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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
STZ
Primary Facts
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
Name:
-
Sector:
602.10M
Industry:
244.85
CEO:
Mr. William Newlands
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
Constellation Brands, Inc. (XNYS:STZ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$246.23
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$253.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$245.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$261.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P452
This week:
$234.7
This month :
$222.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
182.54M
Market Cap Classification:
46.30B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.24%
$199.45
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$270.17
17.21%
$219.53
$291.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$258.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$197.77
$231.25
$263.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
Sharpe Ratio:
STZ, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.71%
0
Sharpe ratio is 0.00% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.32%
Yearly returns:
15.48%
Comparison of returns:
0
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.00% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
STZ is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.65
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 19.10% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.05%
Monthly Volatility:
4.58%
Yearly Volatility:
9.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
39.96%
-61.36%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.36% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.15%
Monthly VaR:
-9.27%
How Much Can the price of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$206.52
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-64.23%
Severe Crash Probability
-18.54%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
12.11%
STZ is a 30.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 12.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
STZ is a 30.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
1.009
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.677
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.728
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 0.00% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.63
0.833
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 83.27% higher than peers
0
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.029
0.000
3.451
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 345% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
0.000
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.43%
Overall debt rating:
2.71%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.43%
0.00%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $32.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 2.59% above the industry mean
0.00%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
FALSE
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -1.48% below the industry mean
-
0
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.91
-
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.74
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$51.14
0.025893178
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 2.59% above the industry mean
-
0
Net income growth rate (3Y):
FALSE
0.00%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 0.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 11.67%
$0.80
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.80
Previous Dividend: $3.08
Expected next dividend best case: $0.81
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.79
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.76
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.66%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/06/2022
2022-02-08--$0.76
2021-08-09--$0.76
2022-05-04--$0.80
2021-11-04--$0.76
2021-05-03--$0.76
15.85390813
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
81.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
37.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
80.86%
-30.88%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -30.88% below industry average
-0.15
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.6x
0.00%
0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
21.53721085
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.28%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
0.00%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.404
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
0.027
15.322
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.136
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
4.84B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -2307.59% lower than the industry
-5496.06%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
4.84B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.27%
-0.754756245
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -2416.21% lower than the industry
-2439.98%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -5496.06% lower than the industry
-2416.21%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -14.98% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -2439.98% lower than the industry
0.069571968
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$54.32
-1.14450745
Current ratio is 6.96% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 0.00% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -114.45% below industry average
0
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0
Profit generated per employee:
$13.24
0%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
$208.48
STZ-B
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC. (XNAS:KDP)
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND COMPANY (XNYS:ADM)
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (XNYS:DG)
Current Analyst Ratings
-$0.21
Strong buy�21%
Buy�33%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
5/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.33B
4.49B
208%
-
-
1.77B
-
-
6.26B
-
358.20M
354.00M
104%
448.30M
- 1327100.00K
75%
448.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 908100.00K
Differed Income Tax :
76.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 98700.00K
Change in Working Capital :
16.00M
Accounts Receivables:
62.20M
Other Working Capital:
224.10M
Other Non-Cash Items:
130.50M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.57B
Investments in PP&E:
716.00M
Net Acquisitions:
- 113900.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 3500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
5/31/2021
2022
Q1
503.80M
-
503.80M
922.80M
1.38B
508.90M
3.31B
5.39B
7.81B
2.73B
3.73B
2.59B
623.00M
22.88B
-
26.19B
821.10M
529.40M
-
-
712.30M
2.06B
9.91B
-
11.53B
-
13.59B
2.20M
14.06B
- 236600.0K
Value
1.77B
- 1567600.00K
12.26B
25.86B
-
10.44B
-
-
800.00K
- 116600.00K
- 7400.00K
-
- 400800.00K
- 146700.00K
- 1600.00K
- 556500.00K
300.00K
43.20M
503.80M
460.60M
716.00M
- 113900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Beverages�Wineries & Distilleries
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
160.369474
$262.76
$171.24
$182.85
$195.24