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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
INVA
Primary Facts
Biotechnology
Name:
-
Sector:
98.09M
Industry:
13.08
CEO:
Mr. Michael Aguiar
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.773184614
-0.141148981
Innoviva, Inc. (XNAS:INVA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
INNOVIVA, INC. (XNAS:INVA)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$13.11
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P402
This week:
$12.37
This month :
$11.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
69.71M
Market Cap Classification:
945.21M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-18.%
$9.89
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.88
14.9%
$11.28
$16.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.77
$12.10
$14.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Biotechnology
Sharpe Ratio:
INVA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.94%
-0.544325759
Sharpe ratio is -54.43% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Biotechnology
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.16%
Yearly returns:
7.81%
Comparison of returns:
-0.690506563
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.05% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
INVA is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.94
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -61.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.67%
Monthly Volatility:
5.98%
Yearly Volatility:
11.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
52.10%
-63.89%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.89% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.46%
Monthly VaR:
-12.20%
How Much Can the price of
Biotechnology
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$10.31
This translates to price declining to:
-21%
This translates to price declining to:
-84.53%
Severe Crash Probability
-24.40%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
47.54%
INVA is a 72.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
INVA is a 72.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Biotechnology
0.478
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.774
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.554
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.48
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -58.52% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.246
-0.632
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -63.22% lower than peers
-0.585151121
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -50.00% below industry mean WACC
68.03%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.784
-0.902
0.881
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Biotechnology
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 88% compared to market & is healthy
-0.418
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -41.82% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.22%
Overall debt rating:
2.55%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.22%
-50.00%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -94.32% below the industry mean
-91.37%
EPS:
One Hundred Forty-Eight Million Four Hundred Fifty-Eight Thousand Eight Hundred Seventy Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -89.90% lower than the industry
128.42%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -91.46% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1789.40% higher than the industry
26.87332339
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 27.17%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 14376% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Biotechnology
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 68.03% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.17
-0.886652506
191.1198145
-0.931561256
$5.94
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$5.69
-0.943214552
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -94.32% below the industry mean
-
-0.899049015
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.37% below industry average
-146.78%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -146.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
83.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.1 years
Debt to assets ratio:
29.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
114.51%
-5.17%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -5.17% below industry average
-1.14
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-98.25%
27.17%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
12.10748712
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.42%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.42
23.55%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.42
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.176
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
0.021
8.435
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.274
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Biotechnology
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
107.68M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -111.03% lower than the industry
-121.97%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
107.68M
Effective Tax Rate:
0.51%
2.090493553
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -182.98% lower than the industry
-184.58%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -121.97% lower than the industry
-182.98%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -113.55% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -184.58% lower than the industry
-0.640553904
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$6.35
-
Current ratio is -64.06% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 2687.33% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
48.20365631
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 4820% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
143.7601302
Profit generated per employee:
$4.00
29206%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 29206% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
132.2349678
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 13223% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
132.2349678
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-67.79%
17.89399773
Competitors/Peer firms of
Biotechnology
$33.62
REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:REPL)
ATRION CORPORATION (XNAS:ATRI)
SNDL Inc. (XNAS:SNDL)
AVEANNA HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:AVAH)
AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC (XNAS:AMPH)
NURIX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NRIX)
TIVITY HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:TVTY)
KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KROS)
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.13
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
396.41M
-
100%
6.37M
16.69M
16.69M
-
-
23.06M
1.25M
17.39M
10.42M
281%
63.56M
- 12786.00K
363%
63.56M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
37.86M
Differed Income Tax :
3.50M
Stock Based Compensation :
6.86M
Change in Working Capital :
954.00K
Accounts Receivables:
18.20M
Other Working Capital:
198.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
30.73M
Investments in PP&E:
98.10M
Net Acquisitions:
- 9.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 35162.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
216.80M
-
216.80M
93.52M
-
7.51M
317.82M
3.99M
5.54M
105.00M
544.44M
22.40M
108.29M
789.65M
-
1.11B
1.81M
96.64M
-
-
10.78M
109.23M
442.73M
3.30M
446.03M
-
555.26M
696.00K
- 403137.00K
-
Value
23.06M
789.08M
386.64M
941.90M
-
539.37M
- 132266.00K
-
24.28M
- 143156.00K
- 165131.00K
260.00K
- 46.00K
-
225.25M
60.33M
-
15.28M
216.80M
201.53M
98.10M
- 9.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-7.354686458
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Biotechnology
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
29.62624061
$13.57
$30.58
$31.56
$32.57