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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
MCD
Primary Facts
Restaurants
Name:
-
Sector:
1.73B
Industry:
254.51
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Kempczinski
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.052410886
-0.76340119
Mcdonald'S Corporation (XNYS:MCD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
MCDONALD'S CORPORATION (XNYS:MCD)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$255.33
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$259.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$255.41
Price Upper limit ($) :
$264.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P411
This week:
$245.45
This month :
$234.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
735.72M
Market Cap Classification:
187.16B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.88%
$213.99
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$277.12
18.13%
$231.90
$296.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$266.65
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$212.48
$242.37
$270.80
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Restaurants
Sharpe Ratio:
MCD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.65%
0.571278007
Sharpe ratio is 57.13% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Restaurants
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.27%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
-0.184290765
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.43% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
MCD is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.55
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 13.62% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.76%
Monthly Volatility:
3.94%
Yearly Volatility:
7.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
34.31%
-32.42%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -32.42% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.56%
Monthly VaR:
-7.96%
How Much Can the price of
Restaurants
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$220.26
This translates to price declining to:
-13%
This translates to price declining to:
-55.16%
Severe Crash Probability
-15.92%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-3.73%
MCD is a 12.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -3.73% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
MCD is a 12.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Restaurants
0.572
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.733
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.561
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -57.76% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-0.106
-0.473
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -47.33% lower than peers
-0.577552033
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -43.77% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.793
0.670
3.817
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Restaurants
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 382% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.431
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -43.11% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-1.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.47%
Overall debt rating:
1.95%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.47%
-43.77%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $90.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 141.54% above the industry mean
-31.53%
EPS:
Seven Billion Four Million Fifty-Nine Thousand Three Hundred Fifty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -45.12% lower than the industry
119.64%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 2138.36% above the industry mean
-
-3.434919883
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.80%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 124% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Restaurants
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.36
0.325413484
224.0674662
0.135863248
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $108.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$32.30
1.415416471
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 141.54% above the industry mean
-
-0.451190624
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -31.53% below industry average
-82.34%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -82.34% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 14.41%
$1.38
Previous Dividend: $1.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.38
Previous Dividend: $5.43
Expected next dividend best case: $1.43
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.02%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-02-28--$1.38
2021-08-31--$1.29
2022-06-03--$1.38
2021-11-30--$1.38
2021-05-28--$1.29
-1.448082907
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-754.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.9 years
Debt to assets ratio:
88.87%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-782.21%
-41.56%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.56% below industry average
-0.45
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.7x
-114.73%
2.80%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
28.50665469
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.24%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.737
42.49%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.737
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.543
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.026
Kurtosis
0.027
30.121
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.492
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Restaurants
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
12.96B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 218.37% higher than the industry
364.96%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
12.96B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.76%
0.059648625
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -1.52% lower than the industry
-37193.51%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 364.96% higher than the industry
-1.52%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -45.09% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -37193.51% lower than the industry
-0.021011105
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$63.69
-1.138682255
Current ratio is -2.10% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -343.49% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -113.87% below industry average
0.059406723
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
1.23605297
Profit generated per employee:
$15.48
149%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 149% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
2.582395591
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 258% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
2.582395591
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Restaurants
$328.67
LOWE'S COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:LOW)
NIKE, INC. (XNYS:NKE)
TM
FORD MOTOR COMPANY (XNYS:F)
GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY (XNYS:GM)
THE TJX COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:TJX)
Stellantis NV (XNYS:STLA)
Ferrari NV (XNYS:RACE)
Current Analyst Ratings
$9.47
Strong buy�33%
Buy�63%
Hold�42%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
23.76B
10.80B
218%
-
-
2.47B
-
346.40M
13.62B
10.00M
1.17B
1.50B
191%
1.60B
- 1670900.00K
146%
1.60B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.10B
Differed Income Tax :
479.70M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 50500.00K
Change in Working Capital :
54.30M
Accounts Receivables:
473.40M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
72.00M
Investments in PP&E:
2.13B
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 70200.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
2.34B
-
2.34B
1.67B
49.60M
597.00M
4.66B
37.81B
2.81B
-
1.18B
-
4.42B
46.22B
-
50.88B
718.60M
691.90M
864.20M
-
2.82B
4.23B
46.86B
2.98B
52.63B
-
56.87B
16.60M
57.61B
- 2641900.0K
Value
2.82B
- 60979500.00K
- 5990800.00K
50.88B
-
47.55B
-
-
- 484300.00K
- 554500.00K
- 1350600.00K
-
- 1506500.00K
- 1025100.00K
52.10M
- 3830100.00K
- 122200.00K
- 2373500.00K
2.34B
4.71B
2.13B
- 401200.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-97.84757226
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Restaurants
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
282.648354
$282.65
$293.51
$304.79
$316.50