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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
KDP
Primary Facts
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
Name:
-
Sector:
544.00M
Industry:
37.83
CEO:
Mr. Robert Gamgort
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.245245326
-6.993318692
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (XNAS:KDP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC. (XNAS:KDP)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$37.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$37.96
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P87
This week:
$36.51
This month :
$34.87
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.42B
Market Cap Classification:
53.20B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-16.49%
$31.91
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.13
22.15%
$34.53
$43.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.69
$36.06
$40.21
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
Sharpe Ratio:
KDP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
4.03%
-0.348525013
Sharpe ratio is -34.85% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.27%
Yearly returns:
13.04%
Comparison of returns:
-0.64178465
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -64.18% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
KDP is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.89
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 15.27% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.73%
Monthly Volatility:
3.87%
Yearly Volatility:
7.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
33.75%
-52.91%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.91% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.50%
Monthly VaR:
-7.83%
How Much Can the price of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$32.83
This translates to price declining to:
-13%
This translates to price declining to:
-54.25%
Severe Crash Probability
-15.66%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-5.31%
KDP is a 10.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -5.31% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
KDP is a 10.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
0.651
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.491
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.609
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -28.69% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.47
-0.080
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -8.04% lower than peers
-0.286897048
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -20.42% below industry mean WACC
-81.54%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.861
-0.799
3.459
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 346% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.191
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -19.08% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.18%
Overall debt rating:
3.30%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.18%
-20.42%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -34.50% below the industry mean
-55.62%
EPS:
Two Billion Three Hundred Eighty-Three Million One Hundred Fifty-Eight Thousand Nine Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 215.29% higher than the industry
-113.64%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -79.33% below the industry mean
-
1.775431232
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.78%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -6% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -81.54% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.8
-0.796982502
205.2137599
-0.815655636
$1.75
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.78
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$9.08
-0.344956746
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -34.50% below the industry mean
-
2.152882059
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -55.62% below industry average
-237.94%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -237.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 11.01%
$0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.75
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.51%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 17/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/05/2022
2022-03-31--$0.19
2021-09-30--$0.19
2022-06-30--$0.19
2022-01-05--$0.19
2021-06-30--$0.19
1.11410889
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
24.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
50.70%
-51.82%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.82% below industry average
-2.16
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
348.76%
2.78%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
15.08413115
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.24%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.499
-7.62%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.499
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.249
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.012
Kurtosis
0.012
50.710
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
1.643
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
7.03B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 29.59% higher than the industry
73.43%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
7.03B
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.62%
0.22887377
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -58.50% lower than the industry
-69.73%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 73.43% higher than the industry
-58.50%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -215.80% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -69.73% lower than the industry
-0.736840591
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$9.13
-3.532605698
Current ratio is -73.68% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 177.54% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -353.26% below industry average
-0.462567525
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -46% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.064462158
Profit generated per employee:
$3.13
-26%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -26% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.128484464
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -13% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.128484464
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
$52.73
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (XNYS:DG)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND COMPANY (XNYS:ADM)
BF-A
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.68
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.86B
5.83B
219%
-
-
4.21B
-
- 104000.00K
9.94B
-
548.00M
715.00M
137%
760.00M
- 55000.00K
98%
760.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
585.00M
Differed Income Tax :
182.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 15000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 80000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
135.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 17000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
663.00M
Net Acquisitions:
- 109000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
47.00M
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
592.00M
-
592.00M
1.36B
1.05B
495.00M
3.49B
3.25B
20.24B
23.89B
80.00M
38.00M
259.00M
47.75B
-
51.24B
4.51B
174.00M
282.00M
-
1.76B
6.45B
12.93B
297.00M
19.29B
-
25.73B
14.00M
3.52B
215.0M
Value
4.11B
21.76B
25.51B
51.24B
-
13.11B
-
-
65.00M
3.00M
- 370000.00K
-
-
- 265000.00K
- 9000.00K
- 644000.00K
4.00M
26.00M
594.00M
568.00M
663.00M
- 119000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-360.412162
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
44.43239339
$44.43
$46.38
$48.40
$50.52