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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
PM
Primary Facts
Tobacco
Name:
-
Sector:
889.00M
Industry:
94.53
CEO:
Mr. Andre Calantzopoulos
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.868187709
0
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$94.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$96.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$94.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$98.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P322
This week:
$90.97
This month :
$86.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.55B
Market Cap Classification:
145.87B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.45%
$78.61
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$103.47
10.03%
$85.59
$111.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$99.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.02
$89.68
$101.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Tobacco
Sharpe Ratio:
PM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.42%
2.12167202
Sharpe ratio is 212.17% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Tobacco
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.17%
Yearly returns:
7.93%
Comparison of returns:
0.979750456
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 97.98% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
PM is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.56
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -42.60% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.85%
Monthly Volatility:
4.13%
Yearly Volatility:
8.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
36.05%
-30.26%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.26% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.76%
Monthly VaR:
-8.42%
How Much Can the price of
Tobacco
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$80.81
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-58.32%
Severe Crash Probability
-16.84%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
1.80%
PM is a 18.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 1.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
PM is a 18.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Tobacco
0.641
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.671
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.625
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 1.66% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-0.737
-0.105
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -10.51% lower than peers
0.016570205
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -11.26% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.883
-1.112
0.247
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Tobacco
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 25% compared to market & is healthy
0.010
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 0.96% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-8.67%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.60%
Overall debt rating:
1.26%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.60%
-11.26%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $73.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -1.01% below the industry mean
-31.71%
EPS:
Eight Billion Nine Hundred Fifty-Nine Million Four Hundred Seventy-Three Thousand Nine Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
FALSE
0.00%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -52.85% below the industry mean
-
-0.399698121
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.02%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -66% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Tobacco
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.23
-0.390453561
153.9268839
-0.385877258
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $92.88
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$20.36
-0.010117137
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -1.01% below the industry mean
-
0
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -31.71% below industry average
-162.20%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -162.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 20.60%
$1.25
Previous Dividend: $1.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.25
Previous Dividend: $5.00
Expected next dividend best case: $1.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/06/2022
2022-03-23--$1.25
2021-09-28--$1.25
2022-06-30--$1.25
2021-12-22--$1.25
2021-06-24--$1.20
-0.818201138
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-244.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
59.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-237.86%
-48.60%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -48.60% below industry average
0.44
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.4x
41.91%
2.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
21.05044633
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.28%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
8.53%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.393
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.053
Kurtosis
0.057
9.377
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.930
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Tobacco
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
21.20B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 42.35% higher than the industry
92.76%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
21.20B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-0.250995088
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 54.34% higher than the industry
-190.24%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 92.76% higher than the industry
54.34%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 44.18% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -190.24% lower than the industry
-0.97996141
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$15.49
-2.680795797
Current ratio is -98.00% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -39.97% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -268.08% below industry average
-0.771050169
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -77% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.6566134
Profit generated per employee:
$8.74
-57%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -57% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.95066182
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.95066182
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Tobacco
$154.65
UNILEVER PLC (XNYS:UL)
THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:EL)
DIAGEO PLC (XNYS:DEO)
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (XNYS:BUD)
Altria Group, Inc. (XNYS:MO)
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO P.L.C. (XNYS:BTI)
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY (XNYS:CL)
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (XNYS:DG)
Current Analyst Ratings
$5.78
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
31.57B
10.36B
269%
-
1.86B
10.15B
5.95B
- 1719000.00K
18.80B
-
469.00M
1.01B
172%
2.59B
- 706000.00K
154%
2.59B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.47B
Differed Income Tax :
253.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 1000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
- 1699000.00K
Other Working Capital:
14.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 928000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
100.00M
Investments in PP&E:
1.12B
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 20000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
4.62B
-
4.62B
4.42B
8.68B
1.00B
18.72B
6.00B
6.63B
2.79B
4.31B
694.00M
2.58B
23.01B
-
41.73B
3.20B
5.34B
6.52B
-
11.88B
20.42B
24.02B
4.75B
29.52B
-
49.94B
-
33.47B
- 9760000.0K
Value
8.43B
-
- 10098000.00K
39.84B
-
29.36B
-
-
- 176000.00K
- 196000.00K
- 496000.00K
-
- 209000.00K
- 1952000.00K
1.96B
- 701000.00K
- 95000.00K
126.00M
4.63B
4.50B
1.12B
- 229000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
0
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Tobacco
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
130.6417221
$99.09
$136.27
$142.14
$148.26