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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
LANC
Primary Facts
Packaged Foods
Name:
-
Sector:
- 31399.00K
Industry:
168.25
CEO:
Mr. David Ciesinski
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.478804097
-1.26879858
Lancaster Colony Corporation (XNAS:LANC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$168.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$168.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$168.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$168.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P198
This week:
$161.19
This month :
$152.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.52M
Market Cap Classification:
4.66B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-16.68%
$136.68
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$186.00
14.2%
$150.50
$201.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$177.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$135.49
$158.59
$181.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaged Foods
Sharpe Ratio:
LANC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.31%
-0.194282662
Sharpe ratio is -19.43% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaged Foods
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.15%
Yearly returns:
7.34%
Comparison of returns:
-0.128309744
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -12.83% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
LANC is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.19
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -53.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.06%
Monthly Volatility:
4.60%
Yearly Volatility:
9.20%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
40.11%
-69.97%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.97% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.20%
Monthly VaR:
-9.38%
How Much Can the price of
Packaged Foods
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$140.92
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-65.00%
Severe Crash Probability
-18.76%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
13.45%
LANC is a 32.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 13.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
LANC is a 32.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaged Foods
0.046
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.652
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.389
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.05
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -92.17% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.045
-0.949
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -94.89% lower than peers
-0.921660967
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-45.33%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.551
2.086
2.466
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaged Foods
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 247% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.516
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -51.64% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $153.21
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 24.05% above the industry mean
-44.68%
EPS:
Ninety-Two Million One Hundred Ninety-Eight Thousand Seven Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-132.95%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 14.42% above the industry mean
-
4.262877582
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -54% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaged Foods
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -45.33% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
51.78
0.339992708
129.4449544
0.299780287
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $211.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$58.49
0.24049133
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 24.05% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -44.68% below industry average
-54.35%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -54.35% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 22.41%
$0.80
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.80
Previous Dividend: $3.15
Expected next dividend best case: $0.83
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.77
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.75
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.38%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-08--$0.80
2021-09-09--$0.75
2022-06-08--$0.80
2021-12-03--$0.80
2021-06-08--$0.75
-4.806666874
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-13.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-10.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.16%
-96.95%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.95% below industry average
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
-87.47%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
12.66801781
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.32%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.436
1.60%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.436
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.19
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.006
Kurtosis
-0.007
14.767
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.026
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaged Foods
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
353.98M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 18.76% higher than the industry
53.32%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
353.98M
Effective Tax Rate:
2.46%
-0.443688054
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 85.28% higher than the industry
-1.74%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 53.32% higher than the industry
85.28%
Financial Leverage:
-
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -1.74% lower than the industry
-0.168943178
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.67
-1.062327426
Current ratio is -16.89% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 426.29% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -106.23% below industry average
-0.361026913
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.540858346
Profit generated per employee:
$6.02
-45%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -45% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
1.636506287
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 164% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
1.636506287
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaged Foods
$215.70
HELEN OF TROY LIMITED (XNAS:HELE)
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HAIN)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (XNAS:GO)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
Current Analyst Ratings
$3.35
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.61B
1.26B
88%
-
51.86M
213.68M
-
-
1.47B
-
-
46.36M
41%
27.06M
210.00K
30%
27.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.66M
Differed Income Tax :
11.26M
Stock Based Compensation :
800.00K
Change in Working Capital :
2.27M
Accounts Receivables:
- 46026.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 137.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1172.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 30227.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
9/30/2021
2022
Q1
130.09M
-
130.09M
108.37M
158.37M
13.03M
409.86M
416.19M
208.37M
57.63M
-
-
23.09M
705.28M
-
1.12B
127.75M
-
-
-
52.03M
179.79M
18.35M
27.50M
85.29M
-
265.08M
130.83M
1.49B
- 8211.0K
Value
213.68M
- 764766.00K
850.06M
1.12B
-
18.35M
-
-
134.00K
- 30093.00K
-
-
- 5329.00K
- 20675.00K
- 697.00K
- 26701.00K
-
- 57966.00K
130.09M
188.06M
- 1172.00K
- 30227.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-6.916384071
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaged Foods
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
213.0618707
$213.06
$213.72
$214.38
$215.04