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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
TRS
Primary Facts
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Name:
-
Sector:
- 6220.00K
Industry:
26.81
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Amato
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.120247764
-0.071924179
Trimas Corporation (XNAS:TRS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
TRIMAS CORPORATION (XNAS:TRS)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$26.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P295
This week:
$25.51
This month :
$23.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
42.00M
Market Cap Classification:
1.13B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.61%
$20.98
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.11
14.84%
$23.51
$32.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.76
$25.00
$29.21
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sharpe Ratio:
TRS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.89%
-1.039165906
Sharpe ratio is -103.92% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.04%
Yearly returns:
1.70%
Comparison of returns:
-0.895279551
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -89.53% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
TRS is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.78
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -103.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.37%
Monthly Volatility:
5.30%
Yearly Volatility:
10.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
46.19%
-38.37%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.37% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.86%
Monthly VaR:
-10.87%
How Much Can the price of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$21.68
This translates to price declining to:
-19%
This translates to price declining to:
-75.28%
Severe Crash Probability
-21.73%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
31.40%
TRS is a 53.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
TRS is a 53.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
0.710
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.687
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.661
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.71
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -44.63% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.451
-0.385
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -38.52% lower than peers
-0.446333602
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -84.16% below industry mean WACC
-25.35%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.934
-2.460
-4.016
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -402% below the market average
-0.328
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -32.85% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.20%
Overall debt rating:
2.53%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.20%
-84.16%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -68.97% below the industry mean
-86.57%
EPS:
Fifty-Seven Million Three Hundred Sixty-Eight Thousand Two Hundred Fifty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-604.94%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -43.16% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -95% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -25.35% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.32
-0.370672716
37.14409118
-0.278216288
$1.77
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.43
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$20.82
-0.689738693
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -68.97% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -86.57% below industry average
-2154.89%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -2154.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 2.98%
$0.04
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.04
Previous Dividend: $0.12
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
2022-03-03--$0.04
--$0.00
2022-05-04--$0.04
2021-11-02--$0.04
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
62.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.2 years
Debt to assets ratio:
30.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
69.49%
-37.65%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.65% below industry average
-0.50
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-78.72%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
12.9403391
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.40%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.444
-30.15%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.444
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.197
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
0.007
5.356
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.200
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
219.57M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -127.58% lower than the industry
-145.28%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
219.57M
Effective Tax Rate:
4.83%
-0.056764637
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -4.91% lower than the industry
174.31%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -145.28% lower than the industry
-4.91%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -50.34% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 174.31% higher than the industry
-0.17905144
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$10.49
-0.596122435
Current ratio is -17.91% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -59.61% below industry average
-0.9358367
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -94% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.946354558
Profit generated per employee:
$3.32
-96%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.03471161
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.03471161
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
$56.73
H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:HEES)
MARTEN TRANSPORT, LTD. (XNAS:MRTN)
COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCO)
Raven Property Group Limited (MISX:RAVN)
HEARTLAND EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:HTLD)
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
FORTERRA, INC. (XNAS:FRTA)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.35
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
874.69M
655.12M
100%
-
-
123.53M
-
-
778.65M
-
14.37M
53.97M
64%
12.50M
- 24990.00K
32%
12.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.17M
Differed Income Tax :
13.76M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.00M
Change in Working Capital :
2.82M
Accounts Receivables:
- 29130.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.05M
Investments in PP&E:
5.67M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 63950.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
53.69M
-
53.69M
150.50M
158.36M
21.42M
383.97M
332.99M
345.01M
204.26M
-
7.92M
34.90M
925.08M
-
1.31B
94.87M
8.40M
-
-
51.56M
154.83M
440.43M
57.50M
520.39M
-
675.22M
430.00K
- 88130.00K
- 2010.0K
Value
123.53M
723.54M
633.83M
1.31B
-
448.83M
-
-
- 11870.00K
- 75820.00K
-
-
- 10030.00K
- 1740.00K
-
- 11770.00K
-
- 81920.00K
58.82M
140.74M
5.67M
- 11890.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
39.28350597
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
47.08875022
$28.23
$49.33
$51.69
$54.15