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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
SFM
Primary Facts
Grocery Stores
Name:
-
Sector:
125.80M
Industry:
28.73
CEO:
Mr. Jack Sinclair
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.287338948
-0.103496046
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$28.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P36
This week:
$27.15
This month :
$25.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
107.46M
Market Cap Classification:
3.14B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-24.24%
$21.66
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.67
15.71%
$24.79
$36.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.40
$26.62
$31.56
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Grocery Stores
Sharpe Ratio:
SFM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.81%
-0.194913568
Sharpe ratio is -19.49% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Grocery Stores
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.46%
Yearly returns:
22.16%
Comparison of returns:
-0.040164328
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -4.02% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
SFM is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.12
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 34.53% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.72%
Monthly Volatility:
6.09%
Yearly Volatility:
12.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
53.08%
-46.88%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.88% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.50%
Monthly VaR:
-12.30%
How Much Can the price of
Grocery Stores
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$22.79
This translates to price declining to:
-21%
This translates to price declining to:
-85.20%
Severe Crash Probability
-24.59%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
48.71%
SFM is a 73.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
SFM is a 73.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Grocery Stores
0.404
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.4
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.472
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.40
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -26.57% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.199
-0.559
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -55.94% lower than peers
-0.26568467
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -28.24% below industry mean WACC
46.66%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.668
0.005
10.341
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Grocery Stores
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1034% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.145
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -14.47% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.73%
Overall debt rating:
0.58%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.73%
-28.24%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -13.31% below the industry mean
61.58%
EPS:
Two Hundred Forty Million Seventy-Four Thousand Three Hundred Seventy Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 106.87% higher than the industry
22.76%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -4.40% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Grocery Stores
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 46.66% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.86
-0.36307827
44.23243341
-0.350476612
$2.66
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$57.38
-0.133112778
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -13.31% below the industry mean
-
1.068658342
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 61.58% above the industry average
-72.32%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -72.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
118.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
39.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
135.00%
-34.44%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.44% below industry average
4.56
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.8x
-2594.48%
0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
7.540429157
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.37%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.277
-10.98%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.277
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.077
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.004
Kurtosis
-0.007
14.431
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.570
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Grocery Stores
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.23B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 122.27% higher than the industry
203.43%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.23B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.79%
0.269964972
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 80.26% higher than the industry
26.76%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 203.43% higher than the industry
80.26%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 456.12% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 26.76% higher than the industry
-0.031799374
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$12.71
-1.147178512
Current ratio is -3.18% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -114.72% below industry average
-0.53006795
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.79230315
Profit generated per employee:
$5.37
-44%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -44% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.331006146
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -33% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.331006146
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Grocery Stores
$33.01
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
KRISPY KREME, INC. (XNAS:DNUT)
FRESHPET, INC. (XNAS:FRPT)
THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HAIN)
HOSTESS BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:TWNK)
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.19
Strong buy�25%
Buy�29%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/3/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.17B
3.93B
145%
-
-
1.77B
-
122.85M
5.82B
-
11.09M
237.16M
37%
79.33M
- 11732.00K
21%
79.33M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
88.31M
Differed Income Tax :
60.76M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.29M
Change in Working Capital :
4.46M
Accounts Receivables:
- 3272.00K
Other Working Capital:
27.65M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
484.00K
Investments in PP&E:
153.03M
Net Acquisitions:
- 27227.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/3/2022
2022
Q1
324.30M
-
324.30M
13.68M
272.18M
30.56M
640.71M
1.79B
368.88M
184.96M
-
-
16.10M
2.36B
-
3.00B
165.70M
154.62M
15.28M
-
203.37M
523.69M
1.37B
35.74M
1.46B
-
1.99B
110.00K
301.42M
- 1263.0K
Value
1.89B
711.71M
1.01B
3.00B
-
1.52B
-
-
-
- 27227.00K
- 176.00K
-
- 45715.00K
-
- 818.00K
- 46709.00K
-
79.09M
326.10M
247.00M
153.03M
- 27227.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-0.188926932
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Grocery Stores
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
29.65755
$29.66
$30.46
$31.29
$32.14