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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
PPL
Primary Facts
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Name:
-
Sector:
75.00M
Industry:
28.94
CEO:
Mr. William Spence
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.950089058
-0.026428302
Ppl Corporation (XNYS:PPL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
PPL CORPORATION (XNYS:PPL)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$29.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.04
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P498
This week:
$27.72
This month :
$26.21
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
736.18M
Market Cap Classification:
21.22B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-13.71%
$23.49
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.03
14.25%
$25.85
$34.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.28
$27.24
$31.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Sharpe Ratio:
PPL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.17%
-1.422994522
Sharpe ratio is -142.30% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
-0.01%
Yearly returns:
-0.32%
Comparison of returns:
-1.040230138
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -104.02% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
PPL is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.88
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -121.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.05%
Monthly Volatility:
4.59%
Yearly Volatility:
9.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
39.98%
-48.81%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.81% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.21%
Monthly VaR:
-9.42%
How Much Can the price of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$24.11
This translates to price declining to:
-17%
This translates to price declining to:
-65.27%
Severe Crash Probability
-18.84%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
13.93%
PPL is a 32.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 13.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
PPL is a 32.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
0.763
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.724
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.726
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 52.78% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.687
0.314
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 31.42% higher than peers
0.527796774
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 41.29% above industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.026
-7.818
-5.534
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -553% below the market average
0.275
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 27.48% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.19%
Overall debt rating:
5.68%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.19%
41.29%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 20.97% above the industry mean
2503.43%
EPS:
Six Hundred Eighteen Million One Hundred Fifty-Eight Thousand Five Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
1188.68%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -17.26% below the industry mean
-
-0.278225735
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -52% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.1
0.0511238
23.25822705
0.244290888
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.51
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$8.24
0.209660263
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 20.97% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 2503.43% above the industry average
5834.41%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 5834.41% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 48.34%
$0.23
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $1.26
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.38
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 21/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-09--$0.20
2021-09-09--$0.42
2022-06-17--$0.23
2021-12-09--$0.42
2021-06-09--$0.42
2.870181289
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
23.10%
Net debt to assets ratio:
76.94%
-50.23%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.23% below industry average
0.40
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-219.29%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
23.17447071
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.35%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.663
11.07%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.663
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.439
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.049
Kurtosis
0.059
11.046
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.159
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.76B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -10.32% lower than the industry
107.26%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.76B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.74%
3.24505141
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -19.74% lower than the industry
-49.78%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 107.26% higher than the industry
-19.74%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 40.03% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -49.78% lower than the industry
-0.213012059
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$14.49
-1.754054884
Current ratio is -21.30% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -27.82% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -175.41% below industry average
-0.606097874
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.518065791
Profit generated per employee:
$4.27
-72%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.406028092
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.406028092
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
$27.14
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
ENTERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:ETR)
DTE
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
Avangrid, Inc. (XNYS:AGR)
CMS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:CMS)
BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS L.P. (OTCM:BINFF)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.84
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.07B
3.30B
182%
-
-
-
-
1.30B
4.60B
12.00M
872.00M
1.12B
214%
518.00M
- 857000.00K
35%
518.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
273.00M
Differed Income Tax :
278.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
39.00M
Change in Working Capital :
11.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 80000.00K
Other Working Capital:
4.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 94000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 19000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
502.00M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
4.25B
-
4.25B
948.00M
280.00M
236.00M
5.71B
25.65B
716.00M
340.00M
-
-
1.69B
28.39B
-
34.11B
686.00M
1.46B
92.00M
-
888.00M
3.03B
10.67B
3.21B
17.21B
-
20.24B
8.00M
2.70B
- 152000.0K
Value
1.30B
-
13.87B
34.11B
-
12.13B
-
-
- 427000.00K
- 427000.00K
-
-
-
- 306000.00K
909.00M
603.00M
-
678.00M
4.25B
3.57B
502.00M
- 427000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
9.476167237
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
22.21441221
$22.21
$23.35
$24.55
$25.81