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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
KR
Primary Facts
Grocery Stores
Name:
-
Sector:
1.44B
Industry:
48.43
CEO:
Mr. William McMullen
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.619694127
-0.568444475
The Kroger Co. (XNYS:KR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
THE KROGER CO. (XNYS:KR)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$48.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$49.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$48.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.96
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P2
This week:
$46.47
This month :
$44.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
715.56M
Market Cap Classification:
34.72B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-8.7%
$39.66
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.28
11.61%
$43.58
$57.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.34
$45.87
$51.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Grocery Stores
Sharpe Ratio:
KR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.81%
0.185369378
Sharpe ratio is 18.54% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Grocery Stores
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.50%
Yearly returns:
24.01%
Comparison of returns:
0.039966416
Classification:
Average annual return/yield (last 3 years) is 4.00% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
KR is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.53
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 98.07% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.02%
Monthly Volatility:
4.52%
Yearly Volatility:
9.03%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
39.38%
-32.59%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -32.59% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.05%
Monthly VaR:
-9.05%
How Much Can the price of
Grocery Stores
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$41.23
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-62.72%
Severe Crash Probability
-18.11%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
9.48%
KR is a 27.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 9.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
KR is a 27.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Grocery Stores
0.472
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.214
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.616
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.47
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -14.24% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.174
-0.179
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -17.90% lower than peers
-0.142389525
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 1.98% above industry mean WACC
-66.25%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.871
0.090
11.223
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Grocery Stores
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1122% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.078
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -7.75% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.35%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.75%
Overall debt rating:
2.17%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.75%
1.98%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $24.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -57.51% below the industry mean
-
EPS:
Two Billion One Hundred Ten Million Four Hundred Eighty-Three Thousand Seven Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -22.39% lower than the industry
-210.77%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 17.68% above the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.67%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -83% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Grocery Stores
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -66.25% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.77
-0.169489554
58.57262872
-0.173163284
$3.40
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $55.51
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$197.31
-0.575057556
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -57.51% below the industry mean
-
-0.223893174
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.33%
$0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.92%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/10/2022
2022-02-14--$0.21
2021-08-12--$0.21
2022-05-12--$0.21
2021-11-12--$0.21
2021-05-13--$0.18
-1.171226874
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
204.18%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
38.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
209.76%
-42.95%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.95% below industry average
0.20
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-
1.67%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
4.972646776
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.24%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.187
-39.98%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.187
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.031
Kurtosis
0.037
4.765
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.268
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Grocery Stores
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
30.65B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -15.20% lower than the industry
62.55%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
30.65B
Effective Tax Rate:
2.57%
-0.029443462
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -3.28% lower than the industry
21.43%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 62.55% higher than the industry
-3.28%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 19.75% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 21.43% higher than the industry
-0.347287279
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$27.05
-1.345394783
Current ratio is -34.73% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -134.54% below industry average
-0.205713358
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.826693888
Profit generated per employee:
$9.12
-64%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -64% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.436360494
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.436360494
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Grocery Stores
$59.30
TYSON FOODS, INC. (XNYS:TSN)
BROWN-FORMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:BF.B)
BF SpA (XLON:0RQY)
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
Mexican Economic Development, Inc. (XNYS:FMX)
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.90
Strong buy�25%
Buy�13%
Hold�58%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
5/21/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
141.19B
110.54B
87%
-
23.36B
23.36B
-
1.96B
135.87B
-
582.00M
3.27B
19%
495.00M
- 1493000.00K
8%
495.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
140.00M
Differed Income Tax :
1.05B
Stock Based Compensation :
- 2000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
56.00M
Accounts Receivables:
396.00M
Other Working Capital:
341.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
145.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
614.00M
Investments in PP&E:
2.26B
Net Acquisitions:
- 820000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
5/22/2021
2022
Q1
2.31B
1.01B
3.32B
1.94B
6.77B
522.00M
12.55B
29.72B
3.08B
978.00M
-
-
2.49B
36.27B
-
48.81B
7.02B
1.79B
-
-
6.40B
15.21B
19.36B
3.47B
24.37B
-
39.58B
-
-
- 627000.0K
Value
25.32B
-
9.23B
48.81B
-
21.15B
-
-
- 33000.00K
- 853000.00K
- 328000.00K
31.00M
- 402000.00K
- 138000.00K
56.00M
- 781000.00K
-
622.00M
2.31B
1.69B
2.26B
- 820000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-0.272037133
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Grocery Stores
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
52.34268631
$52.34
$54.00
$55.71
$57.48