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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
SPTN
Primary Facts
Food Distribution
Name:
-
Sector:
161.16M
Industry:
29.62
CEO:
Mr. Dennis Eidson
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.979943549
-0.324060998
Spartannash Company (XNAS:SPTN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
SPARTANNASH COMPANY (XNAS:SPTN)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$29.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.01
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P14
This week:
$27.74
This month :
$25.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
35.75M
Market Cap Classification:
1.10B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-24.38%
$21.2
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.27
26.26%
$24.97
$38.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.89
$27.17
$32.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Food Distribution
Sharpe Ratio:
SPTN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.55%
0.929368923
Sharpe ratio is 92.94% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Food Distribution
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.82%
Yearly returns:
39.56%
Comparison of returns:
0.532985606
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 53.30% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
SPTN is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.66
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 115.44% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.18%
Monthly Volatility:
7.10%
Yearly Volatility:
14.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
61.93%
-79.27%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.27% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-6.36%
Monthly VaR:
-14.22%
How Much Can the price of
Food Distribution
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$22.73
This translates to price declining to:
-23%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-28.44%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
71.97%
SPTN is a 100.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 71.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
SPTN is a 100.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Food Distribution
0.697
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.075
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.70
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -35.91% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.419
-0.272
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -27.25% lower than peers
-0.359108709
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -20.29% below industry mean WACC
5.39%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
1.081
20.140
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Food Distribution
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 2014% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.252
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -25.24% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.76%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.79%
Overall debt rating:
1.42%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.79%
-20.29%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -69.89% below the industry mean
-56.63%
EPS:
Seventy-Three Million Six Hundred Ninety-Seven Thousand Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
FALSE
250.73%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -84.74% below the industry mean
-
1.75283661
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -66% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Food Distribution
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 5.39% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.34
-0.489344578
69.26138929
-0.572344703
$5.41
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.11
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$252.80
-0.698914351
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -69.89% below the industry mean
-
0
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -56.63% below industry average
163.96%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 163.96% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
-
$0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.82
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.02%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-16--$0.21
2021-09-14--$0.20
2022-06-14--$0.21
2021-12-09--$0.20
2021-06-14--$0.20
-0.935279747
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
92.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
32.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
87.57%
-52.61%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.61% below industry average
3.71
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.4x
198.40%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
3.253113712
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.37%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.123
-70.75%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.123
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
-0.047
16.630
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.611
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Food Distribution
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.44B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 45.08% higher than the industry
117.37%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.44B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
0.114580851
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 77.88% higher than the industry
-35.69%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 117.37% higher than the industry
77.88%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 371.07% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -35.69% lower than the industry
-0.034894706
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$19.48
-1.029216248
Current ratio is -3.49% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 175.28% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -102.92% below industry average
-0.542085506
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.655759603
Profit generated per employee:
$5.09
-51%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -51% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.173180586
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.173180586
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Food Distribution
$37.43
Vasta Platform Ltd (XNAS:VSTA)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCP)
ABCD
PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORPORATION (XNAS:PRDO)
CRESUD INC. (XNAS:CRESY)
Village Farms International, Inc. (XNAS:VFF)
AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:APEI)
WHOLE EARTH BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:FREE)
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.04
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
4/23/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.04B
7.60B
63%
-
289.05M
1.32B
-
252.00K
8.92B
-
13.45M
71.64M
8%
23.44M
- 13189.00K
4%
23.44M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
73.75M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
- 51274.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
138.68M
Investments in PP&E:
161.16M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/23/2022
2022
Q1
16.33M
-
16.33M
395.47M
556.32M
63.77M
1.03B
844.94M
181.04M
109.40M
-
-
96.96M
1.23B
-
2.26B
478.96M
53.18M
-
-
129.48M
661.63M
696.43M
36.48M
807.30M
-
1.47B
494.57M
302.17M
- 1432.0K
Value
1.32B
-
795.30M
2.26B
-
749.61M
-
-
- 47978.00K
- 47978.00K
-
-
-
-
- 122414.00K
- 122414.00K
-
- 9237.00K
10.67M
19.90M
161.16M
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-0.066540663
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Food Distribution
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
31.16505
$31.17
$32.63
$34.15
$35.75