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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
PZZA
Primary Facts
Restaurants
Name:
-
Sector:
15.16M
Industry:
79.27
CEO:
Mr. Robert Lynch
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.55615241
-3.510642495
Papa John'S International, Inc. (XNAS:PZZA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:PZZA)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$79.76
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$82.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$79.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$85.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P128
This week:
$74.42
This month :
$68.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
35.35M
Market Cap Classification:
2.82B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-21.71%
$57.59
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$91.39
38.76%
$67.15
$101.75
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$85.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.79
$72.74
$88.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Restaurants
Sharpe Ratio:
PZZA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.65%
0.483132027
Sharpe ratio is 48.31% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Restaurants
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.41%
Yearly returns:
19.83%
Comparison of returns:
0.238055245
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 23.81% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
PZZA is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.65
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 7.25% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.02%
Monthly Volatility:
6.75%
Yearly Volatility:
13.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
58.82%
-8.72%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -8.72% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-6.11%
Monthly VaR:
-13.67%
How Much Can the price of
Restaurants
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$60.85
This translates to price declining to:
-23%
This translates to price declining to:
-94.73%
Severe Crash Probability
-27.35%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
65.35%
PZZA is a 93.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
PZZA is a 93.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Restaurants
1.103
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.539
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.811
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -18.54% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-0.67
-0.074
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -7.42% lower than peers
-0.185389721
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -12.25% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.147
1.540
5.807
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Restaurants
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 581% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.138
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -13.84% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-6.51%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.65%
Overall debt rating:
2.10%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.65%
-12.25%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $28.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -59.07% below the industry mean
-28.41%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 887.89% above the industry mean
-
-5.943764897
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -47% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Restaurants
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.52
0.374414431
-13.01342201
-7.091403165
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $48.20
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$59.36
-0.590660017
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -59.07% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -28.41% below industry average
2396.30%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 2396.30% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 12.45%
$0.35
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.40
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
2022-02-04--$0.35
2021-08-13--$0.35
2022-05-13--$0.35
2021-11-08--$0.35
2021-05-10--$0.23
-3.44249114
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-291.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
73.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-316.19%
-49.24%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -49.24% below industry average
-0.45
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.0x
-9.99%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
10.49011407
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.43%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.372
-28.03%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.372
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.138
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.035
Kurtosis
-0.062
43.970
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
2.404
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Restaurants
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
484.48M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -48.67% lower than the industry
-26.95%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
484.48M
Effective Tax Rate:
4.12%
-0.058798554
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -19.46% lower than the industry
-14218.15%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -26.95% lower than the industry
-19.46%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -44.66% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -14218.15% lower than the industry
-0.08529703
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$20.04
-0.752328733
Current ratio is -8.53% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -594.38% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -75.23% below industry average
0.336352299
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 34% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.46508759
Profit generated per employee:
$5.40
-49%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -49% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.552049127
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.552049127
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Restaurants
$113.89
MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED (XNAS:MLCO)
SILGAN HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:SLGN)
WINGSTOP INC. (XNAS:WING)
NIKOLA CORPORATION (XNAS:NKLA)
Diversey Holdings, Ltd. (XNAS:DSEY)
LESLIE'S, INC. (XNAS:LESL)
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DRVN)
THE WENDY'S COMPANY (XNAS:WEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
-$0.55
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/27/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.10B
1.61B
93%
-
193.56M
193.56M
-
105.09M
1.91B
-
19.49M
49.28M
37%
20.68M
- 17578.00K
24%
20.68M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.43M
Differed Income Tax :
11.94M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 1817.00K
Change in Working Capital :
4.18M
Accounts Receivables:
- 24524.00K
Other Working Capital:
7.36M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2119.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
24.19M
Investments in PP&E:
25.39M
Net Acquisitions:
- 10233.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1250.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/27/2022
2022
Q1
80.67M
-
80.67M
100.87M
38.99M
65.73M
286.27M
414.18M
71.59M
-
-
6.54M
107.05M
599.36M
-
885.63M
35.43M
26.13M
27.97M
19.65M
197.42M
278.63M
708.52M
89.21M
810.11M
-
1.09B
491.00K
181.12M
- 9316.0K
Value
298.64M
-
- 224079.00K
864.67M
-
734.65M
-
-
3.17M
- 8315.00K
-
-
- 32709.00K
- 12608.00K
38.53M
- 6787.00K
- 233.00K
10.06M
80.67M
70.61M
25.39M
- 10233.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-78.68044525
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Restaurants
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
85.5657
$85.57
$91.91
$98.72
$106.03