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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
HII
Primary Facts
Aerospace & Defense
Name:
-
Sector:
- 126000.00K
Industry:
226.8
CEO:
Mr. C. Michael Petters
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.667414112
-3.221023046
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (XNYS:HII) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HII)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$227.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$231.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$227.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$236.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P325
This week:
$216.95
This month :
$204.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
39.95M
Market Cap Classification:
9.16B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.29%
$182.74
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$251.72
10.06%
$201.88
$272.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$240.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$181.06
$213.10
$244.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Aerospace & Defense
Sharpe Ratio:
HII, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.08%
-1.115725487
Sharpe ratio is -111.57% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Aerospace & Defense
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.03%
Yearly returns:
1.49%
Comparison of returns:
-0.857746954
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -85.77% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
HII is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.80
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -105.51% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.12%
Monthly Volatility:
4.74%
Yearly Volatility:
9.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
41.29%
-68.91%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.91% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.34%
Monthly VaR:
-9.71%
How Much Can the price of
Aerospace & Defense
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$187.99
This translates to price declining to:
-17%
This translates to price declining to:
-67.29%
Severe Crash Probability
-19.43%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
17.46%
HII is a 37.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
HII is a 37.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Aerospace & Defense
0.637
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.608
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.597
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -36.77% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.314
-0.568
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -56.80% lower than peers
-0.367660134
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -27.04% below industry mean WACC
41.09%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.845
-16.269
-3.836
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Aerospace & Defense
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -384% below the market average
-0.252
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -25.24% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.77%
Overall debt rating:
2.19%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.77%
-27.04%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $77.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -90.30% below the industry mean
-69.76%
EPS:
Five Hundred Thirty-Three Million Eight Hundred Twenty-Six Thousand Five Hundred Ten Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -69.55% lower than the industry
-92.07%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 15.16% above the industry mean
-
-306.9004781
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.87%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -37% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Aerospace & Defense
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 41.09% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.57
-0.66861918
626.4094953
-0.637936523
$7.89
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $98.09
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$245.87
-0.902984227
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -90.30% below the industry mean
-
-0.695477488
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -69.76% below industry average
-1067.03%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -1067.03% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 8.77%
$1.18
Previous Dividend: $1.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.18
Previous Dividend: $4.68
Expected next dividend best case: $1.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.42%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
2022-02-24--$1.18
2021-08-26--$1.14
2022-05-26--$1.18
2021-11-24--$1.18
2021-05-27--$1.14
-1.107430117
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
108.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.1 years
Debt to assets ratio:
28.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
120.09%
-40.18%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.18% below industry average
0.32
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-2.37%
2.87%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
17.30209593
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.35%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
1.86%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.304
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.057
Kurtosis
0.07
4.561
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.294
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Aerospace & Defense
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.38B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -101.10% lower than the industry
-101.03%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.38B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.68%
-0.399944624
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 18.89% higher than the industry
139.81%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -101.03% lower than the industry
18.89%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 32.27% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 139.81% higher than the industry
-0.636530255
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$84.84
-0.992825819
Current ratio is -63.65% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -30690.05% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -99.28% below industry average
-0.352142757
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -35% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.372721809
Profit generated per employee:
$25.88
89%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 89% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.233423848
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 23% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.233423848
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Aerospace & Defense
$347.27
Regal Rexnord Corporation (XNYS:RRX)
NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:NLSN)
ACUITY BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:AYI)
OSHKOSH CORPORATION (XNYS:OSK)
CAE Inc. (XNYS:CAE)
DONALDSON COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:DCI)
Pacific Airport Group, S.A.B. de CV (XNYS:PAC)
XPO LOGISTICS, INC. (XNYS:XPO)
Current Analyst Ratings
$13.33
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.82B
8.45B
56%
-
909.00M
909.00M
-
2.00M
9.36B
-
94.00M
315.00M
42%
89.00M
121.00M
26%
89.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
140.00M
Differed Income Tax :
87.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.00M
Change in Working Capital :
9.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 324000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 34000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 83000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
330.00M
-
330.00M
2.19B
188.00M
77.00M
2.79B
3.33B
2.63B
1.12B
-
-
690.00M
7.77B
-
10.56B
544.00M
-
-
685.00M
1.19B
2.42B
3.39B
1.63B
5.31B
-
7.74B
1.00M
3.98B
- 987000.0K
Value
911.00M
-
2.82B
10.56B
-
3.39B
-
-
- 43000.00K
- 43000.00K
- 100000.00K
-
- 10000.00K
- 47000.00K
- 14000.00K
- 171000.00K
-
- 297000.00K
330.00M
627.00M
- 83000.00K
- 43000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
830.9412305
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Aerospace & Defense
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
293.6896908
$293.69
$306.26
$319.36
$333.02