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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
TRNS
Primary Facts
Industrial Distribution
Name:
-
Sector:
852.00K
Industry:
71.43
CEO:
Mr. Lee Rudow
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.762089621
2.929364116
Transcat, Inc. (XNAS:TRNS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
TRANSCAT, INC. (XNAS:TRNS)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$71.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$73.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$71.94
Price Upper limit ($) :
$75.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P350
This week:
$66.8
This month :
$61.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.55M
Market Cap Classification:
557.01M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-27.64%
$50.72
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.87
25.56%
$59.99
$92.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$77.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.97
$65.39
$79.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Industrial Distribution
Sharpe Ratio:
TRNS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.08%
0.57187289
Sharpe ratio is 57.19% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Industrial Distribution
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.83%
Yearly returns:
39.75%
Comparison of returns:
0.807139356
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 80.71% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
TRNS is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.33
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 112.46% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.24%
Monthly Volatility:
7.24%
Yearly Volatility:
14.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
63.12%
-55.79%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.79% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-6.48%
Monthly VaR:
-14.50%
How Much Can the price of
Industrial Distribution
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$54.47
This translates to price declining to:
-24%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-29.00%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
75.33%
TRNS is a 104.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 75.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
TRNS is a 104.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Industrial Distribution
0.807
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.826
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.655
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -36.23% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.617
-0.512
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -51.18% lower than peers
-0.362282756
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -16.93% below industry mean WACC
-13.15%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.926
2.052
19.782
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Industrial Distribution
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1978% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.266
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -26.57% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.64%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.24%
Overall debt rating:
2.56%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.24%
-16.93%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 45.64% above the industry mean
-50.08%
EPS:
Eleven Million Three Hundred Nineteen Thousand Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 8.43% higher than the industry
-31.43%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 26.39% above the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.18%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -59% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Industrial Distribution
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -13.15% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
50.45
0.953489352
38.74182878
0.843743629
$1.00
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$27.16
0.456418721
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 45.64% above the industry mean
-
0.084317955
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -50.08% below industry average
-227.17%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -227.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
38.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
22.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.64%
-51.86%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.86% below industry average
-0.76
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-144.40%
2.18%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
9.451382479
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.38%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
-38.65%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.116
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
0.027
18.792
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.330
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Industrial Distribution
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
58.44M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -13.64% lower than the industry
7.33%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
58.44M
Effective Tax Rate:
3.84%
-0.311738261
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -12.37% lower than the industry
-42.61%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 7.33% higher than the industry
-12.37%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -76.07% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -42.61% lower than the industry
-0.050675396
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$3.62
0.27727137
Current ratio is -5.07% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 27.73% above industry average
-0.604820321
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -60% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.593321167
Profit generated per employee:
$3.14
-68%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -68% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-8.474545336
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -847% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-8.474545336
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Industrial Distribution
$89.63
YELLOW CORPORATION (XNAS:YELL)
CBAK ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:CBAT)
ATLAS TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS, INC. (XNAS:ATCX)
Hunter Group ASA (XOSL:HUNT)
PREFORMED LINE PRODUCTS COMPANY (XNAS:PLPC)
OFSSL
P.A.M. TRANSPORTATION SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:PTSI)
MESA AIR GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MESA)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.50
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/26/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
204.96M
146.52M
114%
-
23.65M
44.30M
20.65M
-
190.82M
-
953.00K
9.57M
46%
1.81M
- 953.00K
26%
1.81M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.69M
Differed Income Tax :
1.99M
Stock Based Compensation :
22.00K
Change in Working Capital :
437.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 4422.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1073.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2880.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
340.00K
Investments in PP&E:
2.06M
Net Acquisitions:
- 1203.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 931.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
6/30/2021
2022
Q1
254.00K
-
254.00K
33.70M
11.64M
3.14M
48.74M
30.64M
43.90M
6.90M
-
-
956.00K
82.40M
-
131.14M
11.20M
2.09M
-
-
7.31M
20.60M
27.34M
3.26M
33.83M
-
54.43M
3.73M
53.61M
- 269.0K
Value
44.30M
-
76.71M
131.14M
-
29.43M
-
-
-
- 2134.00K
- 608.00K
699.00K
- 3377.00K
-
3.24M
- 43.00K
- 184.00K
- 306.00K
254.00K
560.00K
2.06M
- 1203.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
43.63078727
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Industrial Distribution
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
72.56927007
$72.57
$76.50
$80.65
$85.02