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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
SJM
Primary Facts
Packaged Foods
Name:
-
Sector:
69.80M
Industry:
140
CEO:
Mr. Mark Smucker
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.186842142
-1.104892383
The J. M. Smucker Company (XNYS:SJM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY (XNYS:SJM)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$140.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$141.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$140.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$142.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P25
This week:
$135.16
This month :
$129.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
106.56M
Market Cap Classification:
14.92B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.49%
$118.37
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$152.05
10.38%
$127.95
$162.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$146.46
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$117.57
$133.54
$148.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaged Foods
Sharpe Ratio:
SJM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.31%
1.162053115
Sharpe ratio is 116.21% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaged Foods
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.29%
Yearly returns:
13.75%
Comparison of returns:
0.633775687
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 63.38% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
SJM is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.94
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 24.31% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.71%
Monthly Volatility:
3.82%
Yearly Volatility:
7.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
33.34%
-27.90%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -27.90% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.46%
Monthly VaR:
-7.73%
How Much Can the price of
Packaged Foods
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$121.79
This translates to price declining to:
-13%
This translates to price declining to:
-53.53%
Severe Crash Probability
-15.45%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-6.57%
SJM is a 9.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -6.57% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
SJM is a 9.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaged Foods
0.218
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.292
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.435
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.22
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -62.83% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.159
-0.660
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -66.02% lower than peers
-0.628273608
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -28.27% below industry mean WACC
-52.95%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.615
6.260
5.801
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaged Foods
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 580% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.352
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -35.20% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.37%
Overall debt rating:
2.66%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.37%
-28.27%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $117.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -2.96% below the industry mean
-72.02%
EPS:
Six Hundred Twenty-One Million Seven Hundred Fourteen Thousand Seven Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -44.08% lower than the industry
-69.42%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -61.65% below the industry mean
-
2.363450981
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.10%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 64% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaged Foods
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -52.95% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.68
-0.335362043
225.6592638
-0.379595601
$6.24
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $150.04
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$62.21
-0.029617544
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -2.96% below the industry mean
-
-0.440762519
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -72.02% below industry average
-414.52%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -414.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 15.39%
$0.99
Previous Dividend: $0.99
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.99
Previous Dividend: $3.96
Expected next dividend best case: $1.03
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.95
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.93
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.23%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
2022-02-10--$0.99
2021-08-12--$0.99
2022-05-12--$0.99
2021-11-10--$0.99
2021-05-13--$0.90
-4.392898735
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.4 years
Debt to assets ratio:
28.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.32%
-58.56%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.56% below industry average
-0.97
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-104.57%
10.10%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
8.982363132
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.23%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.325
-24.34%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.325
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.105
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.019
Kurtosis
0.019
7.539
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.095
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaged Foods
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
6.61B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 97.42% higher than the industry
219.95%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
6.61B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.84%
-0.587077439
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -12.75% lower than the industry
-30.01%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 219.95% higher than the industry
-12.75%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -96.87% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -30.01% lower than the industry
-0.742352821
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$33.99
-1.557600739
Current ratio is -74.24% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 236.35% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -155.76% below industry average
0.256945015
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 26% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.641460382
Profit generated per employee:
$11.64
81%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 81% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-3.799262284
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -380% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-3.799262284
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaged Foods
$172.02
ALBERTSONS COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:ACI)
CONAGRA BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:CAG)
CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY (XNYS:CPB)
Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (XNYS:KOF)
MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY (XNYS:TAP)
TAP-A
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LW)
Current Analyst Ratings
$5.84
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�42%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
4/30/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.63B
20.50M
791%
-
193.70M
1.01B
466.30M
669.20M
5.45B
-
160.90M
235.50M
81%
212.10M
236.30M
131%
212.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
153.90M
Differed Income Tax :
113.90M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
5.30M
Accounts Receivables:
- 139200.00K
Other Working Capital:
28.50M
Other Non-Cash Items:
47.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.90M
Investments in PP&E:
137.80M
Net Acquisitions:
- 68000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
7/31/2021
2022
Q1
168.80M
-
168.80M
566.00M
1.11B
112.60M
1.95B
2.12B
6.02B
5.99B
-
-
130.70M
14.26B
-
16.21B
1.04B
1.16B
-
-
563.20M
2.76B
3.62B
308.00M
5.28B
-
8.04B
27.10M
2.89B
- 281600.0K
Value
1.68B
5.53B
8.17B
16.21B
-
4.78B
-
-
- 12000.00K
- 80000.00K
- 407000.00K
-
- 6800.00K
- 97200.00K
287.70M
- 223300.00K
-
- 165500.00K
168.80M
334.30M
137.80M
- 68000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-6.203959696
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaged Foods
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
162.3069946
$162.31
$164.68
$167.09
$169.54