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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
NLOK
Primary Facts
Software�Infrastructure
Name:
-
Sector:
257.00M
Industry:
22.84
CEO:
Mr. Vincent Pilette
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.651556234
0.134306107
Nortonlifelock Inc. (XNAS:NLOK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
NortonLifeLock Inc. (XNAS:NLOK)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$22.93
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.35
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P76
This week:
$21.62
This month :
$20.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
571.37M
Market Cap Classification:
12.63B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-39.66%
$17.38
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.92
12.04%
$19.76
$28.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.17
$21.15
$25.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Software�Infrastructure
Sharpe Ratio:
NLOK, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.63%
-0.801281065
Sharpe ratio is -80.13% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Software�Infrastructure
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.09%
Yearly returns:
4.16%
Comparison of returns:
-0.710821604
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -71.08% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
NLOK is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.91
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -85.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.61%
Monthly Volatility:
5.84%
Yearly Volatility:
11.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
50.89%
-70.59%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.59% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.34%
Monthly VaR:
-11.95%
How Much Can the price of
Software�Infrastructure
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$18.06
This translates to price declining to:
-21%
This translates to price declining to:
-82.79%
Severe Crash Probability
-23.90%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
44.52%
NLOK is a 68.69% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 44.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
NLOK is a 68.69% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Software�Infrastructure
0.665
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.243
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.602
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -40.19% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-0.144
-0.300
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -30.04% lower than peers
-0.401929903
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -39.06% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.851
-1.980
-2.257
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Software�Infrastructure
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -226% below the market average
-0.284
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -28.43% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-1.67%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.19%
Overall debt rating:
2.52%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.19%
-39.06%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -57.50% below the industry mean
-94.16%
EPS:
Eight Hundred Seventeen Million Eight Hundred Ninety Thousand Two Hundred Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -67.95% lower than the industry
608.57%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -258.44% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 617.20% higher than the industry
-33.73378504
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.65%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 641% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Software�Infrastructure
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.87
-0.756766012
91.98210835
-0.751690841
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$4.89
-0.575021874
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -57.50% below the industry mean
-
-0.679517072
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.16% below industry average
-100.58%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -100.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 10.05%
$0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Expected next dividend best case: $3.11
Expected next dividend worst case: -$2.86
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 854.64%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/06/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/08/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-02-18--$0.13
2021-08-20--$0.13
2022-06-07--$0.13
2021-11-19--$0.13
2021-06-08--$0.13
130.0924358
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-546.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.2 years
Debt to assets ratio:
41.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-700.60%
-23.94%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -23.94% below industry average
-1.05
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.1x
-94.68%
9.65%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
8.618652838
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.43%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.313
-34.79%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.313
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.098
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.017
Kurtosis
0.026
79.563
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-4.926
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Software�Infrastructure
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.39B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -351.92% lower than the industry
-402.85%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.39B
Effective Tax Rate:
2.39%
-0.368942733
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -436.27% lower than the industry
-257.57%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -402.85% lower than the industry
-436.27%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -104.92% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -257.57% lower than the industry
-0.654563062
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$6.09
-1.5296491
Current ratio is -65.46% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -3373.38% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -152.96% below industry average
1.627843035
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 163% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
6.411617909
Profit generated per employee:
$2.29
1378%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 1378% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
3.810110958
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 381% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
3.810110958
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-18.60%
6.172041472
Competitors/Peer firms of
Software�Infrastructure
$28.56
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:JKHY)
Open Text Corporation (XNAS:OTEX)
GDS HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:GDS)
FIVE9, INC. (XNAS:FIVN)
BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:BSY)
CREE
F5, INC. (XNAS:FFIV)
Weibo Corporation (XNAS:WB)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.41
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/1/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.80B
408.00M
342%
253.00M
392.00M
1.01B
622.00M
85.00M
1.76B
-
126.00M
140.00M
188%
206.00M
37.00M
150%
206.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
181.00M
Differed Income Tax :
36.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.00M
Change in Working Capital :
20.00M
Accounts Receivables:
3.00M
Other Working Capital:
24.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 76000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
17.00M
Investments in PP&E:
258.00M
Net Acquisitions:
- 1000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
7/2/2021
2022
Q1
1.23B
15.00M
1.25B
188.00M
-
353.00M
1.79B
142.00M
2.86B
1.10B
185.00M
348.00M
145.00M
4.78B
-
6.57B
76.00M
462.00M
214.00M
1.18B
507.00M
2.22B
3.48B
1.16B
4.84B
-
7.06B
2.05B
- 2595000.00K
49.0M
Value
1.35B
-
- 497000.00K
6.57B
200.00M
3.94B
-
4.00M
- 4000.00K
- 1000.00K
- 372000.00K
-
-
- 84000.00K
500.00M
44.00M
- 4000.00K
297.00M
1.23B
933.00M
258.00M
- 1000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
40.1247841
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Software�Infrastructure
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
23.9793
$23.98
$25.05
$26.17
$27.34