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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
NLST
Primary Facts
Semiconductors
Name:
-
Sector:
996.00K
Industry:
2.944
CEO:
Mr. Chun Hong
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.946615989
-0.211071743
Netlist, Inc. (OTCM:NLST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
NETLIST, INC. (OTCM:NLST)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$2.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P34
This week:
$2.4
This month :
$1.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
231.58M
Market Cap Classification:
657.70M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-52.19%
$.5
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.28
148.07%
$1.61
$5.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$0.41
$2.25
$3.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Semiconductors
Sharpe Ratio:
NLST, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.10%
1.283324992
Sharpe ratio is 128.33% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Semiconductors
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.67%
Monthly returns:
3.36%
Yearly returns:
161.06%
Comparison of returns:
4.041774182
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 404.18% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
NLST is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.05
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 210.18% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
9.37%
Monthly Volatility:
20.95%
Yearly Volatility:
41.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
182.60%
-62.57%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.57% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-18.57%
Monthly VaR:
-41.52%
How Much Can the price of
Semiconductors
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$1.01
This translates to price declining to:
-66%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-83.03%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
402.05%
NLST is a 486.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 402.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
NLST is a 486.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Semiconductors
1.317
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.627
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.322
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.32
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -6.62% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.301
-0.124
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -12.44% lower than peers
-0.06618604
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 9.93% above industry mean WACC
113.63%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.870
6.781
94.777
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Semiconductors
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 9478% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.050
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -4.99% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
12.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.96%
Overall debt rating:
3.13%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.96%
9.93%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -40.64% below the industry mean
-290.20%
EPS:
Two Million Three Hundred Ten Thousand Two Hundred Ninety Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -6.65% lower than the industry
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 62.30% above the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 68.93% higher than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.74%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -63% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Semiconductors
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 113.63% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
369.09
7.898689807
0.414767576
6.097951168
$0.05
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$0.61
-0.406411447
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -40.64% below the industry mean
-
-0.066465409
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -290.20% below industry average
40.84%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 40.84% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-60.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.1 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-34.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.97%
-94.22%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.22% below industry average
0.11
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
-109.18%
8.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
1.93779837
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.92%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.074
-88.23%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.074
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.019
Kurtosis
-0.103
98.005
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
6.666
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Semiconductors
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
50.76M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -91.05% lower than the industry
-71.75%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
50.76M
Effective Tax Rate:
22.92%
3.572939654
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -74.45% lower than the industry
-79.25%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -71.75% lower than the industry
-74.45%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 10.83% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -79.25% lower than the industry
-0.422139544
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.01
-1.967516475
Current ratio is -42.21% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -196.75% below industry average
0.900743401
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 90% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.634912008
Profit generated per employee:
$0.04
-85%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -85% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.701051498
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.701051498
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
23.92%
0.689299636
Competitors/Peer firms of
Semiconductors
$4.59
AKOUSTIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:AKTS)
ATERIAN, INC (XNAS:ATER)
DZS Inc. (XNAS:DZSI)
Mogo Inc. (XNAS:MOGO)
PRIORITY TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PRTH)
ITURAN LOCATION AND CONTROL LTD. (XNAS:ITRN)
CALAMP CORP. (XNAS:CAMP)
IBEX Limited (XNAS:IBEX)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.01
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/2/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
141.31M
92.58M
83%
8.57M
24.74M
32.79M
-
-
168.27M
-
281.00K
175.00K
3%
6.63M
211.00K
2%
6.63M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 5872.00K
Differed Income Tax :
81.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
682.00K
Accounts Receivables:
6.16M
Other Working Capital:
3.08M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
167.00K
Investments in PP&E:
1.22M
Net Acquisitions:
- 221.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/2/2022
2022
Q1
37.53M
-
37.53M
5.78M
19.50M
21.97M
84.78M
3.41M
-
-
-
-
287.00K
3.70M
-
88.47M
28.96M
5.11M
-
-
2.05M
36.13M
1.99M
187.00K
2.18M
-
38.31M
232.00K
- 195927.00K
-
Value
41.37M
245.86M
50.17M
88.47M
-
7.10M
-
-
-
- 221.00K
- 191.00K
1.77M
-
-
- 2721.00K
- 1145.00K
-
- 149.00K
58.33M
58.48M
1.22M
- 221.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-1.400678886
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Semiconductors
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
3.272539847
$3.27
$3.56
$3.88
$4.22