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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
POOL
Primary Facts
Leisure
Name:
-
Sector:
- 217268.00K
Industry:
339.9
CEO:
Mr. Peter Arvan
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.758755234
1.553889932
Pool Corporation (XNAS:POOL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
POOL CORPORATION (XNAS:POOL)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$341.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$349.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$341.66
Price Upper limit ($) :
$360.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P458
This week:
$323.12
This month :
$302.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
39.59M
Market Cap Classification:
13.46B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-16.79%
$264.85
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$381.55
10.28%
$298.25
$417.70
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$362.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$262.10
$317.74
$369.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Leisure
Sharpe Ratio:
POOL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.78%
1.146282877
Sharpe ratio is 114.63% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Leisure
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.51%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
0.483793826
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 48.38% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
POOL is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.97
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 67.17% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.45%
Monthly Volatility:
5.49%
Yearly Volatility:
10.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
47.84%
-64.05%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.05% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.94%
Monthly VaR:
-11.04%
How Much Can the price of
Leisure
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$277.53
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-76.49%
Severe Crash Probability
-22.08%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
33.51%
POOL is a 55.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
POOL is a 55.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Leisure
0.880
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.663
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.71
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -38.04% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.414
-0.333
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -33.30% lower than peers
-0.380418172
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -37.25% below industry mean WACC
46.66%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.004
3.183
9.796
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Leisure
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 980% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.287
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -28.74% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.64%
Overall debt rating:
0.50%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.64%
-37.25%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $155.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -20.71% below the industry mean
-9.60%
EPS:
Seven Hundred Twenty-Two Million Fifty-One Thousand Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
12.90%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 315.25% above the industry mean
-
4.79524976
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 26.63%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 21% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Leisure
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 46.66% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.59
-0.589927178
773.9589332
-0.560829412
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $1,321.10
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$142.65
-0.207120053
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -20.71% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -9.60% below industry average
7.10%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 7.10% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 4.39%
$1.00
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.00
Previous Dividend: $3.40
Expected next dividend best case: $1.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.87
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.69
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.84%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
2022-03-09--$0.80
2021-08-11--$0.80
2022-05-13--$1.00
2021-11-09--$0.80
2021-05-14--$0.80
-4.801025526
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
147.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 25.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
44.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
142.69%
-32.97%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -32.97% below industry average
0.15
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.8x
170.18%
26.63%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
19.44289544
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.31%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
5.14%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.356
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
-0.029
8.108
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-1.094
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Leisure
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.76B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 196.99% higher than the industry
281.57%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.76B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.50%
0.052553561
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 197.00% higher than the industry
152.74%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 281.57% higher than the industry
197.00%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 15.31% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 152.74% higher than the industry
0.134778267
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$42.32
-0.940148527
Current ratio is 13.48% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 479.52% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -94.01% below industry average
0.396473755
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 40% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.210785952
Profit generated per employee:
$24.56
82%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 82% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.373426002
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 37% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.373426002
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Leisure
$11,748.52
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:CZR)
ULTA BEAUTY, INC. (XNAS:ULTA)
LKQ CORPORATION (XNAS:LKQ)
Trip.com Group Limited (XNAS:TCOM)
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLPX)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONA)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONA)
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (XNAS:TSCO)
Current Analyst Ratings
$18.04
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.65B
3.88B
125%
-
-
826.17M
-
-
4.71B
-
11.26M
32.58M
67%
197.27M
- 11255.00K
64%
197.27M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
179.26M
Differed Income Tax :
9.86M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
3.66M
Accounts Receivables:
- 406601.00K
Other Working Capital:
287.45M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.72M
Investments in PP&E:
- 208109.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 9159.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
35.37M
-
35.37M
679.93M
1.64B
42.31M
2.40B
440.79M
688.35M
310.85M
1.18M
-
42.21M
1.48B
-
3.88B
685.95M
92.95M
-
-
179.55M
958.45M
1.68B
32.94M
1.75B
-
2.71B
40.00K
611.58M
3.9M
Value
826.17M
-
1.17B
3.88B
-
1.77B
-
-
-
- 9159.00K
- 608057.00K
-
- 62420.00K
- 32132.00K
931.33M
228.72M
- 405.00K
11.04M
35.37M
24.32M
- 208109.00K
- 9159.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
50.98031939
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Leisure
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
9336.801957
$361.80
$9,888.82
$10,473.47
$11,092.69