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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
NFG
Primary Facts
Oil & Gas Integrated
Name:
-
Sector:
- 42008.00K
Industry:
70.5
CEO:
Mr. David Bauer
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
3.22963537
-0.198735042
National Fuel Gas Company (XNYS:NFG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY (XNYS:NFG)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$70.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$72.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$70.79
Price Upper limit ($) :
$73.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P183
This week:
$67.71
This month :
$64.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
91.48M
Market Cap Classification:
6.41B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.15%
$58.04
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.42
13.32%
$63.58
$83.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$74.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.58
$66.82
$75.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Oil & Gas Integrated
Sharpe Ratio:
NFG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.06%
0.212097663
Sharpe ratio is 21.21% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Oil & Gas Integrated
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.41%
Yearly returns:
19.62%
Comparison of returns:
-7.22006E-05
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.01% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
NFG is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.51
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 62.82% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.96%
Monthly Volatility:
4.39%
Yearly Volatility:
8.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
38.29%
-20.94%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -20.94% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.95%
Monthly VaR:
-8.84%
How Much Can the price of
Oil & Gas Integrated
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$60.14
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-61.23%
Severe Crash Probability
-17.68%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
6.88%
NFG is a 24.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 6.88% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
NFG is a 24.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Oil & Gas Integrated
0.695
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.55
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.813
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.69
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -27.78% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.356
-0.620
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -62.04% lower than peers
-0.277783553
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -25.46% below industry mean WACC
75.35%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.150
0.185
7.455
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Oil & Gas Integrated
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 745% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.188
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -18.79% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.46%
Overall debt rating:
3.52%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.46%
-25.46%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 68.28% above the industry mean
-626.30%
EPS:
Four Hundred Seventy Million Nine Hundred Ninety-Eight Thousand Four Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-73.42%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 46.19% above the industry mean
-
-0.344484122
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -41% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Oil & Gas Integrated
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 75.35% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.11
-0.096715173
74.7574995
-0.056950801
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $42.25
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$21.85
0.682804998
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 68.28% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -626.30% below industry average
-2614.95%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -2614.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 8.77%
$0.48
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.48
Previous Dividend: $1.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.47
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.45
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.89%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-30--$0.46
2021-09-29--$0.46
2022-06-29--$0.48
2021-12-30--$0.46
2021-06-29--$0.46
-0.558435101
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
128.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.9 years
Debt to assets ratio:
35.79%
Net debt to assets ratio:
124.61%
-53.27%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.27% below industry average
-0.60
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-127.63%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
16.82007578
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.25%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
-7.43%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.292
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.046
Kurtosis
0.053
9.082
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.126
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Oil & Gas Integrated
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
838.53M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 74.22% higher than the industry
171.87%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
838.53M
Effective Tax Rate:
1.16%
-0.051165353
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -0.98% lower than the industry
42.99%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 171.87% higher than the industry
-0.98%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -59.64% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 42.99% higher than the industry
0.240172283
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$28.75
-0.183030849
Current ratio is 24.02% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -34.45% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -18.30% below industry average
-0.724201822
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -72% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.414018334
Profit generated per employee:
$11.95
-41%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -41% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.194230588
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -119% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.194230588
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Oil & Gas Integrated
$95.21
NOV INC. (XNYS:NOV)
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited (XNYS:SHI)
ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNYS:AR)
VALVOLINE INC. (XNYS:VVV)
HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION (XNYS:DINO)
Cosan SA (XNYS:CSAN)
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:SWN)
SHELL MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:SHLX)
Current Analyst Ratings
$5.15
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.00B
1.16B
170%
-
-
-
-
100.16M
1.26B
-
124.55M
347.66M
223%
147.41M
- 117801.00K
123%
147.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
132.39M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
44.12M
Change in Working Capital :
5.49M
Accounts Receivables:
- 103771.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 10873.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1622.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
93.25M
Investments in PP&E:
171.48M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
12/31/2021
2022
Q1
79.07M
-
79.07M
324.61M
102.72M
60.80M
567.19M
6.49B
5.48M
-
106.48M
-
419.77M
7.02B
-
7.59B
129.93M
166.00M
79.00K
34.89M
565.31M
896.14M
2.63B
1.15B
4.58B
-
5.48B
91.44M
1.28B
- 277026.0K
Value
100.16M
-
2.11B
7.59B
-
2.80B
-
30.00M
- 199710.00K
- 169710.00K
-
-
- 8859.00K
- 41487.00K
7.50M
- 42846.00K
-
- 41073.00K
79.07M
120.14M
171.48M
- 213491.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-6.489836861
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Oil & Gas Integrated
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
79.32322559
$79.32
$83.03
$86.90
$90.96