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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
NOC
Primary Facts
Aerospace & Defense
Name:
-
Sector:
- 732000.00K
Industry:
476.95
CEO:
Ms. Kathy Warden
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-2.117598726
6.046952548
Northrop Grumman Corporation (XNYS:NOC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:NOC)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$478.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$486.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$478.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$496.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P165
This week:
$458.1
This month :
$434.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
154.71M
Market Cap Classification:
74.22B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.15%
$392.66
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$523.93
13.%
$429.97
$564.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$502.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$389.54
$451.76
$510.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Aerospace & Defense
Sharpe Ratio:
NOC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.08%
1.629569085
Sharpe ratio is 162.96% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Aerospace & Defense
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.32%
Yearly returns:
15.51%
Comparison of returns:
0.485688659
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 48.57% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
NOC is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.83
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 25.16% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.96%
Monthly Volatility:
4.37%
Yearly Volatility:
8.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
38.12%
-66.66%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.66% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.95%
Monthly VaR:
-8.84%
How Much Can the price of
Aerospace & Defense
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$405.95
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-61.22%
Severe Crash Probability
-17.67%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
6.86%
NOC is a 24.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 6.86% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
NOC is a 24.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Aerospace & Defense
0.609
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.572
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.552
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -39.50% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.322
-0.366
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -36.62% lower than peers
-0.394971813
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -27.12% below industry mean WACC
162.49%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.780
19.754
5.214
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Aerospace & Defense
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 521% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.271
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -27.11% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.68%
Overall debt rating:
2.91%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.68%
-27.12%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $147.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -78.02% below the industry mean
-67.24%
EPS:
Five Billion Six Hundred Thirty-Nine Million Five Hundred Forty-Four Thousand Six Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -50.41% lower than the industry
542.10%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 99.21% above the industry mean
-
-174.5175598
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 168% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Aerospace & Defense
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 162.49% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.28
-0.717439778
1704.886458
-0.7202453
$10.41
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $188.22
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$228.21
-0.78019322
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -78.02% below the industry mean
-
-0.504135455
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -67.24% below industry average
4385.92%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 4385.92% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 4.35%
$1.73
Previous Dividend: $1.73
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.73
Previous Dividend: $6.44
Expected next dividend best case: $1.83
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.63
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/05/2022
2022-02-25--$1.57
2021-08-27--$1.57
2022-05-27--$1.73
2021-11-26--$1.57
2021-05-28--$1.57
-1.214103683
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
92.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
29.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
109.02%
-35.58%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -35.58% below industry average
0.99
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-113.17%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
15.63824258
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.27%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.513
-5.26%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.513
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.263
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.052
Kurtosis
0.059
7.567
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.302
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Aerospace & Defense
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
7.40B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -103.28% lower than the industry
-102.12%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
7.40B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.31%
-0.224137064
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 222.16% higher than the industry
447.81%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -102.12% lower than the industry
222.16%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 99.23% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 447.81% higher than the industry
-0.587573839
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$93.63
-0.920920495
Current ratio is -58.76% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -17451.76% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -92.09% below industry average
0.164421486
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 16% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
1.683828546
Profit generated per employee:
$57.19
919%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 919% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
2.582802606
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 258% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
2.582802606
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Aerospace & Defense
$1,129.22
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION (XNYS:GD)
EATON CORPORATION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:ETN)
WASTE MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:WM)
FEDEX CORPORATION (XNYS:FDX)
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC (XNYS:JCI)
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LIMITED (XNYS:CP)
THOMSON REUTERS CORPORATION (XNYS:TRI)
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORPORATION (XNYS:NSC)
Current Analyst Ratings
$36.28
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
35.31B
27.91B
84%
-
3.68B
3.68B
-
-
31.58B
-
534.00M
1.25B
101%
1.30B
3.34B
81%
1.30B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
955.00M
Differed Income Tax :
303.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 201000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
18.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 1254000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 732000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 309000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 488000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
2.17B
-
2.17B
7.83B
838.00M
713.00M
11.56B
9.72B
17.52B
533.00M
-
220.00M
2.35B
30.35B
-
41.90B
2.05B
7.00M
-
2.88B
3.92B
8.85B
14.49B
4.97B
19.77B
-
28.62B
156.00M
13.28B
- 146000.0K
Value
3.68B
-
13.29B
41.90B
-
14.49B
-
-
- 249000.00K
- 249000.00K
-
-
- 318000.00K
- 251000.00K
- 50000.00K
- 619000.00K
-
- 1356000.00K
2.17B
3.53B
- 488000.00K
- 244000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
138.4237326
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Aerospace & Defense
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
961.7880601
$498.96
$1,001.16
$1,042.15
$1,084.81