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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
HTLD
Primary Facts
Trucking
Name:
-
Sector:
15.56M
Industry:
14.74
CEO:
Mr. Michael Gerdin
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.743994997
-0.813167347
Heartland Express, Inc. (XNAS:HTLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
HEARTLAND EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:HTLD)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$14.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P124
This week:
$14.2
This month :
$13.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
78.94M
Market Cap Classification:
1.12B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-9.05%
$12.34
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.11
13.62%
$13.37
$17.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.24
$13.97
$15.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Trucking
Sharpe Ratio:
HTLD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.20%
-1.802868546
Sharpe ratio is -180.29% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Trucking
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
-0.04%
Monthly returns:
-0.18%
Yearly returns:
-8.72%
Comparison of returns:
-1.277105179
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -127.71% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
HTLD is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.17
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -212.85% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.76%
Monthly Volatility:
3.93%
Yearly Volatility:
7.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
34.26%
-67.55%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.55% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.65%
Monthly VaR:
-8.15%
How Much Can the price of
Trucking
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$12.55
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-56.47%
Severe Crash Probability
-16.30%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-1.43%
HTLD is a 15.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -1.43% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
HTLD is a 15.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Trucking
0.551
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.586
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.551
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.55
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -60.10% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.284
-0.571
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -57.15% lower than peers
-0.600975586
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-73.99%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.779
-1.829
-9.961
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Trucking
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -996% below the market average
-0.451
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -45.08% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -89.51% below the industry mean
-95.81%
EPS:
Eighty-Two Million Ninety Thousand Three Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 188.19% higher than the industry
-89.76%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -53.93% below the industry mean
-
3.87004003
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 31% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Trucking
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -73.99% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.41
-0.491330272
17.1975164
-0.142899495
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$7.68
-0.895137147
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -89.51% below the industry mean
-
1.881898805
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -95.81% below industry average
132.59%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 132.59% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
-
$0.02
Previous Dividend: $0.02
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.02
Previous Dividend: $0.58
Expected next dividend best case: $0.15
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.11
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.07
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 240.38%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/06/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/06/2022
2022-03-24--$0.02
2021-08-31--$0.02
2022-06-24--$0.02
2021-12-06--$0.02
2021-06-18--$0.02
4.160164572
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-25.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-19.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
125.60%
16.66%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is 16.66% above industry average
1.22
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.3x
27.18%
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
13.78229558
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.33%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.466
3.26%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.466
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.217
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.032
Kurtosis
-0.032
8.095
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.431
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Trucking
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
118.96M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -101.21% lower than the industry
-101.61%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
118.96M
Effective Tax Rate:
0.33%
0.11927232
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 27.71% higher than the industry
-33.50%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -101.61% lower than the industry
27.71%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 122.17% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.50% lower than the industry
-0.171489819
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.00
0.095644236
Current ratio is -17.15% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 387.00% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 9.56% above industry average
-0.276809186
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -28% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.312359629
Profit generated per employee:
$2.68
10%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 10% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.095676666
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -10% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.095676666
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Trucking
$17.77
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
Oxford Square Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXSQL)
OMEGA FLEX, INC. (XNAS:OFLX)
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
MARTEN TRANSPORT, LTD. (XNAS:MRTN)
COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCO)
WHFBZ
ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:AMR)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.04
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�8%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
606.16M
487.20M
78%
-
25.25M
25.25M
-
21.65M
534.10M
649.00K
649.00K
100.56M
139%
27.85M
649.00K
73%
27.85M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.78M
Differed Income Tax :
23.31M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 1744.00K
Change in Working Capital :
271.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.24M
Other Working Capital:
3.56M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4258.00K
Investments in PP&E:
37.59M
Net Acquisitions:
- 22029.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
187.09M
-
187.09M
61.58M
-
19.82M
268.49M
471.98M
168.30M
21.76M
-
-
16.59M
678.63M
-
947.11M
20.28M
-
3.45M
-
57.27M
77.54M
-
38.82M
127.04M
-
204.59M
907.00K
939.57M
-
Value
46.90M
- 197950.00K
742.53M
947.11M
-
-
-
-
13.65M
- 8381.00K
-
-
-
-
- 41.00K
- 41.00K
-
29.17M
202.94M
173.77M
37.59M
- 22029.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
15.58195708
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Trucking
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
15.36645
$15.37
$15.94
$16.53
$17.14