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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
HSY
Primary Facts
Confectioners
Name:
-
Sector:
515.40M
Industry:
224.05
CEO:
Ms. Michele Buck
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-1.029131502
0
The Hershey Company (XNYS:HSY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$224.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$226.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$224.85
Price Upper limit ($) :
$229.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P147
This week:
$216.5
This month :
$207.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
204.98M
Market Cap Classification:
45.66B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-16.53%
$190.28
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$242.77
10.46%
$205.33
$259.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$234.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$189.04
$214.10
$237.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Confectioners
Sharpe Ratio:
HSY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.57%
0.486074705
Sharpe ratio is 48.61% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Confectioners
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.36%
Yearly returns:
17.51%
Comparison of returns:
0.421827203
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 42.18% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
HSY is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.79
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 67.76% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.68%
Monthly Volatility:
3.75%
Yearly Volatility:
7.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
32.69%
-28.27%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -28.27% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.37%
Monthly VaR:
-7.54%
How Much Can the price of
Confectioners
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$196.06
This translates to price declining to:
-12%
This translates to price declining to:
-52.22%
Severe Crash Probability
-15.07%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-8.85%
HSY is a 6.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -8.85% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
HSY is a 6.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Confectioners
0.343
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.617
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.446
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.34
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -27.90% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.152
-0.539
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -53.90% lower than peers
-0.278964538
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -20.15% below industry mean WACC
56.29%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.631
1.032
7.648
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Confectioners
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 765% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.142
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -14.18% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.45%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.38%
Overall debt rating:
1.88%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.38%
-20.15%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $94.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 30.42% above the industry mean
19.54%
EPS:
One Billion Ten Million Two Hundred Fifty-Seven Thousand Seven Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -20.02% lower than the industry
30.33%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 80.04% above the industry mean
-
-0.15818123
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.49%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 25% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Confectioners
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 56.29% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.51
0.195947147
164.9902745
0.357958829
$7.58
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $120.32
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$45.57
0.304216415
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 30.42% above the industry mean
-
-0.200181617
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 19.54% above the industry average
1.03%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 1.03% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 11.21%
$0.90
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.90
Previous Dividend: $3.60
Expected next dividend best case: $0.95
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.85
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.83
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
2022-02-17--$0.90
2021-08-19--$0.90
2022-05-19--$0.90
2021-11-18--$0.90
2021-05-20--$0.80
-0.840371414
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
170.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Debt to assets ratio:
46.74%
Net debt to assets ratio:
150.95%
-37.03%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.03% below industry average
0.14
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
159.99%
1.49%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
19.77351966
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.21%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.603
-9.38%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.603
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.363
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.061
Kurtosis
0.06
22.260
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-1.528
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Confectioners
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
4.25B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 9.98% higher than the industry
50.60%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
4.25B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.95%
-0.222266098
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 47.32% higher than the industry
46.13%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 50.60% higher than the industry
47.32%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 13.88% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 46.13% higher than the industry
0.16866359
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$21.47
-1.061912406
Current ratio is 16.87% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -15.82% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -106.19% below industry average
0.20580654
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 21% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.252200148
Profit generated per employee:
$11.76
29%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 29% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.435245807
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 44% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.435245807
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Confectioners
$263.18
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
THE KROGER CO. (XNYS:KR)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
TYSON FOODS, INC. (XNYS:TSN)
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
Current Analyst Ratings
$6.92
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�50%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/3/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.34B
5.10B
182%
-
-
2.03B
-
-
7.13B
2.18M
126.34M
328.14M
103%
341.01M
- 251234.00K
83%
341.01M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
533.48M
Differed Income Tax :
91.04M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.06M
Change in Working Capital :
15.34M
Accounts Receivables:
- 16625.00K
Other Working Capital:
98.03M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3718.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
28.18M
Investments in PP&E:
656.47M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 22503.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/3/2022
2022
Q1
338.06M
-
338.06M
868.43M
1.03B
219.45M
2.46B
2.95B
2.62B
2.31B
109.38M
42.82M
159.93M
8.19B
-
10.65B
825.23M
912.59M
79.64M
-
827.81M
2.57B
4.40B
468.45M
5.16B
-
7.73B
221.55M
3.07B
- 242009.0K
Value
2.03B
- 135411.00K
2.92B
10.65B
-
5.31B
-
-
- 141463.00K
- 163966.00K
- 66690.00K
-
- 203350.00K
- 181084.00K
- 12330.00K
- 463454.00K
- 20258.00K
8.79M
338.06M
329.27M
656.47M
- 141063.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
0
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Confectioners
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
240.2773414
$240.28
$245.81
$251.47
$257.26