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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
HRL
Primary Facts
Packaged Foods
Name:
-
Sector:
334.40M
Industry:
46.39
CEO:
Mr. James Snee
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.456632035
-1.256351279
Hormel Foods Corporation (XNYS:HRL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
HORMEL FOODS CORPORATION (XNYS:HRL)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$46.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$46.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.76
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P26
This week:
$44.91
This month :
$43.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
546.20M
Market Cap Classification:
25.43B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-8.76%
$39.75
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.13
13.84%
$42.65
$53.28
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.50
$44.34
$49.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaged Foods
Sharpe Ratio:
HRL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.31%
-0.709497544
Sharpe ratio is -70.95% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaged Foods
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.07%
Yearly returns:
3.55%
Comparison of returns:
-0.577813971
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -57.78% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
HRL is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.83
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -83.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.57%
Monthly Volatility:
3.50%
Yearly Volatility:
7.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
30.52%
75.97%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been 75.97% above long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.20%
Monthly VaR:
-7.16%
How Much Can the price of
Packaged Foods
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$40.60
This translates to price declining to:
-12%
This translates to price declining to:
-49.59%
Severe Crash Probability
-14.31%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-13.45%
HRL is a 1.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -13.45% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
HRL is a 1.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaged Foods
0.118
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.333
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.12
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -79.83% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.086
-0.781
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -78.07% lower than peers
-0.79826419
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -41.94% below industry mean WACC
-39.66%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
-1.323
-0.258
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaged Foods
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -26% below the market average
-0.447
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -44.72% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.71%
Overall debt rating:
1.35%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.71%
-41.94%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $59.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -12.31% below the industry mean
-52.15%
EPS:
Nine Hundred Fifty-Five Million Five Hundred Ninety-Eight Thousand Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -0.90% lower than the industry
-114.52%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -25.10% below the industry mean
-
5.632590833
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaged Foods
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -39.66% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.41
-0.342321102
67.62049856
-0.313965425
$1.72
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $117.96
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$22.81
-0.123055706
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -12.31% below the industry mean
-
-0.009015979
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -52.15% below industry average
-210.87%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -210.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 13.85%
$0.26
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.26
Previous Dividend: $1.01
Expected next dividend best case: $0.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/03/2022
2022-01-14--$0.26
2021-07-09--$0.25
2022-04-08--$0.26
2021-10-15--$0.25
2021-04-09--$0.25
-7.123768449
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
35.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
19.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.57%
-52.14%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.14% below industry average
-0.89
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
94.62%
0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
9.675285353
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.25%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.347
-19.19%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.347
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.12
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
0.004
13.235
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.618
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaged Foods
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.09B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 59.60% higher than the industry
102.79%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.09B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-0.530892965
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 67.56% higher than the industry
22.27%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 102.79% higher than the industry
67.56%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -89.29% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 22.27% higher than the industry
-0.203239439
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$6.06
-0.767967074
Current ratio is -20.32% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 563.26% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -76.80% below industry average
-0.208602028
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.3371374
Profit generated per employee:
$2.74
-8%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -8% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-5.492575141
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -549% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-5.492575141
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaged Foods
$49.90
COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS PLC (XNAS:CCEP)
CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC. (XNYS:CHD)
MCCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED (XNYS:MKC)
Mexican Economic Development, Inc. (XNYS:FMX)
KELLOGG COMPANY (XNYS:K)
BF-A
BF-B
THE CLOROX COMPANY (XNYS:CLX)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.75
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
5/1/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.46B
10.37B
67%
-
-
907.36M
-
-
11.27B
24.26M
56.59M
251.54M
48%
227.03M
- 32329.00K
38%
227.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
239.57M
Differed Income Tax :
64.28M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
54.38M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2533.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
25.52M
Investments in PP&E:
383.76M
Net Acquisitions:
- 49359.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
1/30/2022
2022
Q1
824.43M
22.19M
846.63M
820.41M
1.39B
40.61M
3.09B
2.10B
4.93B
1.82B
286.49M
-
600.03M
9.73B
-
12.83B
799.37M
8.83M
89.13M
-
607.14M
1.42B
3.31B
714.69M
4.31B
-
5.72B
-
-
- 265524.0K
Value
907.36M
-
7.11B
12.83B
308.69M
3.32B
-
-
- 321.00K
- 49680.00K
- 2163.00K
-
-
- 132909.00K
11.05M
- 124019.00K
846.00K
210.90M
824.43M
613.53M
383.76M
- 49359.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-27.50442827
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaged Foods
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
48.3420217
$48.34
$48.73
$49.11
$49.50