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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
TGT
Primary Facts
Discount Stores
Name:
-
Sector:
- 2346000.00K
Industry:
164.6
CEO:
Mr. Brian Cornell
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.763342471
22.71355194
Target Corporation (XNYS:TGT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
TARGET CORPORATION (XNYS:TGT)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$165.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$170.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$165.34
Price Upper limit ($) :
$175.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P186
This week:
$157.11
This month :
$147.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
460.26M
Market Cap Classification:
75.30B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-24.93%
$131.12
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$183.30
12.65%
$145.90
$199.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$174.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$129.87
$154.54
$178.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Discount Stores
Sharpe Ratio:
TGT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.32%
0.082177785
Sharpe ratio is 8.22% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Discount Stores
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.33%
Yearly returns:
15.65%
Comparison of returns:
0.172235307
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 17.22% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
TGT is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.51
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 10.07% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.25%
Monthly Volatility:
5.02%
Yearly Volatility:
10.05%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
43.79%
-35.61%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.61% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.55%
Monthly VaR:
-10.17%
How Much Can the price of
Discount Stores
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$136.22
This translates to price declining to:
-17%
This translates to price declining to:
-70.46%
Severe Crash Probability
-20.34%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
22.99%
TGT is a 43.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.99% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
TGT is a 43.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Discount Stores
1.016
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.505
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.823
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.02
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 44.90% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.473
0.414
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 41.36% higher than peers
0.449038226
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 22.51% above industry mean WACC
81.23%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.164
0.026
3.527
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Discount Stores
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 353% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
0.271
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 27.12% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.49%
Overall debt rating:
1.97%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.49%
22.51%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $56.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -31.88% below the industry mean
18.36%
EPS:
Five Billion Five Hundred Ninety-Two Million One Hundred Seventy-Three Thousand Seven Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.39% lower than the industry
92.67%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 26.24% above the industry mean
-
-0.912030645
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.30%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -13% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Discount Stores
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 81.23% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.69
-0.194239559
279.7614335
-0.411641562
$4.57
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $81.44
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$232.43
-0.318849326
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -31.88% below the industry mean
-
-0.643876012
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 18.36% above the industry average
29.56%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 29.56% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 7.24%
$0.90
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.90
Previous Dividend: $3.60
Expected next dividend best case: $1.00
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.80
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.75
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.54%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/10/2022
2022-02-15--$0.90
2021-08-17--$0.90
2022-05-17--$0.90
2021-11-16--$0.90
2021-05-18--$0.68
-0.919227916
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
147.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
31.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
148.13%
-51.99%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.99% below industry average
-0.90
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-99.58%
0.30%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
17.84615895
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.32%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.563
14.30%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.563
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.317
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.006
Kurtosis
-0.007
26.182
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-1.796
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Discount Stores
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
30.27B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 7.26% higher than the industry
44.98%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
30.27B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.42%
-0.155622393
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.27% higher than the industry
125.06%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 44.98% higher than the industry
48.27%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -90.50% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 125.06% higher than the industry
-0.33869606
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$34.68
-2.159156103
Current ratio is -33.87% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -91.20% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -215.92% below industry average
-0.362534869
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.127650487
Profit generated per employee:
$23.09
-16%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -16% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-5.867645554
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -587% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-5.867645554
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Discount Stores
$375.05
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (XNYS:BUD)
DIAGEO PLC (XNYS:DEO)
THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:EL)
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO P.L.C. (XNYS:BTI)
UNILEVER PLC (XNYS:UL)
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY (XNYS:CL)
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM)
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (XNYS:DG)
Current Analyst Ratings
$12.06
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�75%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
4/30/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
106.98B
76.71B
114%
-
-
20.01B
-
1.75B
98.46B
-
425.00M
2.65B
40%
1.69B
- 371000.00K
28%
1.69B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.01B
Differed Income Tax :
679.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
115.00M
Change in Working Capital :
83.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 3280000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1560000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
- 1394000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/30/2022
2022
Q1
1.11B
-
1.11B
-
15.08B
1.76B
17.95B
31.24B
-
-
-
-
1.65B
32.89B
-
50.84B
14.05B
1.09B
-
-
5.58B
20.72B
15.96B
1.63B
19.34B
-
40.07B
39.00M
5.50B
- 352000.0K
Value
21.75B
5.59B
10.77B
50.84B
-
17.05B
-
-
- 948000.00K
- 948000.00K
- 48000.00K
-
- 181000.00K
- 424000.00K
- 1804000.00K
- 2457000.00K
-
- 4799000.00K
1.11B
5.91B
- 1394000.00K
- 952000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
366.9378853
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Discount Stores
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
287.9805911
$176.72
$307.64
$328.64
$351.08