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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
MTN
Primary Facts
Resorts & Casinos
Name:
-
Sector:
298.89M
Industry:
222
CEO:
Mr. Robert Katz
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.813331375
2.222104527
Vail Resorts, Inc. (XNYS:MTN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
VAIL RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:MTN)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$223.5
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$231.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$223.
Price Upper limit ($) :
$240.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P454
This week:
$210.5
This month :
$196.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
40.25M
Market Cap Classification:
8.87B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.52%
$170.56
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$251.02
16.94%
$192.98
$275.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$237.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$168.60
$206.12
$243.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Resorts & Casinos
Sharpe Ratio:
MTN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.79%
-0.820364295
Sharpe ratio is -82.04% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Resorts & Casinos
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.11%
Yearly returns:
5.18%
Comparison of returns:
-0.846106243
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -84.61% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
MTN is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.66
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -77.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.53%
Monthly Volatility:
5.66%
Yearly Volatility:
11.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
49.39%
-87.73%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.73% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.18%
Monthly VaR:
-11.59%
How Much Can the price of
Resorts & Casinos
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$177.05
This translates to price declining to:
-20%
This translates to price declining to:
-80.27%
Severe Crash Probability
-23.17%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
40.11%
MTN is a 63.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
MTN is a 63.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Resorts & Casinos
1.208
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.6
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.911
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -41.85% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.434
-0.104
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -10.41% lower than peers
-0.418459021
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -12.55% below industry mean WACC
-84.87%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.288
-1.385
-3.979
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Resorts & Casinos
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -398% below the market average
-0.343
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -34.26% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.91%
Overall debt rating:
3.88%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.91%
-12.55%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2,415.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 44.95% above the industry mean
-125.57%
EPS:
Three Hundred Nine Million Nine Hundred Thirty-Two Thousand Seven Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -27.40% lower than the industry
-166.69%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 13.72% above the industry mean
-
0.950856182
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.32%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 77% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Resorts & Casinos
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -84.87% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.84
-0.311699382
322.5908915
-0.311821859
$13.40
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $2,586.98
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$61.19
0.449502161
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 44.95% above the industry mean
-
-0.273961531
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -125.57% below industry average
0.66%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 0.66% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 11.27%
$1.91
Previous Dividend: $1.91
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.91
Previous Dividend: $5.58
Expected next dividend best case: $2.46
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.36
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 11.17%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 09/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/06/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 06/09/2022
2022-03-29--$1.91
2021-10-04--$0.88
2022-06-24--$1.91
2021-12-27--$0.88
2020-03-25--$1.76
-1.227178814
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
110.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
25.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
202.23%
-37.02%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.02% below industry average
-0.03
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.9x
-
1.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
18.26713483
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.41%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.572
0.55%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.572
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.328
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
0.007
5.668
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.458
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Resorts & Casinos
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.14B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 74.91% higher than the industry
193.23%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.14B
Effective Tax Rate:
2.03%
-0.714765113
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 30.41% higher than the industry
4.70%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 193.23% higher than the industry
30.41%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -3.44% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 4.70% higher than the industry
-0.367399657
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$71.97
-1.226343724
Current ratio is -36.74% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 95.09% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -122.63% below industry average
0.540222505
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 54% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.768866913
Profit generated per employee:
$18.94
139%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 139% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
3.904850061
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 390% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
3.904850061
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Resorts & Casinos
$323.03
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC (XNYS:IHG)
WESTROCK COMPANY (XNYS:WRK)
FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:FND)
PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (XNYS:PKG)
PULTEGROUP, INC. (XNYS:PHM)
BORGWARNER INC. (XNYS:BWA)
FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SECURITY, INC. (XNYS:FBHS)
LEAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEA)
Current Analyst Ratings
$7.70
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/30/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.46B
1.32B
87%
-
346.81M
346.81M
-
188.39M
1.86B
-
149.66M
252.44M
-16%
44.49M
- 151859.00K
-144%
44.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 139332.00K
Differed Income Tax :
61.49M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 56603.00K
Change in Working Capital :
6.43M
Accounts Receivables:
483.06M
Other Working Capital:
12.16M
Other Non-Cash Items:
262.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 6014.00K
Investments in PP&E:
349.02M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
10/31/2021
2022
Q1
1.47B
-
1.47B
108.99M
103.70M
96.79M
1.78B
2.27B
1.79B
319.25M
-
-
136.12M
4.51B
-
6.29B
116.50M
150.83M
43.38M
743.81M
256.68M
1.27B
2.90B
243.31M
3.36B
-
4.62B
466.00K
598.83M
44.7M
Value
535.20M
788.49M
1.43B
6.06B
-
3.05B
-
-
- 39857.00K
- 39857.00K
- 38770.00K
-
-
- 35594.00K
- 10370.00K
- 84734.00K
- 142.00K
224.29M
1.48B
1.26B
349.02M
- 50130.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
1110.781076
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Resorts & Casinos
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
236.3830897
$236.38
$255.58
$276.33
$298.77