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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
IBM
Primary Facts
Information Technology Services
Name:
-
Sector:
2.80B
Industry:
127.79
CEO:
Mrs. Virginia Rometty
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
2.42819822
-0.790437505
International Business Machines Corporation (XNYS:IBM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION (XNYS:IBM)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$128.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$131.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$128.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$134.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P500
This week:
$122.67
This month :
$116.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
903.18M
Market Cap Classification:
114.45B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.85%
$104.89
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$140.72
11.3%
$114.86
$151.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$134.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$104.02
$120.70
$137.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Information Technology Services
Sharpe Ratio:
IBM, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.81%
-0.893022908
Sharpe ratio is -89.30% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Information Technology Services
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.06%
Yearly returns:
3.03%
Comparison of returns:
-0.789818339
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -78.98% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
IBM is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.84
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -91.49% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.96%
Monthly Volatility:
4.38%
Yearly Volatility:
8.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
38.15%
-47.98%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -47.98% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.01%
Monthly VaR:
-8.96%
How Much Can the price of
Information Technology Services
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$107.73
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-62.06%
Severe Crash Probability
-17.92%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
8.33%
IBM is a 26.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
IBM is a 26.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Information Technology Services
0.838
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.702
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.746
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -30.70% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.24
-0.327
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -32.65% lower than peers
-0.307013458
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -31.30% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.055
-2.947
-3.726
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Information Technology Services
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -373% below the market average
-0.222
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -22.24% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.55%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.06%
Overall debt rating:
1.63%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.06%
-31.30%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $75.59
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -41.28% below the industry mean
-244.48%
EPS:
Five Billion Four Hundred Seventy-Seven Million Five Hundred Fifty-Nine Thousand One Hundred Fifty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -48.74% lower than the industry
-738.64%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -5.87% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -92.19% lower than the industry
-0.826678854
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.26%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -7% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Information Technology Services
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.9
-0.580777663
289.0794534
-0.557941602
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $99.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$59.59
-0.412757398
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -41.28% below the industry mean
-
-0.487408902
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -244.48% below industry average
-100.04%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -100.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 26.72%
$1.65
Previous Dividend: $1.65
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.65
Previous Dividend: $6.57
Expected next dividend best case: $1.66
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.64
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.63
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.18%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
2022-02-10--$1.64
2021-08-09--$1.64
2022-05-09--$1.65
2021-11-09--$1.64
2021-05-07--$1.64
-1.025003762
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
249.94%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
35.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
256.71%
-42.17%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.17% below industry average
-0.74
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.6x
-307.49%
2.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
23.60932804
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.32%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.67
12.40%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.67
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.449
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.028
Kurtosis
0.032
8.029
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.533
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Information Technology Services
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
30.62B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -247.72% lower than the industry
-273.20%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
30.62B
Effective Tax Rate:
4.24%
-0.88774817
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 4751.91% higher than the industry
-48.48%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -273.20% lower than the industry
4751.91%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -74.08% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -48.48% lower than the industry
-0.602698912
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$54.15
-1.033166018
Current ratio is -60.27% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -82.67% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -103.32% below industry average
-0.586073025
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.068182454
Profit generated per employee:
$14.22
111%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 111% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-2.365637389
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -237% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-2.365637389
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
2.45%
-0.921928978
Competitors/Peer firms of
Information Technology Services
$331.02
SERVICENOW, INC. (XNYS:NOW)
INFOSYS LIMITED (XNYS:INFY)
SHOPIFY INC. (XNYS:SHOP)
Sony Group Corporation (XNYS:SONY)
UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:UBER)
SAP SE (XNYS:SAP)
Abb Ltd (XNYS:ABB)
FIDELITY NATIONAL INFORMATION SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:FIS)
Current Analyst Ratings
$6.09
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�63%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
53.82B
23.20B
333%
6.54B
15.53B
16.93B
1.40B
676.00M
47.35B
55.00M
1.19B
6.00B
169%
135.00M
- 1917000.00K
53%
135.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
733.00M
Differed Income Tax :
1.26B
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
234.00M
Accounts Receivables:
1.08B
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 606000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 51000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
3.25B
Net Acquisitions:
- 281000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 637000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
9.93B
550.00M
10.48B
13.73B
1.78B
5.35B
31.33B
8.67B
56.11B
12.31B
1.77B
7.57B
15.52B
101.94B
203.89B
133.28B
3.45B
8.64B
1.80B
13.53B
8.43B
34.06B
48.90B
27.78B
80.11B
-
114.16B
57.60B
153.40B
- 22532000.0K
Value
24.15B
-
19.05B
133.21B
2.32B
57.55B
- 1025000.00K
682.00M
- 97000.00K
- 1358000.00K
- 1129000.00K
-
- 80000.00K
- 1475000.00K
4.06B
1.38B
- 5000.00K
3.26B
10.22B
6.96B
3.25B
- 450000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-490.5446644
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Information Technology Services
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
265.9055725
$135.65
$280.87
$296.68
$313.38