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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
RUSHA
Primary Facts
Auto & Truck Dealerships
Name:
-
Sector:
- 11104.00K
Industry:
46.69
CEO:
Mr. W. M. Rush
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.482839318
-0.477852766
Rush Enterprises, Inc. (XNAS:RUSHA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHA)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$46.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$50.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P468
This week:
$44.4
This month :
$41.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
54.99M
Market Cap Classification:
2.61B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.79%
$36.46
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.39
8.64%
$40.99
$57.30
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.08
$43.64
$50.79
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sharpe Ratio:
RUSHA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.78%
0.13964531
Sharpe ratio is 13.96% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.43%
Yearly returns:
20.55%
Comparison of returns:
-0.331606315
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.16% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
RUSHA is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.43
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 38.78% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.43%
Monthly Volatility:
5.43%
Yearly Volatility:
10.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
47.32%
-89.51%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.51% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.90%
Monthly VaR:
-10.96%
How Much Can the price of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$38.10
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-75.91%
Severe Crash Probability
-21.91%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
32.51%
RUSHA is a 54.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 32.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
RUSHA is a 54.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
1.066
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.739
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.712
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.07
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -27.40% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.861
-0.284
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -28.42% lower than peers
-0.273984737
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -10.99% below industry mean WACC
-43.24%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.007
-0.424
6.433
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 643% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.209
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -20.86% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.45%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.22%
Overall debt rating:
0.17%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.22%
-10.99%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -38.64% below the industry mean
-102.78%
EPS:
Two Hundred Thirteen Million One Hundred Ninety-Eight Thousand Seven Hundred Eighty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
17.49%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -93.68% below the industry mean
-
8.555400967
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 30.29%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 12% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -43.24% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.91
-0.91068696
441.0085682
-0.894129041
$4.18
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$99.25
-0.386364905
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -38.64% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -102.78% below industry average
-39.45%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -39.45% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 3.84%
$0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.76
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.80%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/12/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
2022-02-25--$0.19
2021-08-09--$0.19
2022-05-11--$0.19
2021-11-05--$0.19
2021-05-07--$0.18
-0.853284772
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
65.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.8 years
Debt to assets ratio:
30.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.98%
-76.23%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -76.23% below industry average
47.09
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.2x
-95.71%
30.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
14.28055964
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.33%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
-3.82%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.23
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.006
Kurtosis
-0.008
5.014
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.581
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.19B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 190.03% higher than the industry
262.18%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.19B
Effective Tax Rate:
4.78%
-0.141394615
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -105.39% lower than the industry
-4146.84%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 262.18% higher than the industry
-105.39%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 4708.78% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -4146.84% lower than the industry
-0.237668409
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$8.71
-1.091492051
Current ratio is -23.77% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 855.54% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -109.15% below industry average
-0.130336589
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -13% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.120483503
Profit generated per employee:
$9.47
1%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 1% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-3.836694216
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -384% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-3.836694216
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
$91.84
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHB)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEA)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEB)
VISTEON CORPORATION (XNAS:VC)
FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:RRR)
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.98
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.46B
4.26B
87%
-
-
780.83M
-
39.63M
5.09B
212.00K
2.69M
140.57M
38%
88.86M
17.08M
28%
88.86M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
92.45M
Differed Income Tax :
45.81M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.02M
Change in Working Capital :
13.79M
Accounts Receivables:
- 118489.00K
Other Working Capital:
49.66M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
34.59M
Net Acquisitions:
- 45689.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
209.53M
-
209.53M
186.76M
1.11B
16.23M
1.52B
1.33B
370.33M
-
-
-
96.37M
1.80B
-
3.32B
171.12M
741.11M
-
71.85M
144.63M
1.13B
478.73M
27.59M
647.81M
-
1.78B
568.00K
1.11B
1.2M
Value
820.46M
429.90M
1.55B
3.32B
-
1.22B
-
-
29.40M
- 16290.00K
- 207997.00K
-
- 14421.00K
- 11083.00K
276.59M
43.09M
-
61.38M
209.53M
148.15M
34.59M
- 45689.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-3.630918124
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Auto & Truck Dealerships
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
69.64958071
$50.28
$74.64
$79.98
$85.71