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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
GIS
Primary Facts
Packaged Foods
Name:
-
Sector:
265.80M
Industry:
76.72
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Harmening
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
2.548201176
-2.430549283
General Mills, Inc. (XNYS:GIS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$76.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$77.55
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$76.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$78.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P29
This week:
$74.31
This month :
$71.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
595.71M
Market Cap Classification:
44.86B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-11.41%
$65.94
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.69
11.78%
$70.75
$87.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$79.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.55
$73.55
$81.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaged Foods
Sharpe Ratio:
GIS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.31%
1.986107437
Sharpe ratio is 198.61% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaged Foods
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.35%
Yearly returns:
16.81%
Comparison of returns:
0.996893681
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 99.69% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
GIS is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.29
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 71.69% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.56%
Monthly Volatility:
3.50%
Yearly Volatility:
6.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
30.48%
-71.60%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.60% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.14%
Monthly VaR:
-7.02%
How Much Can the price of
Packaged Foods
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$67.81
This translates to price declining to:
-12%
This translates to price declining to:
-48.67%
Severe Crash Probability
-14.05%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-15.05%
GIS is -0.84% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -15.05% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
GIS is -0.84% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaged Foods
0.323
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.317
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.718
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.32
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -44.96% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.174
-0.545
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -54.45% lower than peers
-0.44957869
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
13.22%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.015
8.124
7.290
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaged Foods
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 729% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.252
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -25.19% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $41.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 5.81% above the industry mean
-77.00%
EPS:
Two Billion Six Hundred Sixty-One Million Seven Hundred Seventy-Seven Thousand Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.15% lower than the industry
-51.78%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -3.86% below the industry mean
-
-0.439870041
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.60%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -8% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaged Foods
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 13.22% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.35
-0.5509324
170.7900592
-0.550793528
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $66.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$31.27
0.058121583
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 5.81% above the industry mean
-
-0.211534434
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.00% below industry average
-70.91%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -70.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 13.86%
$0.51
Previous Dividend: $0.51
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.51
Previous Dividend: $2.04
Expected next dividend best case: $0.52
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.50
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.41%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/08/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/01/2022
2022-01-07--$0.51
2021-07-08--$0.51
2022-04-07--$0.51
2021-10-07--$0.51
2021-04-08--$0.51
-2.130966245
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
126.31%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
37.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
106.55%
-40.74%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.74% below industry average
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-101.67%
5.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
10.32757478
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.20%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.367
-14.45%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.367
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.135
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.01
Kurtosis
0.009
10.941
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.140
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaged Foods
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
6.22B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 150.55% higher than the industry
234.54%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
6.22B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.19%
-0.501770483
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 56.00% higher than the industry
110.38%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 234.54% higher than the industry
56.00%
Financial Leverage:
-
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 110.38% higher than the industry
-0.716789326
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$17.34
-2.1203994
Current ratio is -71.68% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -43.99% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -212.04% below industry average
-0.271972901
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.07559837
Profit generated per employee:
$5.69
33%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 33% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-3.197528865
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -320% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-3.197528865
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaged Foods
$106.27
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
STZ-B
THE KROGER CO. (XNYS:KR)
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
TYSON FOODS, INC. (XNYS:TSN)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.42
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�63%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
2/27/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
18.63B
12.41B
134%
-
-
3.16B
-
- 800.00K
15.57B
-
-
577.40M
73%
558.00M
- 260100.00K
59%
558.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
627.00M
Differed Income Tax :
145.80M
Stock Based Compensation :
19.60M
Change in Working Capital :
26.80M
Accounts Receivables:
- 389500.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 214900.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1815200.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 59900.00K
Investments in PP&E:
369.80M
Net Acquisitions:
- 104000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1192900.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
8/29/2021
2022
Q1
710.60M
-
710.60M
1.69B
1.94B
1.98B
6.32B
3.34B
14.55B
6.83B
-
-
1.29B
26.01B
-
32.33B
3.29B
2.63B
-
-
2.22B
8.14B
10.33B
1.81B
14.21B
-
22.35B
75.50M
17.38B
- 2397700.0K
Value
3.16B
- 5370000.00K
9.69B
32.04B
-
12.95B
-
-
- 1000.00K
- 1297900.00K
- 612100.00K
-
- 150100.00K
- 312300.00K
1.27B
195.00M
- 18100.00K
- 751200.00K
754.00M
1.51B
369.80M
- 104000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-18.04022739
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaged Foods
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
97.53305545
$97.53
$99.65
$101.81
$104.01