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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
TAP
Primary Facts
Beverages�Brewers
Name:
-
Sector:
- 119300.00K
Industry:
51.7
CEO:
Mr. Gavin Hattersley
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.052917247
1.77636E-15
Molson Coors Beverage Company (XNYS:TAP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY (XNYS:TAP)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$51.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$53.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P323
This week:
$49.25
This month :
$46.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
216.73M
Market Cap Classification:
11.24B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-11.18%
$40.76
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.86
10.83%
$45.54
$63.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$55.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.35
$48.34
$56.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Beverages�Brewers
Sharpe Ratio:
TAP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.78%
0.083716192
Sharpe ratio is 8.37% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Beverages�Brewers
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.14%
Yearly returns:
6.82%
Comparison of returns:
-0.052186491
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.22% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
TAP is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.98
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -62.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.32%
Monthly Volatility:
5.18%
Yearly Volatility:
10.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
45.17%
-55.41%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.41% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.73%
Monthly VaR:
-10.58%
How Much Can the price of
Beverages�Brewers
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$42.20
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-73.28%
Severe Crash Probability
-21.15%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
27.91%
TAP is a 49.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 27.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
TAP is a 49.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Beverages�Brewers
0.872
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.663
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.676
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -5.46% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.621
-0.045
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -4.46% lower than peers
-0.054634146
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -13.54% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.956
0.013
-1.464
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Beverages�Brewers
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -146% below the market average
-0.036
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -3.65% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.71%
Overall debt rating:
1.35%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.71%
-13.54%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -46.07% below the industry mean
-110.53%
EPS:
Nine Hundred Eighty-Eight Million Five Hundred Ninety-Eight Thousand One Hundred Ten Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
FALSE
1043.93%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -70.22% below the industry mean
-
1
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.29%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 98% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Beverages�Brewers
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.35
-0.951436334
1558.629348
-0.96682983
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $25.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$61.08
-0.460700369
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -46.07% below the industry mean
-
0
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -110.53% below industry average
-78.46%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -78.46% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 7.68%
$0.38
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.53
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -5.72%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-04--$0.38
2021-08-27--$0.34
2022-06-02--$0.38
2021-12-02--$0.34
2020-03-06--$0.57
-1.637080889
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
51.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
25.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.01%
-40.75%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.75% below industry average
-1.24
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
19.00%
2.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
15.98731067
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.36%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.521
11.05%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.521
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.272
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.038
Kurtosis
0.051
3.444
Skewness of returns:
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
-0.226
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Beverages�Brewers
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
6.89B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 15014.05% higher than the industry
21049.24%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
6.89B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.79%
-0.099120751
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 49.79% higher than the industry
155.54%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 21049.24% higher than the industry
49.79%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -123.95% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 155.54% higher than the industry
-0.292562084
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$30.60
1.868087117
Current ratio is -29.26% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 100.00% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 186.81% above industry average
0.030643358
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 3% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.983181779
Profit generated per employee:
$10.05
193%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 193% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.55358386
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.55358386
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Beverages�Brewers
$150.28
TAP-A
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (XNYS:KOF)
BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:BJ)
BUNGE LIMITED (XNYS:BG)
COTY INC. (XNYS:COTY)
CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY (XNYS:CPB)
US FOODS HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:USFD)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.93
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�17%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.24B
6.35B
192%
-
1.34B
2.69B
-
-
9.03B
2.00M
125.10M
757.50M
71%
222.60M
- 215200.00K
43%
222.60M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
151.50M
Differed Income Tax :
173.70M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
8.50M
Accounts Receivables:
- 438800.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 14200.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 119300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
358.70M
-
358.70M
761.20M
935.80M
814.90M
2.87B
-
6.16B
13.22B
-
-
5.47B
24.85B
-
27.72B
-
681.90M
-
-
2.87B
3.56B
6.63B
987.60M
10.40B
-
13.95B
2.10M
7.47B
- 949600.0K
Value
2.69B
7.01B
13.53B
27.48B
-
7.31B
-
-
- 226200.00K
- 226200.00K
- 155200.00K
-
- 14100.00K
- 82400.00K
324.20M
72.50M
- 5700.00K
- 278700.00K
358.70M
637.40M
- 119300.00K
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
8.08578E-14
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Beverages�Brewers
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
119.6676818
$55.00
$126.68
$134.10
$141.96