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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
LHCG
Primary Facts
Medical Care Facilities
Name:
-
Sector:
- 71398.00K
Industry:
161.59
CEO:
Mr. Keith Myers
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.457854271
5.254827377
Lhc Group, Inc. (XNAS:LHCG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
LHC GROUP, INC. (XNAS:LHCG)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$162.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$164.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$162.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$166.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P448
This week:
$153.2
This month :
$142.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
31.03M
Market Cap Classification:
5.03B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-19.03%
$124.06
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$182.59
10.97%
$140.59
$200.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$172.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$122.66
$150.25
$176.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Medical Care Facilities
Sharpe Ratio:
LHCG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.22%
-0.047817103
Sharpe ratio is -4.78% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Medical Care Facilities
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.32%
Yearly returns:
15.13%
Comparison of returns:
-0.342632867
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -34.26% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
LHCG is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
1.00
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -7.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.56%
Monthly Volatility:
5.72%
Yearly Volatility:
11.45%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
49.89%
-83.41%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.41% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.19%
Monthly VaR:
-11.61%
How Much Can the price of
Medical Care Facilities
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$129.57
This translates to price declining to:
-20%
This translates to price declining to:
-80.45%
Severe Crash Probability
-23.22%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
40.42%
LHCG is a 63.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
LHCG is a 63.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Medical Care Facilities
0.485
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.674
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.477
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.49
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -54.51% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.34
-0.622
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -62.20% lower than peers
-0.545136503
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -33.83% below industry mean WACC
-77.05%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.675
-0.311
5.507
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Medical Care Facilities
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 551% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.381
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -38.10% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
0.73%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
-33.83%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 4.48% above the industry mean
-82.46%
EPS:
Ninety-Nine Million Nine Hundred Ten Thousand One Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-60.46%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -51.40% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 23.57%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -77% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Medical Care Facilities
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -77.05% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
68.54
-0.025920772
226.5660942
-0.286786487
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$73.04
0.044792177
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 4.48% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -82.46% below industry average
-60.75%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -60.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.36%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
29.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
54.45%
-46.47%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.47% below industry average
0.24
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.4x
1254.86%
23.57%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
13.37271812
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.37%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.455
5.42%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.455
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.207
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.044
Kurtosis
-0.066
7.593
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.660
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Medical Care Facilities
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
889.56M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -162.10% lower than the industry
-205.03%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
889.56M
Effective Tax Rate:
4.35%
-0.019753394
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -21.82% lower than the industry
-63.92%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -205.03% lower than the industry
-21.82%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 24.02% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -63.92% lower than the industry
-0.23229845
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$27.41
1.204793186
Current ratio is -23.23% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 120.48% above industry average
-0.59375576
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.768486915
Profit generated per employee:
$6.56
-78%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -78% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.649701894
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -165% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.649701894
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Medical Care Facilities
$322.36
SURGERY PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:SGRY)
CERTARA, INC. (XNAS:CERT)
INMODE LTD (XNAS:INMD)
STAAR SURGICAL COMPANY (XNAS:STAA)
ALKERMES PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ALKS)
INARI MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:NARI)
APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:APLS)
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IONS)
Current Analyst Ratings
$3.22
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.27B
1.38B
157%
-
696.01M
696.01M
-
21.54M
2.09B
-
8.25M
60.25M
36%
34.62M
- 8246.00K
29%
34.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.98M
Differed Income Tax :
15.75M
Stock Based Compensation :
6.72M
Change in Working Capital :
4.38M
Accounts Receivables:
- 118163.00K
Other Working Capital:
10.60M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 60367.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.38M
Investments in PP&E:
- 64956.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 6442.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 100.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
7.68M
-
7.68M
388.19M
-
89.37M
485.24M
268.63M
1.75B
397.97M
-
-
44.20M
2.46B
-
2.94B
103.15M
37.63M
-
43.92M
158.65M
343.35M
850.56M
25.08M
952.38M
-
1.30B
367.00K
770.48M
-
Value
717.55M
791.31M
1.56B
2.86B
-
888.19M
-
-
-
- 6542.00K
- 262355.00K
-
- 34565.00K
-
366.29M
69.37M
-
- 2129.00K
7.68M
9.81M
- 64956.00K
- 6442.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
121.353743
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Medical Care Facilities
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
283.5139098
$167.69
$292.76
$302.31
$312.17