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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
HAYN
Primary Facts
Metal Fabrication
Name:
-
Sector:
- 27169.00K
Industry:
38.87
CEO:
Mr. Michael Shor
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-8.542808844
0
Haynes International, Inc. (XNAS:HAYN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
HAYNES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:HAYN)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$39.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P423
This week:
$36.31
This month :
$33.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.46M
Market Cap Classification:
482.17M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-14.96%
$27.41
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.31
20.5%
$32.43
$50.76
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.98
$35.37
$43.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Metal Fabrication
Sharpe Ratio:
HAYN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.92%
-0.251562987
Sharpe ratio is -25.16% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Metal Fabrication
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.28%
Yearly returns:
13.29%
Comparison of returns:
-0.243563049
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -24.36% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
HAYN is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.71
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -36.96% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.24%
Monthly Volatility:
7.24%
Yearly Volatility:
14.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
63.10%
-33.51%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.51% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-6.59%
Monthly VaR:
-14.74%
How Much Can the price of
Metal Fabrication
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$28.98
This translates to price declining to:
-25%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-29.48%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
78.26%
HAYN is a 108.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 78.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
HAYN is a 108.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Metal Fabrication
1.359
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.577
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.883
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 5.19% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.358
-0.112
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -11.21% lower than peers
0.051943025
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 4.51% above industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.248
-0.851
0.526
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Metal Fabrication
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 53% compared to market & is healthy
0.038
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 3.83% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
12.45%
After-tax cost of debt:
40.10%
Overall debt rating:
31.68%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
40.10%
4.51%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.06
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 5.56% above the industry mean
-919.48%
EPS:
Sixteen Million Seventy-Two Thousand One Hundred Ten Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-222.07%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -24.03% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -136.70% lower than the industry
-0.96389072
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 91.14%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -61% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Metal Fabrication
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.5
-0.74133493
77.30272967
-0.497171702
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.02
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$32.09
0.055572722
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 5.56% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -919.48% below industry average
-679.62%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -679.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 17.44%
$0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.88
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-02-28--$0.22
2021-08-31--$0.22
2022-05-31--$0.22
2021-11-30--$0.22
2021-05-28--$0.22
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-3.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-2.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.14%
-99.69%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.69% below industry average
-0.95
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
25.32%
91.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
9.897883544
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.49%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.354
-22.99%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.354
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.125
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
0.085
4.633
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.570
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Metal Fabrication
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
71.55M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -40.99% lower than the industry
-18.28%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
71.55M
Effective Tax Rate:
5.92%
-0.113412513
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -73.45% lower than the industry
-68.73%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -18.28% lower than the industry
-73.45%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -94.72% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -68.73% lower than the industry
0.201331994
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.04
1.494210568
Current ratio is 20.13% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -96.39% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 149.42% above industry average
-0.360349249
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.609758749
Profit generated per employee:
$3.46
-77%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -77% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
3.478133862
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 348% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
3.478133862
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-8.35%
-1.366951458
Competitors/Peer firms of
Metal Fabrication
$47.76
AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:AMSC)
EAGL
POWELL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:POWL)
Castor Maritime Inc. (XNAS:CTRM)
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CVLG)
MESA AIR GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MESA)
VKTXW
DASEKE, INC. (XNAS:DSKE)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.29
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
399.91M
328.36M
71%
3.60M
-
45.62M
-
-
377.58M
25.00K
1.40M
19.32M
42%
6.26M
51.00K
21%
6.26M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.66M
Differed Income Tax :
4.75M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.68M
Change in Working Capital :
954.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 35795.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2202.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 84.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 23834.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3335.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
12/31/2021
2022
Q1
14.26M
-
14.26M
58.51M
271.42M
4.87M
349.06M
146.15M
4.79M
5.47M
-
14.66M
10.48M
181.55M
-
530.61M
39.81M
3.00M
417.00K
2.50M
18.72M
64.02M
486.00K
112.74M
126.38M
-
190.40M
13.00K
102.87M
- 11772.0K
Value
49.23M
249.10M
340.21M
530.61M
-
3.49M
-
-
-
- 3335.00K
- 5000.00K
-
- 6600.00K
- 2811.00K
8.06M
- 6354.00K
59.00K
- 33464.00K
14.26M
47.73M
- 23834.00K
- 3335.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
0
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Metal Fabrication
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
33.67367987
$33.67
$36.75
$40.10
$43.77