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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
REPX
Primary Facts
Oil & Gas E&P
Name:
-
Sector:
21.61M
Industry:
24.11
CEO:
Mr. Michael Rugen
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.157684315
0.016219432
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (XNYS:REPX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC. (XNYS:REPX)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$24.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.66
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P360
This week:
$19.34
This month :
$13.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
19.87M
Market Cap Classification:
490.09M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-41.26%
$2.79
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.84
165.81%
$12.38
$46.19
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.26
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.03
$17.96
$32.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Oil & Gas E&P
Sharpe Ratio:
REPX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
4.60%
0.256355053
Sharpe ratio is 25.64% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Oil & Gas E&P
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.58%
Monthly returns:
2.90%
Yearly returns:
139.44%
Comparison of returns:
1.270266724
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 127.03% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
REPX is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.16
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 153.31% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
9.91%
Monthly Volatility:
22.16%
Yearly Volatility:
44.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
193.16%
-71.65%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.65% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-19.77%
Monthly VaR:
-44.21%
How Much Can the price of
Oil & Gas E&P
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$6.87
This translates to price declining to:
-72%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-88.41%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
434.59%
REPX is a 524.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 434.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
REPX is a 524.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Oil & Gas E&P
0.971
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.01
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.513
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -51.74% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.628
-0.420
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -42.01% lower than peers
-0.517357969
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.726
1.914
82.519
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Oil & Gas E&P
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 8252% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.421
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -42.11% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -38.43% below the industry mean
-40.99%
EPS:
Six Million Two Hundred Fifty-Two Thousand Four Hundred Eighty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-1.21%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -98.80% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -90% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Oil & Gas E&P
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.99
-0.833947553
13.47622416
0.7890768
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$7.95
-0.384274996
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -38.43% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -40.99% below industry average
-146.62%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -146.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: -46.53%
$0.31
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.21
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/11/2022
2022-01-25--$0.31
2021-07-22--$0.28
2022-04-20--$0.31
2021-10-20--$0.31
2021-04-15--$0.28
-0.93523327
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-3.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 24.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-2.10%
Net debt to assets ratio:
66.57%
-24.97%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -24.97% below industry average
-0.25
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
2306.11%
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
4.111262024
Statistical significance of correlation:
-1.10%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.155
-60.65%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.155
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
-0.014
118.508
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
7.461
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Oil & Gas E&P
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
110.90M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 498.73% higher than the industry
-5645.77%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
110.90M
Effective Tax Rate:
-7.31%
-0.092939151
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -242.89% lower than the industry
-164.28%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -5645.77% lower than the industry
-242.89%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -24.69% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -164.28% lower than the industry
-0.755398713
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.00
-1.159394019
Current ratio is -75.54% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -115.94% below industry average
-0.634157218
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.895571829
Profit generated per employee:
$0.69
-158%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -158% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-5.342479466
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -534% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-5.342479466
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Oil & Gas E&P
$22.47
URANIUM ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:UEC)
PINEDALE ENERGY LIMITED (XTSX:MCF.H)
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:LEU)
Denison Mines Corp. (XNYS:DNN)
Ur-Energy Inc. (XNYS:URG)
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (XNYS:GTE)
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS, INC. (XNYS:NOG)
RING ENERGY INC. (XNYS:REI)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.32
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
158.01M
47.11M
208%
-
15.38M
19.97M
-
5.17M
67.65M
-
2.30M
27.27M
12%
- 2806.00K
- 102827.00K
-32%
- 2806.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
6.87M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.76M
Change in Working Capital :
951.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3294.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2625.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 32772.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
11.45M
Investments in PP&E:
21.73M
Net Acquisitions:
- 117.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
12/31/2021
2022
Q1
8.32M
-
8.32M
18.00M
-
4.99M
31.30M
3.17M
-
-
-
-
361.69M
364.87M
-
396.17M
7.74M
-
-
-
56.34M
64.08M
-
76.87M
94.26M
-
158.33M
20.00K
- 33919.00K
-
Value
20.55M
271.74M
237.84M
396.17M
-
-
-
-
- 29011.00K
- 29128.00K
-
-
- 19.00K
- 6056.00K
4.73M
- 1349.00K
-
- 8750.00K
8.32M
17.07M
21.73M
- 117.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
0.128335314
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Oil & Gas E&P
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
17.45088873
$25.81
$18.59
$19.80
$21.10