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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
IRWD
Primary Facts
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Name:
-
Sector:
-
Industry:
10.88
CEO:
Mr. Mark Mallon
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.888761587
-94.45184105
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:IRWD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IRWD)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$10.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P112
This week:
$10.32
This month :
$9.64
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
153.23M
Market Cap Classification:
1.67B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.81%
$8.39
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.29
9.67%
$9.47
$13.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.65
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.30
$10.11
$11.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Sharpe Ratio:
IRWD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.91%
-0.851021265
Sharpe ratio is -85.10% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.06%
Yearly returns:
2.94%
Comparison of returns:
-0.79320779
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -79.32% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
IRWD is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.98
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -94.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.50%
Monthly Volatility:
5.58%
Yearly Volatility:
11.16%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
48.64%
-65.62%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.62% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.11%
Monthly VaR:
-11.43%
How Much Can the price of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$8.70
This translates to price declining to:
-20%
This translates to price declining to:
-79.20%
Severe Crash Probability
-22.86%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
38.24%
IRWD is a 61.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
IRWD is a 61.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
1.034
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.438
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.704
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.03
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -1.87% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.352
-0.061
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -6.13% lower than peers
-0.018687575
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -7.20% below industry mean WACC
420.19%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.996
-2.904
-4.645
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -465% below the market average
-0.013
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -1.30% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.89%
Overall debt rating:
3.87%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.89%
-7.20%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -44.25% below the industry mean
-93.83%
EPS:
Four Hundred Ninety Million Seven Hundred Forty-Three Thousand Two Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -73.53% lower than the industry
684.53%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -98.40% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -405.46% lower than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 1078% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 420.19% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.96
-0.725725053
127.4767397
-0.914651096
$12,720.54
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$2.76
-0.442543369
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -44.25% below the industry mean
-
-0.735300096
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -93.83% below industry average
-49.61%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -49.61% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-10.93%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.2 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-5.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
79.78%
-26.02%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -26.02% below industry average
0.34
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.6x
48.62%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
8.497692766
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.41%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.309
-24.31%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.309
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.095
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.001
Kurtosis
0.001
1.786
Skewness of returns:
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
-0.110
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Drug Manufacturers �Specialty & Generic
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
324.91M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -471.21% lower than the industry
-272.26%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
324.91M
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-12.00358953
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -1404.49% lower than the industry
-1123.83%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -272.26% lower than the industry
-1404.49%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 33.76% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -1123.83% lower than the industry
0.462142646
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$2.70
-
Current ratio is 46.21% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
1.2952479
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 130% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
10.77821937
Profit generated per employee:
$1.59
2243%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 2243% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-20.05%
-4.054588488
Competitors/Peer firms of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
$15.31
TRANSFORMERS AND RECTIFIERS (INDIA) LIMITED (XNSE:TRIL)
PROTHENA CORPORATION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:PRTA)
CASSAVA SCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:SAVA)
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
MYRIAD GENETICS, INC. (XNAS:MYGN)
Outset Medical, Inc. (XNAS:OM)
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GBT)
MODIVCARE INC. (XNAS:MODV)
Current Analyst Ratings
$3.19
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
422.44M
-
300%
65.74M
-
112.34M
-
-
138.40M
760.00K
26.26M
1.11M
233%
- 310559.00K
- 27943.00K
207%
- 310559.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
0.25K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
- 0.25K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
593.37M
-
593.37M
105.52M
-
11.22M
710.10M
22.26M
-
-
-
335.44M
15.58M
373.28M
-
1.08B
532.00K
123.68M
-
-
23.19M
147.40M
413.08M
5.11M
418.20M
-
565.60M
155.00K
- 832640.00K
-
Value
178.09M
1.35B
517.78M
1.08B
-
536.76M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
621.86M
-
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-87739.80368
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
11.6982
$11.70
$12.51
$13.38
$14.31