers
-0.368714871
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -32.76% below industry mean WACC
9.67%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.882
-0.124
12.261
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Specialty Retail
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1226% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.279
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -27.90% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.68%
Overall debt rating:
0.53%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.68%
-32.76%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -60.51% below the industry mean
135.85%
EPS:
Nine Hundred Seventy-Four Million Four Hundred Ninety-Two Thousand Two Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 78.20% higher than the industry
-36.51%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 840.62% above the industry mean
-
0.389548402
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Specialty Retail
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 9.67% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.72
-0.036912526
187.3519954
0.001323736
$3.34
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$116.78
-0.605098891
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -60.51% below the industry mean
-
0.781952312
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 135.85% above the industry average
-120.58%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -120.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 10.32%
$0.92
Previous Dividend: $0.92
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.92
Previous Dividend: $2.88
Expected next dividend best case: $1.09
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.75
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 12.12%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
2022-02-17--$0.92
2021-08-20--$0.52
2022-05-24--$0.92
2021-11-19--$0.52
2021-05-21--$0.52
-55.24007678
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
196.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
45.68%
Net debt to assets ratio:
198.50%
-36.11%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -36.11% below industry average
1.45
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.9x
191.19%
0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
16.91468931
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.24%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.543
14.20%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.543
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.295
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.012
Kurtosis
-0.015
5.942
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.681
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Specialty Retail
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
4.55B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 19.01% higher than the industry
56.68%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
4.55B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.23%
-0.002860596
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 40.24% higher than the industry
3838.88%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 56.68% higher than the industry
40.24%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 145.43% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 3838.88% higher than the industry
-0.236998657
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$32.01
-1.420673001
Current ratio is -23.70% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 38.95% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -142.07% below industry average
-0.200009699
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.697642192
Profit generated per employee:
$14.49
-69%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.058610175
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -106% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.058610175
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Specialty Retail
$4,874.23
EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:EXPE)
ETSY, INC. (XNAS:ETSY)
Li Auto Inc. (XNAS:LI)
POOL CORPORATION (XNAS:POOL)
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:CZR)
LKQ CORPORATION (XNAS:LKQ)
Trip.com Group Limited (XNAS:TCOM)
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLPX)
Current Analyst Ratings
$8.71
Strong buy�21%
Buy�8%
Hold�79%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/26/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.96B
8.41B
140%
-
-
2.94B
-
287.75M
11.64B
-
26.46M
287.75M
49%
291.00M
- 26458.00K
39%
291.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
187.23M
Differed Income Tax :
77.65M
Stock Based Compensation :
39.92M
Change in Working Capital :
12.32M
Accounts Receivables:
- 258373.00K
Other Working Capital:
186.02M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 17422.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
326.00K
Investments in PP&E:
59.07M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/26/2022
2022
Q1
405.43M
-
405.43M
9.03M
2.57B
185.63M
3.17B
4.40B
-
-
-
-
63.17M
4.52B
-
7.69B
1.34B
363.82M
-
-
494.20M
2.20B
3.55B
106.48M
3.70B
-
5.90B
1.41M
5.03B
7.3M
Value
3.23B
- 3247732.00K
1.79B
7.69B
-
3.92B
-
-
- 112288.00K
- 112288.00K
- 1197.00K
7.91M
- 322622.00K
- 103467.00K
-
- 419376.00K
-
- 472598.00K
405.43M
878.03M
59.07M
- 112387.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-36.02453993
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Specialty Retail
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
3851.324195
$199.97
$4,084.93
$4,332.70
$4,595.49