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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
SWI
Primary Facts
Software�Infrastructure
Name:
-
Sector:
35.96M
Industry:
8.76
CEO:
Mr. Kevin Thompson
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.03063305
-1.053329634
Solarwinds Corp (XNYS:SWI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
SolarWinds Corp (XNYS:SWI)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$8.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.31
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P481
This week:
$8.15
This month :
$7.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
160.91M
Market Cap Classification:
1.37B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-39.72%
$6.02
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.35
16.8%
$7.17
$11.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.91
$7.86
$9.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Software�Infrastructure
Sharpe Ratio:
SWI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.63%
-3.860696179
Sharpe ratio is -386.07% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Software�Infrastructure
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
-0.15%
Monthly returns:
-0.74%
Yearly returns:
-35.37%
Comparison of returns:
-3.458838882
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -345.88% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
SWI is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.19
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -305.20% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.34%
Monthly Volatility:
7.47%
Yearly Volatility:
14.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
65.10%
-35.37%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.37% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-7.01%
Monthly VaR:
-15.67%
How Much Can the price of
Software�Infrastructure
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$6.18
This translates to price declining to:
-29%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-31.33%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
89.46%
SWI is a 121.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 89.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
SWI is a 121.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Software�Infrastructure
0.934
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.75
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.864
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -16.03% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.626
-0.188
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -18.77% lower than peers
-0.160327214
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -11.64% below industry mean WACC
-89.67%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.222
-13.414
-28.588
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Software�Infrastructure
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -2859% below the market average
-0.113
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -11.34% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.26%
Overall debt rating:
2.58%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.26%
-11.64%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -84.09% below the industry mean
-183.69%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -74.18% lower than the industry
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -96.27% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 645.62% higher than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.26%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 26% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Software�Infrastructure
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -89.67% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
0
-20.22301673
-1.433169794
$0.98
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$5.01
-0.840922641
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -84.09% below the industry mean
-
-0.741771293
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -183.69% below industry average
-100.91%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -100.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
$3.00
Previous Dividend: $3.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $3.00
Previous Dividend: $3.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $3.00
-
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/08/2021
Previous dividend record date: 08/09/2021
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/07/2021
--$0.00
--$0.00
2021-08-06--$3.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
53.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
25.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
85.13%
-41.61%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.61% below industry average
-1.01
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-102.55%
0.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
12.99165717
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.71%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.445
-7.30%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.445
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.198
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.039
Kurtosis
-0.076
32.989
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-2.813
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Software�Infrastructure
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
588.00M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -48.93% lower than the industry
-100.57%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
588.00M
Effective Tax Rate:
-31.22%
0.351143853
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -72.88% lower than the industry
-102.01%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -100.57% lower than the industry
-72.88%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -101.34% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -102.01% lower than the industry
-0.086497972
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$12.05
-0.745950813
Current ratio is -8.65% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -74.60% below industry average
-0.075654513
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.261822308
Profit generated per employee:
$1.14
-205%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -205% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.179634226
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.179634226
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-19.33%
6.456166685
Competitors/Peer firms of
Software�Infrastructure
$9.16
PURE STORAGE, INC. (XNYS:PSTG)
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:SAIC)
ALTERYX, INC. (XNYS:AYX)
Q2 HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:QTWO)
OneConnect Financial Technology Co Ltd (XNYS:OCFT)
Daqo New Energy Corp. (XNYS:DQ)
C3.AI, INC. (XNYS:AI)
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc (XNYS:DV)
Current Analyst Ratings
-$0.31
Strong buy�13%
Buy�29%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
806.83M
218.83M
291%
112.15M
152.45M
416.51M
264.06M
58.79M
806.28M
-
64.44M
194.38M
89%
- 27221.00K
- 64858.00K
-33%
- 27221.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 4659.00K
Differed Income Tax :
33.93M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 6392.00K
Change in Working Capital :
15.27M
Accounts Receivables:
- 934.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 138.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.88M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.05M
Investments in PP&E:
40.26M
Net Acquisitions:
- 1180.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 6500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
751.22M
-
751.22M
99.57M
-
22.56M
873.35M
99.35M
3.30B
311.87M
-
141.51M
36.20M
3.89B
-
4.76B
7.19M
34.84M
6.48M
329.02M
39.65M
410.69M
1.94B
88.79M
2.07B
-
2.48B
160.00K
- 285011.00K
- 15589.0K
Value
587.45M
2.58B
2.28B
4.76B
-
1.97B
-
-
- 3120.00K
- 10800.00K
- 4975.00K
-
- 6419.00K
-
1.77M
- 9629.00K
- 727.00K
19.10M
751.22M
732.12M
40.26M
- 4300.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
16.33056604
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Software�Infrastructure
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
7.181085909
$7.18
$7.63
$8.11
$8.62