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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
SWCH
Primary Facts
Information Technology Services
Name:
-
Sector:
- 94463.00K
Industry:
33.92
CEO:
Mr. Rob Roy
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.110868636
-0.990431626
Switch, Inc. (XNYS:SWCH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
SWITCH, INC. (XNYS:SWCH)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$34.04
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$34.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P246
This week:
$32.37
This month :
$30.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
244.90M
Market Cap Classification:
8.31B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-13.16%
$26.97
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.73
19.74%
$30.11
$41.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.73
$31.93
$36.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Information Technology Services
Sharpe Ratio:
SWCH, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.81%
2.330872658
Sharpe ratio is 233.09% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Information Technology Services
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.74%
Yearly returns:
35.47%
Comparison of returns:
1.456860273
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 145.69% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
SWCH is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.23
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 164.83% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.30%
Monthly Volatility:
5.15%
Yearly Volatility:
10.29%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
44.86%
-95.17%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.17% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.58%
Monthly VaR:
-10.24%
How Much Can the price of
Information Technology Services
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$28.35
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-70.94%
Severe Crash Probability
-20.48%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
23.82%
SWCH is a 44.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 23.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
SWCH is a 44.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Information Technology Services
0.635
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.567
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.561
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -47.46% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.125
-0.497
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -49.69% lower than peers
-0.474634128
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -48.01% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.793
8.303
17.802
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Information Technology Services
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1780% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.344
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -34.38% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.88%
Overall debt rating:
2.28%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.88%
-48.01%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $248.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 263.49% above the industry mean
-300.71%
EPS:
Six Million Sixteen Thousand Seven Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-1003.96%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 106.92% above the industry mean
-
43.24991102
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.06%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 575% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Information Technology Services
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.25
-0.531306326
1.898715621
16.86470792
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $969.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$2.56
2.634937066
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 263.49% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -300.71% below industry average
-100.05%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -100.05% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 119.00%
$0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.05
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 7.41%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 24/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
2022-03-10--$0.05
2021-08-18--$0.05
2022-05-23--$0.05
2021-11-18--$0.05
2021-05-24--$0.05
-2.029321526
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
525.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.9 years
Debt to assets ratio:
59.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
531.40%
-5.40%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -5.40% below industry average
-0.88
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.5x
1107.81%
0.06%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
14.32948186
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.24%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
-19.42%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.231
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
0.038
14.254
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.326
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Information Technology Services
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
263.35M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -115.11% lower than the industry
-236.02%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
263.35M
Effective Tax Rate:
101.78%
-0.132776921
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 156.36% higher than the industry
-96.56%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -236.02% lower than the industry
156.36%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -88.49% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -96.56% lower than the industry
-0.774514778
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$7.35
-2.282231389
Current ratio is -77.45% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 4324.99% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -228.22% below industry average
0.78585888
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 79% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
5.745982745
Profit generated per employee:
$1.02
-7%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -7% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
16.10729021
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 1611% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
16.10729021
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Information Technology Services
$26.54
CACI INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:CACI)
ANAPLAN, INC. (XNYS:PLAN)
CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:CCCS)
AllianzIM US LC B10 Jul (ARCX:AZAL)
WORKIVA INC. (XNYS:WK)
WEX INC. (XNYS:WEX)
IRONSOURCE LTD (XNYS:IS)
LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:LPLA)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.04
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
625.79M
362.44M
169%
-
-
169.25M
-
-
531.69M
-
52.08M
187.67M
160%
4.24M
- 40565.00K
12%
4.24M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
23.93M
Differed Income Tax :
49.78M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.24M
Change in Working Capital :
6.68M
Accounts Receivables:
- 13140.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 8848.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.22M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 14982.00K
Investments in PP&E:
56.51M
Net Acquisitions:
- 150433.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
27.49M
-
27.49M
24.77M
-
17.97M
70.24M
2.32B
106.35M
124.35M
-
306.75M
74.32M
2.93B
-
3.00B
21.81M
6.71M
-
37.87M
68.14M
134.53M
1.80B
413.43M
2.24B
-
2.37B
245.00K
- 18188.00K
- 568.0K
Value
169.25M
357.29M
338.78M
2.71B
-
1.81B
-
-
- 164.00K
- 150597.00K
- 1031.00K
-
-
- 7811.00K
82.10M
73.25M
-
- 20832.00K
29.38M
50.22M
56.51M
- 150975.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-66.41800544
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Information Technology Services
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
22.45470907
$35.55
$23.41
$24.41
$25.45