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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
HLIT
Primary Facts
Communication Equipment
Name:
-
Sector:
- 29920.00K
Industry:
11
CEO:
Dr. Patrick Harshman
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.310170099
1.257494807
Harmonic Inc. (XNAS:HLIT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
HARMONIC INC. (XNAS:HLIT)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$11.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P319
This week:
$10.29
This month :
$9.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
105.06M
Market Cap Classification:
1.14B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-14.31%
$7.81
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.78
24.91%
$9.22
$14.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.69
$10.04
$12.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Communication Equipment
Sharpe Ratio:
HLIT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.30%
1.050803442
Sharpe ratio is 105.08% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Communication Equipment
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.47%
Yearly returns:
22.56%
Comparison of returns:
0.751039884
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 75.10% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
HLIT is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.93
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 16.64% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.20%
Monthly Volatility:
7.16%
Yearly Volatility:
14.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
62.44%
-14.12%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -14.12% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-6.48%
Monthly VaR:
-14.50%
How Much Can the price of
Communication Equipment
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$8.30
This translates to price declining to:
-25%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-29.00%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
75.34%
HLIT is a 104.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 75.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
HLIT is a 104.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Communication Equipment
1.001
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.647
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.774
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.00
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -16.38% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.637
-0.058
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -5.75% lower than peers
-0.163786538
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -0.92% below industry mean WACC
-89.44%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.095
7.182
7.992
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Communication Equipment
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 799% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.118
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -11.83% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.37%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.09%
Overall debt rating:
4.02%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.09%
-0.92%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -7.06% below the industry mean
-61.86%
EPS:
Fourteen Million Six Hundred Twenty-Eight Thousand Four Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -8.91% lower than the industry
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 48.45% above the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1133.99% lower than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -47% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Communication Equipment
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -89.44% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.76
-0.009878992
5.197366747
1.116456378
$0.00
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$5.17
-0.070600502
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -7.06% below the industry mean
-
-0.089096836
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -61.86% below industry average
-133.52%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -133.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
12.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.54%
-63.62%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -63.62% below industry average
-0.89
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-295.60%
0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
9.135746413
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.45%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.33
-40.25%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.33
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.109
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.018
Kurtosis
0.034
10.887
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
1.105
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Communication Equipment
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
273.78M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -48.88% lower than the industry
-27.85%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
273.78M
Effective Tax Rate:
42.50%
-1.552766825
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -41.65% lower than the industry
-81.95%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -27.85% lower than the industry
-41.65%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -89.12% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -81.95% lower than the industry
-0.366506419
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$1.34
-1.086902953
Current ratio is -36.65% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -108.69% below industry average
0.054480205
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 5% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.468939555
Profit generated per employee:
$0.36
-23%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -23% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
19.28940628
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 1929% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
19.28940628
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
23.93%
-11.33993119
Competitors/Peer firms of
Communication Equipment
$15.89
KAROOOOO LTD. (XNAS:KARO)
FARO TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:FARO)
CONSENSUS CLOUD SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:CCSI)
AVEPOINT, INC. (XNAS:AVPT)
EVO PAYMENTS, INC. (XNAS:EVOP)
GREENSKY, INC. (XNAS:GSKY)
BTRS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:BTRS)
PC CONNECTION, INC. (XNAS:CNXN)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.14
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/1/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
543.01M
269.23M
203%
107.54M
-
139.82M
-
1.17M
517.76M
-
9.46M
12.60M
27%
- 2385.00K
- 9725.00K
10%
- 2385.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 1529.00K
Differed Income Tax :
3.11M
Stock Based Compensation :
627.00K
Change in Working Capital :
7.59M
Accounts Receivables:
- 37277.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 12260.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
- 27482.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 2438.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/1/2022
2022
Q1
100.74M
-
100.74M
115.59M
81.82M
27.25M
325.40M
72.13M
239.63M
-
-
-
63.28M
375.05M
-
700.45M
52.52M
44.88M
-
75.47M
57.98M
230.86M
141.01M
43.92M
184.94M
-
415.79M
105.00K
- 2073288.00K
- 5037.0K
Value
248.52M
2.36B
284.65M
700.45M
-
185.89M
-
-
-
- 2438.00K
- 99.00K
2.97M
- 2141.00K
-
- 2693.00K
- 1967.00K
- 805.00K
100.61M
100.74M
133.43K
- 27482.00K
- 2438.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
33.23115099
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Communication Equipment
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
12.24775586
$12.25
$13.07
$13.95
$14.89