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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
MKC
Primary Facts
Packaged Foods
Name:
-
Sector:
- 25800.00K
Industry:
83.05
CEO:
Mr. Lawrence Kurzius
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
2.892586285
-2.623885616
Mccormick & Company, Incorporated (XNYS:MKC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
MCCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED (XNYS:MKC)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$83.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$84.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$83.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$85.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P110
This week:
$80.02
This month :
$76.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
268.30M
Market Cap Classification:
22.28B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.92%
$69.48
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.71
15.23%
$75.39
$97.14
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$87.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.96
$78.85
$88.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaged Foods
Sharpe Ratio:
MKC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.31%
-0.864500891
Sharpe ratio is -86.45% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaged Foods
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.06%
Yearly returns:
2.88%
Comparison of returns:
-0.657385751
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -65.74% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
MKC is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.83
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -92.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.79%
Monthly Volatility:
3.99%
Yearly Volatility:
7.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
34.80%
-31.08%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.08% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.65%
Monthly VaR:
-8.17%
How Much Can the price of
Packaged Foods
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$71.16
This translates to price declining to:
-14%
This translates to price declining to:
-56.61%
Severe Crash Probability
-16.34%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-1.19%
MKC is a 15.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -1.19% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
MKC is a 15.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaged Foods
0.498
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.558
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.50
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -14.99% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.292
-0.076
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -7.59% lower than peers
-0.14987642
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -17.68% below industry mean WACC
-1.89%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
-3.930
-2.341
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaged Foods
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -234% below the market average
-0.084
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -8.40% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.49%
Overall debt rating:
1.97%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.49%
-17.68%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 51.58% above the industry mean
-58.06%
EPS:
Six Hundred Thirty-Three Million Seventy-One Thousand Seven Hundred Eighty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 36.75% higher than the industry
-91.75%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 1.44% above the industry mean
-
5.325105318
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.09%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -28% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaged Foods
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -1.89% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.8
-0.151207086
97.75992077
-0.150469852
$1.83
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.55
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$23.63
0.515772004
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 51.58% above the industry mean
-
0.367509613
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -58.06% below industry average
-289.66%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -289.66% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 14.71%
$0.37
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.42
Expected next dividend best case: $0.49
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/03/2022
2021-12-30--$0.37
2021-07-09--$0.34
2022-04-08--$0.37
2021-10-08--$0.34
2021-04-09--$0.34
8.654589897
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
109.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.4 years
Debt to assets ratio:
38.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
86.23%
-43.16%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.16% below industry average
-0.97
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.4x
-96.46%
0.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
16.8556664
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.29%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
26.19%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.293
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
0.014
16.417
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.009
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaged Foods
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.39B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 119.89% higher than the industry
195.94%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.39B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.65%
-0.551938245
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 16.42% higher than the industry
32.47%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 195.94% higher than the industry
16.42%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -96.54% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 32.47% higher than the industry
-0.734706476
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$14.78
-1.855723189
Current ratio is -73.47% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 532.51% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -185.57% below industry average
-0.424804041
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.275251394
Profit generated per employee:
$4.26
-8%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -8% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.504829637
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.504829637
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaged Foods
$99.46
MCCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED (XNYS:MKC)
CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC. (XNYS:CHD)
COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS PLC (XNAS:CCEP)
Mexican Economic Development, Inc. (XNYS:FMX)
KELLOGG COMPANY (XNYS:K)
THE CLOROX COMPANY (XNYS:CLX)
BF-A
BF-B
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.53
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�42%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
5/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.34B
3.95B
150%
-
-
1.41B
-
-
5.36B
-
134.00M
192.60M
72%
144.80M
- 112700.00K
50%
144.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
154.90M
Differed Income Tax :
49.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
11.10M
Accounts Receivables:
- 197000.00K
Other Working Capital:
5.20M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 185500.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 100.00K
Investments in PP&E:
17.90M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
2/28/2022
2022
Q1
338.40M
-
338.40M
516.70M
1.24B
139.70M
2.24B
1.14B
5.33B
3.44B
-
-
788.80M
10.70B
-
12.94B
1.07B
1.41B
-
-
596.60M
3.08B
3.96B
488.90M
5.25B
-
8.33B
2.09B
2.92B
- 416000.0K
Value
1.41B
-
4.60B
12.92B
-
5.37B
-
-
- 43700.00K
- 43700.00K
- 3500.00K
-
- 8700.00K
- 99000.00K
115.60M
4.40M
8.10M
- 13300.00K
338.40M
351.70M
17.90M
- 43700.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-1400.76692
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaged Foods
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
87.18715897
$87.19
$90.11
$93.12
$96.24