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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
RGLD
Primary Facts
Gold
Name:
-
Sector:
- 135115.00K
Industry:
90.45
CEO:
Mr. Tony Jensen
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.97763588
0
Royal Gold, Inc. (XNAS:RGLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
ROYAL GOLD, INC. (XNAS:RGLD)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$90.78
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$92.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$90.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$94.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P20
This week:
$85.76
This month :
$79.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
65.64M
Market Cap Classification:
6.00B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-21.43%
$69.48
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$102.33
23.88%
$78.57
$112.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$97.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.68
$83.89
$99.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Gold
Sharpe Ratio:
RGLD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.20%
-3.69829611
Sharpe ratio is -369.83% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Gold
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
-0.02%
Yearly returns:
-1.08%
Comparison of returns:
-1.344304159
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -134.43% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
RGLD is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.59
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -123.24% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.52%
Monthly Volatility:
5.64%
Yearly Volatility:
11.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
49.16%
-19.27%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -19.27% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.18%
Monthly VaR:
-11.59%
How Much Can the price of
Gold
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$71.86
This translates to price declining to:
-21%
This translates to price declining to:
-80.30%
Severe Crash Probability
-23.18%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
40.16%
RGLD is a 63.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
RGLD is a 63.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Gold
0.655
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.39
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.72
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 38.03% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.633
-0.411
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -41.07% lower than peers
0.38032027
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 19.24% above industry mean WACC
73.36%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.018
1.677
-5.551
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Gold
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -555% below the market average
0.193
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 19.32% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.61%
Overall debt rating:
1.27%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.61%
19.24%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.29
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 0.23% above the industry mean
46.10%
EPS:
Two Hundred Eighty-Five Million Five Hundred Twenty-Nine Thousand Six Hundred Fifty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
FALSE
553.07%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -13.53% below the industry mean
-
-0.881508334
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 97% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Gold
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 73.36% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.58
-0.700822886
313.7037749
-0.711670668
$1.22
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $45.63
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$10.26
0.00231994
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 0.23% above the industry mean
-
0
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 46.10% above the industry average
207.52%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 207.52% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 6.27%
$0.35
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.35
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.31
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.38%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 22/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/05/2022
2022-03-31--$0.35
2021-09-30--$0.30
2022-06-30--$0.35
2022-01-06--$0.35
2021-07-01--$0.30
-0.959806527
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.4 years
Debt to assets ratio:
1.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.75%
-85.64%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.64% below industry average
2.67
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
0.00%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
6.776364615
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.43%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.251
2.51%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.251
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.021
Kurtosis
-0.031
21.156
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.581
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Gold
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
420.64M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 60.79% higher than the industry
73.12%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
420.64M
Effective Tax Rate:
0.48%
-0.768602443
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 53.45% higher than the industry
25.77%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 73.12% higher than the industry
53.45%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 267.36% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 25.77% higher than the industry
0.181206465
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$1.45
-1.298085399
Current ratio is 18.12% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -88.15% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -129.81% below industry average
0.928627909
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 93% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.965183577
Profit generated per employee:
$8.16
99%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 99% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
1.007690629
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 101% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
1.007690629
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Gold
$112.75
Pan American Silver Corp. (XNAS:PAAS)
UFP INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPI)
BALCHEM CORPORATION (XNAS:BCPC)
SSR Mining Inc. (XNAS:SSRM)
AMYRIS, INC. (XNAS:AMRS)
WD-40 COMPANY (XNAS:WDFC)
METHANEX CORPORATION (XNAS:MEOH)
INNOSPEC INC. (XNAS:IOSP)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.35
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
673.33M
252.69M
250%
-
31.31M
31.31M
-
-
335.43M
2.47M
3.07M
195.70M
318%
22.89M
- 349.00K
201%
22.89M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
70.18M
Differed Income Tax :
50.61M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 396.00K
Change in Working Capital :
1.50M
Accounts Receivables:
7.03M
Other Working Capital:
- 927.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 20.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
959.00K
Investments in PP&E:
129.89M
Net Acquisitions:
- 265000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
9/30/2021
2022
Q1
160.21M
-
160.21M
57.04M
12.22M
2.61M
232.08M
2.48B
-
-
-
-
96.96M
2.57B
-
2.81B
5.47M
95.40M
23.93M
-
- 40610.00K
60.26M
95.40M
7.81M
190.90M
-
251.16M
656.00K
336.73M
-
Value
31.31M
2.20B
2.54B
2.79B
-
190.81M
-
-
- 7733.00K
- 272733.00K
-
- 909.00K
- 909.00K
- 19682.00K
98.64M
77.14M
-
- 65708.00K
160.21M
225.92M
129.89M
- 265000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
0
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Gold
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
94.90215
$94.90
$99.08
$103.44
$108.00