_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
MNRO
Primary Facts
Auto Parts
Name:
-
Sector:
57.52M
Industry:
46.16
CEO:
Mr. Brett Ponton
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.693244572
5.293535551
Monro, Inc. (XNAS:MNRO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$46.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.37
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P392
This week:
$43.45
This month :
$40.1
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
32.20M
Market Cap Classification:
1.46B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-13.12%
$34.04
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.06
15.22%
$39.26
$58.75
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.57
$42.32
$51.21
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Auto Parts
Sharpe Ratio:
MNRO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.98%
-2.580177547
Sharpe ratio is -258.02% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Auto Parts
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
-0.04%
Monthly returns:
-0.18%
Yearly returns:
-8.43%
Comparison of returns:
-1.879914064
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -187.99% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
MNRO is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.68
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -167.89% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.84%
Monthly Volatility:
6.35%
Yearly Volatility:
12.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
55.38%
-87.61%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.61% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.87%
Monthly VaR:
-13.12%
How Much Can the price of
Auto Parts
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$35.26
This translates to price declining to:
-24%
This translates to price declining to:
-90.93%
Severe Crash Probability
-26.25%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
58.72%
MNRO is a 85.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 58.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
MNRO is a 85.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Auto Parts
1.061
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.769
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.689
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -12.51% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.585
-0.221
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -22.13% lower than peers
-0.125093949
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -23.56% below industry mean WACC
-78.47%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.975
9.040
-11.994
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Auto Parts
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -1199% below the market average
-0.091
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -9.07% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.90%
Overall debt rating:
2.29%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.90%
-23.56%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -52.25% below the industry mean
-108.42%
EPS:
Sixty Million Four Hundred Four Thousand Four Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-212.14%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -62.97% below the industry mean
-
-2.482518525
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.21%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Auto Parts
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -78.47% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.68
0.20271289
38.43386098
0.201024274
$4.25
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.37
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$42.22
-0.522469602
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -52.25% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -108.42% below industry average
-227.58%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -227.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 13.24%
$0.28
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.06
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.51%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-08--$0.26
2021-08-20--$0.26
2022-06-03--$0.28
2021-12-06--$0.26
2021-06-04--$0.24
-1.306590259
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
109.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
43.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
102.20%
-21.84%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.84% below industry average
-0.85
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-138.77%
9.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
11.87283353
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.52%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.413
-22.65%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.413
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.171
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
-0.003
3.696
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.144
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Auto Parts
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
481.84M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -52.20% lower than the industry
-21.36%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
481.84M
Effective Tax Rate:
1.23%
-0.151521091
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -64.48% lower than the industry
-62.13%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -21.36% lower than the industry
-64.48%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -84.82% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -62.13% lower than the industry
-0.601209354
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$24.08
-1.477947981
Current ratio is -60.12% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -248.25% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -147.79% below industry average
-0.517309119
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -52% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.702072278
Profit generated per employee:
$5.04
-79%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -79% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.007889419
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.007889419
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Auto Parts
$76.71
Niu Technologies (XNAS:NIU)
THE ODP CORPORATION (XNAS:ODP)
GENTHERM INCORPORATED (XNAS:THRM)
1-800-FLOWERS.COM, INC. (XNAS:FLWS)
DREAM FINDERS HOMES, INC. (XNAS:DFH)
BAOZUN INC. (XNAS:BZUN)
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.80
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/26/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.36B
877.49M
142%
-
-
380.54M
-
-
1.26B
-
24.63M
60.45M
47%
15.72M
- 24014.00K
23%
15.72M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.68M
Differed Income Tax :
20.28M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.93M
Change in Working Capital :
755.00K
Accounts Receivables:
23.24M
Other Working Capital:
9.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 64194.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 168.00K
Investments in PP&E:
62.71M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 62059.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
6/26/2021
2022
Q1
16.88M
-
16.88M
18.51M
167.50M
53.18M
256.07M
826.73M
757.67M
27.23M
-
5.81M
18.26M
1.64B
-
1.89B
121.38M
72.74M
-
12.67M
113.48M
320.26M
775.28M
18.24M
812.92M
-
1.13B
399.00K
631.88M
- 4722.0K
Value
380.54M
131.01M
758.59M
1.89B
-
848.02M
-
-
- 4703.00K
- 66762.00K
- 78661.00K
-
-
- 8152.00K
77.78M
- 9034.00K
-
- 13082.00K
16.88M
29.96M
62.71M
- 5199.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-163.9777101
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Auto Parts
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
58.24669336
$58.25
$62.40
$66.85
$71.61