_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
MSEX
Primary Facts
Utilities�Regulated Water
Name:
-
Sector:
- 2656.00K
Industry:
89.21
CEO:
Mr. Dennis Doll
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.816773273
-0.714518092
Middlesex Water Company (XNAS:MSEX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
MIDDLESEX WATER COMPANY (XNAS:MSEX)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$89.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$90.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$89.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$92.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P276
This week:
$84.87
This month :
$79.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.61M
Market Cap Classification:
1.57B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.97%
$69.78
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$100.05
24.06%
$78.37
$109.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$95.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.06
$83.39
$97.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Utilities�Regulated Water
Sharpe Ratio:
MSEX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.67%
0.683030987
Sharpe ratio is 68.30% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Utilities�Regulated Water
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.38%
Yearly returns:
18.37%
Comparison of returns:
0.650363767
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 65.04% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
MSEX is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.22
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 23.27% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.41%
Monthly Volatility:
5.39%
Yearly Volatility:
10.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
46.95%
-76.22%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.22% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.87%
Monthly VaR:
-10.89%
How Much Can the price of
Utilities�Regulated Water
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$72.81
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-75.45%
Severe Crash Probability
-21.78%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
31.70%
MSEX is a 53.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
MSEX is a 53.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Utilities�Regulated Water
0.568
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.77
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 4.11% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.297
0.320
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 32.02% higher than peers
0.041141127
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -8.92% below industry mean WACC
-22.72%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
1.669
7.211
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Utilities�Regulated Water
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 721% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
0.022
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 2.23% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.47%
Overall debt rating:
1.95%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.47%
-8.92%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 19.88% above the industry mean
-113.47%
EPS:
Forty-One Million Four Hundred Thirty-Nine Thousand Two Hundred Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-93.28%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 14.11% above the industry mean
-
-0.033249878
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.39%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -28% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Utilities�Regulated Water
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -22.72% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
39.83
0.422289608
66.08712001
0.349884819
$2.37
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.24
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$8.34
0.198781678
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 19.88% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -113.47% below industry average
-89.51%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -89.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 12.26%
$0.29
Previous Dividend: $0.29
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.29
Previous Dividend: $1.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.16%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
2022-02-11--$0.29
2021-11-10--$0.29
2022-05-12--$0.29
2021-11-15--$0.29
2021-08-12--$0.27
-0.851886774
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
86.62%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 22.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
32.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
81.78%
-58.07%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.07% below industry average
2.44
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.4x
18.14%
0.39%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
12.59304933
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.33%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.434
-22.49%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.434
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.188
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.001
Kurtosis
-0.001
18.213
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
1.470
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Utilities�Regulated Water
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
72.34M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 14.65% higher than the industry
-4.22%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
72.34M
Effective Tax Rate:
0.64%
-1.951026171
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 22.71% higher than the industry
4.52%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -4.22% lower than the industry
22.71%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 244.47% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 4.52% higher than the industry
-0.200015398
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$17.64
-1.911503434
Current ratio is -20.00% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -3.32% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -191.15% below industry average
-0.217485524
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.282818228
Profit generated per employee:
$4.15
-22%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -22% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.074007585
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -7% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.074007585
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Utilities�Regulated Water
$118.75
Otter Tail Corporation (XNAS:OTTR)
THE YORK WATER COMPANY (XNAS:YORW)
CADIZ INC. (XNAS:CDZI)
ARTESIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:ARTNA)
GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC. (XNAS:GWRS)
SPKE
IPLDP
Pure Cycle Corporation (XNAS:PCYO)
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.36
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
146.80M
74.45M
197%
-
-
-
-
37.47M
111.93M
-
8.23M
27.33M
200%
- 4187.00K
2.68M
102%
- 4187.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.10M
Differed Income Tax :
6.83M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 2137.00K
Change in Working Capital :
267.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.17M
Other Working Capital:
- 3066.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1400.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 5247.00K
Investments in PP&E:
13.98M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
3.12M
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
3.29M
-
3.29M
21.63M
5.37M
2.57M
32.87M
862.37M
-
-
-
-
114.35M
976.72M
-
1.01B
18.06M
21.71M
14.03M
1.32M
18.58M
59.67M
310.72M
164.22M
569.95M
-
629.62M
225.09M
152.79M
-
Value
37.47M
-
379.97M
1.01B
-
332.43M
-
-
- 16631.00K
- 13509.00K
- 1228.00K
2.91M
-
- 5117.00K
2.73M
- 705.00K
-
- 239.00K
3.29M
3.53M
13.98M
- 16631.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-67.04472822
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Utilities�Regulated Water
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
102.2418931
$102.24
$106.14
$110.19
$114.39