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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
LQDT
Primary Facts
Internet Retail
Name:
-
Sector:
- 94.00K
Industry:
17.07
CEO:
Mr. William Angrick
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.118339903
-1.289260646
Liquidity Services, Inc. (XNAS:LQDT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
LIQUIDITY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:LQDT)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$17.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.88
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.69
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P123
This week:
$15.48
This month :
$13.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
35.58M
Market Cap Classification:
634.47M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-18.92%
$9.97
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.98
41.5%
$13.16
$24.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.71
$15.01
$19.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Internet Retail
Sharpe Ratio:
LQDT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.07%
0.697255855
Sharpe ratio is 69.73% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Internet Retail
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.25%
Yearly returns:
60.20%
Comparison of returns:
0.614372268
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 61.44% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
LQDT is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.50
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 128.33% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
4.65%
Monthly Volatility:
10.40%
Yearly Volatility:
20.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
90.64%
-74.76%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.76% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-9.30%
Monthly VaR:
-20.79%
How Much Can the price of
Internet Retail
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$11.29
This translates to price declining to:
-34%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-41.58%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
151.44%
LQDT is a 193.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 151.44% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
LQDT is a 193.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Internet Retail
1.410
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.608
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.41
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -33.02% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.236
-0.160
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -16.03% lower than peers
-0.330241618
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 15.20% above industry mean WACC
-40.85%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
1.403
30.170
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Internet Retail
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 3017% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.271
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -27.10% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.28%
Overall debt rating:
0.22%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.28%
15.20%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 7.88% above the industry mean
-80.26%
EPS:
Fifty-Seven Million Nine Hundred Eighty-Eight Thousand Eight Hundred Eighty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -21.55% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.23%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -63% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Internet Retail
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -40.85% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.05
-0.456957651
27.17865561
-0.371933614
$1.23
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$7.73
0.078757304
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 7.88% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -80.26% below industry average
-868.36%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -868.36% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-54.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-26.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.59%
-93.74%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.74% below industry average
88.82
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
-9.13%
0.23%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
4.580159972
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.54%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.173
-60.88%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.173
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.042
Kurtosis
-0.112
15.987
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
1.892
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Internet Retail
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
159.53M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 158.95% higher than the industry
56.84%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
159.53M
Effective Tax Rate:
4.02%
-7.992331442
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 571.18% higher than the industry
110.19%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 56.84% higher than the industry
571.18%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 8881.79% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 110.19% higher than the industry
-0.516114549
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.33
-4.651436274
Current ratio is -51.61% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -465.14% below industry average
-0.414059226
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.626286694
Profit generated per employee:
$1.21
-47%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -47% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.097459334
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -110% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.097459334
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Internet Retail
$39.14
CHUY'S HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CHUY)
INTERFACE, INC. (XNAS:TILE)
LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LIND)
CARLOTZ, INC. (XNAS:LOTZ)
WESTPORT FUEL SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:WPRT)
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SPWH)
RUTH'S HOSPITALITY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:RUTH)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.63
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
274.98M
115.45M
232%
-
83.14M
124.07M
40.93M
8.12M
247.64M
374.00K
46.00K
8.33M
63%
- 22003.00K
374.00K
50%
- 22003.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.60M
Differed Income Tax :
2.30M
Stock Based Compensation :
881.00K
Change in Working Capital :
2.28M
Accounts Receivables:
- 7092.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.38M
Other Non-Cash Items:
274.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 102.00K
Investments in PP&E:
1.87M
Net Acquisitions:
- 1964.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 11063.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
12/31/2021
2022
Q1
91.32M
-
91.32M
7.80M
13.23M
8.14M
120.49M
33.47M
88.73M
19.19M
-
19.22M
5.79M
166.39M
-
286.88M
80.25M
4.38M
-
4.69M
35.71M
125.02M
11.77M
13.00M
24.78M
-
149.80M
36.00K
- 67660.00K
- 9142.0K
Value
132.19M
213.85M
137.08M
286.88M
-
16.16M
-
-
6.00K
- 13021.00K
- 27.00K
-
- 2963.00K
-
- 851.00K
- 3841.00K
- 23.00K
- 15014.00K
91.32M
106.34M
1.87M
- 1965.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-13.3071611
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Internet Retail
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
27.25265609
$18.78
$29.83
$32.66
$35.75