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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
OGE
Primary Facts
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Name:
-
Sector:
- 161200.00K
Industry:
40.66
CEO:
Mr. Sean Trauschke
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.952263333
-0.024200287
Oge Energy Corp. (XNYS:OGE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
OGE ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:OGE)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$40.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.55
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P373
This week:
$39.04
This month :
$37.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
200.20M
Market Cap Classification:
8.09B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.7%
$33.42
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.75
14.2%
$36.57
$48.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.14
$38.41
$43.64
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Sharpe Ratio:
OGE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.17%
-0.929377147
Sharpe ratio is -92.94% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.05%
Yearly returns:
2.51%
Comparison of returns:
-0.68017476
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -68.02% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
OGE is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.87
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -96.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.95%
Monthly Volatility:
4.35%
Yearly Volatility:
8.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
37.92%
-33.83%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.83% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.98%
Monthly VaR:
-8.91%
How Much Can the price of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$34.30
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-61.72%
Severe Crash Probability
-17.82%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
7.73%
OGE is a 25.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 7.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
OGE is a 25.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
0.650
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.644
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.821
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 30.00% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.345
0.013
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 1.33% higher than peers
0.300018348
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 5.20% above industry mean WACC
14.95%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.161
-4.991
-3.240
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -324% below the market average
0.156
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 15.62% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.04%
Overall debt rating:
2.40%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.04%
5.20%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $23.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 7.34% above the industry mean
-5117.50%
EPS:
Nine Hundred Sixty-Two Million Nine Hundred Seventy-Six Thousand Four Hundred Thirty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-411.28%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 2.82% above the industry mean
-
2.248550262
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 14.95% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.82
-0.681534109
133.1810382
-0.694701284
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $44.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$13.05
0.073370526
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 7.34% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -5117.50% below industry average
-2573.10%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -2573.10% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 8.54%
$0.41
Previous Dividend: $0.41
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.41
Previous Dividend: $1.63
Expected next dividend best case: $0.42
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.40
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.40
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.57%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 24/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 23/02/2022
2022-01-07--$0.41
2021-07-09--$0.40
2022-04-08--$0.41
2021-10-08--$0.41
2021-04-09--$0.40
-1.570026701
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
121.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
39.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
105.50%
-45.35%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.35% below industry average
3.23
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-15.44%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
21.36635318
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.32%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
5.96%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.4
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
0.082
8.623
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.074
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.11B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 217.20% higher than the industry
90.40%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.11B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.24%
-0.197924191
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 218.44% higher than the industry
148.80%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 90.40% higher than the industry
218.44%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 323.44% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 148.80% higher than the industry
-0.795452286
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$22.46
-0.985801078
Current ratio is -79.55% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 224.86% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -98.58% below industry average
-0.564755672
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.318119646
Profit generated per employee:
$8.66
8%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 8% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
1.239437629
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 124% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
1.239437629
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
$73.49
PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:PNW)
NEXTERA ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:NEP)
EBR-B
HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC. (OTCM:HNPIY)
BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE CORPORATION (XNYS:BEPC)
CMS-PB
IDACORP, INC. (XNYS:IDA)
UGI CORPORATION (XNYS:UGI)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.81
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.61B
1.51B
167%
-
-
-
-
528.40M
2.03B
-
159.00M
424.70M
273%
185.70M
571.10M
181%
185.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
279.50M
Differed Income Tax :
107.40M
Stock Based Compensation :
47.50M
Change in Working Capital :
2.30M
Accounts Receivables:
- 37500.00K
Other Working Capital:
24.50M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 340300.00K
Investments in PP&E:
58.90M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
51.40M
-
51.40M
410.20M
183.80M
12.00M
657.40M
10.09B
-
-
1.07B
-
1.28B
12.44B
-
13.09B
300.90M
731.50M
39.90M
81.50M
228.90M
1.34B
4.50B
1.59B
7.49B
-
8.83B
1.13B
3.15B
- 17000.0K
Value
528.40M
-
4.26B
13.09B
-
5.23B
-
-
- 220400.00K
- 220400.00K
-
-
-
- 82300.00K
243.80M
161.50M
-
161.50M
-
-
58.90M
- 220100.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-37.43413349
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
61.94874347
$42.64
$64.65
$67.47
$70.42