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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
NFLX
Primary Facts
Entertainment
Name:
-
Sector:
801.68M
Industry:
226.11
CEO:
Mr. Reed Hastings
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
2.0894797
0.372324232
Netflix, Inc. (XNAS:NFLX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
NETFLIX, INC. (XNAS:NFLX)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$227.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$236.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$227.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$246.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P298
This week:
$211.39
This month :
$193.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
444.71M
Market Cap Classification:
97.12B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-35.12%
$160.26
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$263.33
16.85%
$188.89
$294.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$246.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$157.75
$205.67
$253.20
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Entertainment
Sharpe Ratio:
NFLX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.32%
-0.597231528
Sharpe ratio is -59.72% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Entertainment
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.06%
Yearly returns:
3.10%
Comparison of returns:
-0.542274938
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -54.23% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
NFLX is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.79
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -94.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.18%
Monthly Volatility:
7.10%
Yearly Volatility:
14.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
61.93%
-27.40%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -27.40% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-6.51%
Monthly VaR:
-14.56%
How Much Can the price of
Entertainment
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$168.21
This translates to price declining to:
-26%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-29.12%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
76.08%
NFLX is a 105.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
NFLX is a 105.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Entertainment
1.335
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.471
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.823
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.33
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -0.39% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.777
1.400
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 139.98% higher than peers
-0.003899181
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 12.85% above industry mean WACC
-0.78%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.164
0.656
-5.850
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Entertainment
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -585% below the market average
-0.003
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -0.29% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.65%
Overall debt rating:
4.46%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.65%
12.85%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 24.95% above the industry mean
234.29%
EPS:
Four Billion Eight Hundred Ninety-Five Million Eight Hundred Ninety-Nine Thousand Four Hundred Eighty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
13.35%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 220.93% above the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 20067.34% higher than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.59%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 398% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Entertainment
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -0.78% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.16
-0.217277517
297.8932853
-0.2409698
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$68.37
0.249455882
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 24.95% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 234.29% above the industry average
-253.05%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -253.05% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
48.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
18.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
82.85%
-54.96%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -54.96% below industry average
-0.68
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-101.46%
4.59%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
13.85701591
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.53%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
-7.98%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.219
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.062
Kurtosis
-0.115
25.937
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-2.097
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Entertainment
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
12.65B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 149.55% higher than the industry
209.32%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
12.65B
Effective Tax Rate:
2.38%
-0.132758857
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 155.13% higher than the industry
-44.74%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 209.32% higher than the industry
155.13%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -68.03% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -44.74% lower than the industry
-0.360752974
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$32.68
-1.160264816
Current ratio is -36.08% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -116.03% below industry average
1.784210776
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 178% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
3.976660481
Profit generated per employee:
$43.92
286%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 286% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-2025.466655
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -202547% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-2025.466655
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
24.28%
200.6734123
Competitors/Peer firms of
Entertainment
$499.10
COMCAST CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCSA)
T-MOBILE US, INC. (XNAS:TMUS)
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:CHTR)
NETEASE, INC. (XNAS:NTES)
Baidu, Inc. (XNAS:BIDU)
ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:ZM)
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. (XNAS:ATVI)
VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:VOD)
Current Analyst Ratings
$11.02
Strong buy�46%
Buy�58%
Hold�58%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
30.40B
17.75B
167%
2.41B
1.45B
4.04B
2.59B
-
24.20B
400.29M
821.28M
12.92B
257%
778.33M
- 420986.00K
76%
778.33M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.60B
Differed Income Tax :
3.24B
Stock Based Compensation :
- 68906.00K
Change in Working Capital :
119.21M
Accounts Receivables:
25.29M
Other Working Capital:
- 215444.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 151188.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3991166.00K
Investments in PP&E:
922.84M
Net Acquisitions:
- 121158.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 124521.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
6.01B
-
6.01B
824.65M
-
1.26B
8.10B
1.38B
-
31.19B
-
-
4.66B
37.23B
-
45.33B
617.20M
-
-
1.24B
5.88B
7.74B
14.53B
5.51B
20.05B
-
27.79B
4.16B
14.29B
- 74170.0K
Value
6.45B
-
17.54B
45.33B
-
14.53B
-
-
-
- 245679.00K
- 700000.00K
13.68M
-
-
-
- 686322.00K
- 11448.00K
- 20610.00K
6.03B
6.06B
922.84M
- 121158.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
598.0976926
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Entertainment
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
353.9662825
$247.62
$385.72
$420.31
$458.02